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232_045predictionEnergySpaceX

Tesla and SpaceX each aim to generate 100 gigawatts of solar per year.

Predictor: Elon Musk · ep#232 "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
47.8%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30
Edges in / out
4 / 2
Tickers exposed
36

Prediction text

Tesla and SpaceX each aim to generate 100 gigawatts of solar per year. | Elon said that both SpaceX and Tesla uh have an objective of generating how much solar was it? 100 megawws per year each I think was from last week. G was it gigawatts? 100 g gawatts gigawatts.

Watch events: SpaceX IPO roadshow (Jun 2026); Starship V3 orbital test; Starlink V3 launch cadence

Verbatim quote

From episode "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232"
Elon said that both SpaceX and Tesla uh have an objective of generating how much solar was it? 100 megawws per year each I think was from last week. G was it gigawatts? 100 g gawatts gigawatts.

Predictor: Elon Musk

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0142
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Elon Musk is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: energy_grid_rebuild_5y

Linked via embedding similarity 0.585

Major grid expansion (>50GW) within 5y of announce

Base rate
50.0%
3/6 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 47.8% → blend 47.8% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-04-302026-04-30
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 47.8%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 pending
  1. 2026-05-01 → 2027-03-31pendingTesla closes Suzhou Maxwell or comparable Chinese equipment deal
    How: Tesla announces or trade press confirms (Reuters, Electrek) finalized purchase agreement for $2.9B+ in Chinese solar manufacturing equipment for US deployment
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
  2. 2026-05-01 → 2027-06-30pendingTesla solar manufacturing capacity announcement substantiated with permits
    How: Tesla files building permits or announces specific factory site for >=10 GW/year US solar PV manufacturing — verified via permit search or 10-Q disclosure
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingSpaceX commits public solar manufacturing capacity beyond Starlink supply
    How: SpaceX announces dedicated solar manufacturing facility or partnership distinct from Starlink satellite solar arrays, targeting terrestrial PV deployment >=10 GW/year
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 30%
  4. 2027-12-01 → 2029-12-31pendingTesla US solar PV production reaches 10 GW/year run rate
    How: Tesla 10-Q or 10-K discloses US solar PV manufacturing run rate >=10 GW/year — first interim milestone toward 100 GW
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 35%
  5. 2028-06-01 → 2031-12-31pendingTesla and SpaceX reach combined 100 GW/year US solar manufacturing capacity
    How: Cumulative Tesla + SpaceX US solar PV manufacturing run rate reaches 100 GW/year as confirmed in audited annual reports — would partially fulfill the prediction
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 20%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 48%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z47.8%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 47.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z50.0%+2.2pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.500 blend=0.500 w_in=0.30 energy_grid_rebuild_5y
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z47.8%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 47.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.500-0.032
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.500-0.014

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_040
Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be bAlex Wissner-Gross
26.2%0.4500.050-0.023
prereq232_049
Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disaAlex Wissner-Gross
19.0%0.3000.050-0.023

Ticker exposure

36 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (22)

ASTSIRDMKRMNBKSYRKLBPLFLYNNEMNTSGSATLUNRAMZNBAIFNNYLHXLMTNEENOCNRGONRTXTSLA

Adverse (4)

SESVSATDISHLUMN

Prerequisites (4)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
correlateS_COMPUTE_10GW_2028Compute: 10GW total by Dec 2028compute_scale
correlateS_GRID_50GW_202750GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027energy_grid_expansion
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (2)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_040Earth-scale Dyson swarm in solar synchronous orbit will be built regardless of physics.Space
prereq232_049Dyson swarm of AI orbital data centers will be built by disassembling the moon via mass drivers.Space

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "100 gigawatts/year each",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "caveats": "Speakers uncertain about exact units/timeframe",
  "context": "you saw la in the last pod uh Elon said that both SpaceX and Tesla uh have an objective of generating how much solar was it? 100 megawws per year each I think was from last week. G was it gigawatts? 100 g gawatts gigawatts. So, I mean that's going to be an impressive amount. The question is what the time scale is.",
  "to_year": 2035,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "Elon said that both SpaceX and Tesla uh have an objective of generating how much solar was it? 100 megawws per year each I think was from last week. G was it gigawatts? 100 g gawatts gigawatts.",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "unspecified",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tesla closes Suzhou Maxwell or comparable Chinese equipment deal",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://electrek.co/2026/03/20/tesla-tsla-2-9-billion-chinese-solar-equipment-100-gw-us-manufacturing/",
      "expected_date": "2026-10-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-03-31",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla announces or trade press confirms (Reuters, Electrek) finalized purchase agreement for $2.9B+ in Chinese solar manufacturing equipment for US deployment"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tesla solar manufacturing capacity announcement substantiated with permits",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2026/01/26/elon-musk-at-wef-spacex-and-tesla-to-produce-100-gw-each-of-pv-per-year-in-the-u-s-this-decade/",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-29",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla files building permits or announces specific factory site for >=10 GW/year US solar PV manufacturing — verified via permit search or 10-Q disclosure"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX commits public solar manufacturing capacity beyond Starlink supply",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.3,
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX announces dedicated solar manufacturing facility or partnership distinct from Starlink satellite solar arrays, targeting terrestrial PV deployment >=10 GW/year"
    },
    {
      "kind": "scenario_signal",
      "label": "Scenario fires: 50GW dedicated AI/data center grid by Dec 2027",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "S_GRID_50GW_2027",
      "expected_date": "2027-12-31",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Tesla US solar PV production reaches 10 GW/year run rate",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.35,
      "expected_date": "2028-12-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2029-12-31",
        "from": "2027-12-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla 10-Q or 10-K disclos
... (truncated)