Tesla and SpaceX each aim to generate 100 gigawatts of solar per year.
Predictor: Elon Musk · ep#232 "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232" · source
Prediction text
Tesla and SpaceX each aim to generate 100 gigawatts of solar per year. | Elon said that both SpaceX and Tesla uh have an objective of generating how much solar was it? 100 megawws per year each I think was from last week. G was it gigawatts? 100 g gawatts gigawatts.
Watch events: SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence
Verbatim quote
Elon said that both SpaceX and Tesla uh have an objective of generating how much solar was it? 100 megawws per year each I think was from last week. G was it gigawatts? 100 g gawatts gigawatts.
Predictor: Elon Musk
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Elon Musk is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y
Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-05-01 → 2027-03-31pendingTesla closes Suzhou Maxwell or comparable Chinese equipment dealHow: Tesla announces or trade press confirms (Reuters, Electrek) finalized purchase agreement for $2.9B+ in Chinese solar manufacturing equipment for US deploymentSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
- 2026-05-01 → 2027-06-30pendingTesla solar manufacturing capacity announcement substantiated with permitsHow: Tesla files building permits or announces specific factory site for >=10 GW/year US solar PV manufacturing — verified via permit search or 10-Q disclosureSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingSpaceX commits public solar manufacturing capacity beyond Starlink supplyHow: SpaceX announces dedicated solar manufacturing facility or partnership distinct from Starlink satellite solar arrays, targeting terrestrial PV deployment >=10 GW/yearSource: llm_enrichedconf 30%
- 2027-12-01 → 2029-12-31pendingTesla US solar PV production reaches 10 GW/year run rateHow: Tesla 10-Q or 10-K discloses US solar PV manufacturing run rate >=10 GW/year — first interim milestone toward 100 GWSource: llm_enrichedconf 35%
- 2028-06-01 → 2031-12-31pendingTesla and SpaceX reach combined 100 GW/year US solar manufacturing capacityHow: Cumulative Tesla + SpaceX US solar PV manufacturing run rate reaches 100 GW/year as confirmed in audited annual reports — would partially fulfill the predictionSource: llm_enrichedconf 20%
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
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Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (22)
Adverse (4)
Prerequisites (4)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| correlate | S_COMPUTE_10GW_2028 | Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028 | compute_scale | — |
| correlate | S_GRID_50GW_2027 | 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| killer | TK15 | SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | — | — |
| killer | TK06 | China-Taiwan Military Conflict | — | — |
Dependents (2)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "100 gigawatts/year each",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
"mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
"role": "Cited-Executive",
"caveats": "Speakers uncertain about exact units/timeframe",
"context": "you saw la in the last pod uh Elon said that both SpaceX and Tesla uh have an objective of generating how much solar was it? 100 megawws per year each I think was from last week. G was it gigawatts? 100 g gawatts gigawatts. So, I mean that's going to be an impressive amount. The question is what the time scale is.",
"to_year": 2035,
"cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
"verbatim": "Elon said that both SpaceX and Tesla uh have an objective of generating how much solar was it? 100 megawws per year each I think was from last week. G was it gigawatts? 100 g gawatts gigawatts.",
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"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
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"source_url": "https://electrek.co/2026/03/20/tesla-tsla-2-9-billion-chinese-solar-equipment-100-gw-us-manufacturing/",
"expected_date": "2026-10-15",
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"source_url": "https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/01/26/elon-musk-at-wef-spacex-and-tesla-to-produce-100-gw-each-of-pv-per-year-in-the-u-s-this-decade/",
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},
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},
{
"kind": "scenario_signal",
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"status": "pending",
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"expected_date": "2027-12-31",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_post_event",
"label": "Tesla US solar PV production reaches 10 GW/year run rate",
"source": "llm_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.35,
"expected_date": "2028-12-15",
"research_origin": "training",
"expected_date_range": {
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},
"measurement_criterion": "Tesla 10-Q or 10-K disclos
... (truncated)