The 'Space 60' framework — mapping 60 public companies spanning the full aerospace supply chain — will drive value capture well beyond prime contractors to encompass raw-material suppliers, component manufacturers, and satellite-service operators, fund...
Predictor: Morgan Stanley
Prediction text
The 'Space 60' framework — mapping 60 public companies spanning the full aerospace supply chain — will drive value capture well beyond prime contractors to encompass raw-material suppliers, component manufacturers, and satellite-service operators, fundamentally repricing the entire space ecosystem. | Next MS Space 60 constituent rebalance
Key catalyst: Next MS Space 60 constituent rebalance
Watch events: MS Space 60 quarterly updates; thematic-ETF flows
Resolution evidence
Seeking Alpha confirms MS Space 60 published 2026; Procure Space ETF (UFO), ARK Space (ARKX) aligned; thematic aerospace flows accelerating.
Predictor: Morgan Stanley
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Morgan Stanley is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-01hitSpaceX confidential IPO filing pulls capital into broader Space 60 universeHow: SpaceX confidentially files S-1 with SEC targeting June 2026 listing at >$1.75T valuation, triggering coverage of supply-chain exposure stocksSource: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/19/spacexs-2-trillion-ipo-is-coming-these-6-stocks-will-ride-the-new-space-economy-into-orbit/conf 85%Notes: HIT — SpaceX confidential filing reported; institutional capital flow to ecosystem confirmed by 24/7 Wall St coverage.
- 2026-04-13hitMorgan Stanley publishes 'Space 60' framework with 7 subcategoriesHow: Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas publishes initial Space 60 list mapping 60 publicly-traded space supply-chain stocks across 7 subcategoriesSource: https://seekingalpha.com/news/4574518-morgan-stanley-maps-60-stocks-across-the-space-tradeconf 99%Notes: HIT — Space 60 framework explicitly published with full supply-chain coverage as predicted.
- 2026-04-13hit≥24 of Space 60 constituents return >100% over trailing 12 monthsHow: At least 24 of the 60 listed names show trailing-12-month returns >100% per Morgan Stanley's accompanying noteSource: https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8790268/morgan-stanley-expands-space-investment-insights-with-space-60-listconf 95%Notes: HIT — 24 stocks more than doubled in trailing year per launch coverage; confirms 'value capture beyond primes'.
- 2026-10-12pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-10-01 → 2027-04-30pendingFirst Morgan Stanley Space 60 rebalance / constituent change publicationHow: Morgan Stanley publishes follow-up note adding/removing names from the Space 60 list (the prediction's named milestone)Source: Morgan Stanley research note distribution (sell-side)conf 65%Notes: Sell-side baskets typically rebalance 6-12 months post-launch.
- 2027-07-24pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2028-05-04pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
- 2027-04-01 → 2030-05-31pendingAggregate Space 60 market cap doubles vs April-2026 baselineHow: Combined market cap of the 60 named constituents doubles vs the April 13, 2026 launch baseline (excluding new SpaceX listing)Source: Bloomberg / FactSet basket aggregationconf 45%Notes: Cascade — confirms the 'fundamental repricing' thesis stated in the prediction.
No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK15 SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.720 | -0.011 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
No outgoing edges.
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (12)
Adverse (3)
Prerequisites (1)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK15 | SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure | — | — |
Dependents (0)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No dependents | ||||
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | partial | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Seeking Alpha confirms MS Space 60 published 2026; Procure Space ETF (UFO), ARK Space (ARKX) aligned; thematic aerospace flows accelerating. |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "60 companies",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Cited-Firm",
"context": "Key beneficiaries: RKLB, ASTS, LMT, NOC, BA, plus Space-60 constituents. Complements SPC_001 / SPC_002. Thematic-ETF / index-product anchor.",
"to_year": 2030,
"conv_cues": "named framework; enumerated scope",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "2026-2030",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "SpaceX confidential IPO filing pulls capital into broader Space 60 universe",
"notes": "HIT — SpaceX confidential filing reported; institutional capital flow to ecosystem confirmed by 24/7 Wall St coverage.",
"source": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/19/spacexs-2-trillion-ipo-is-coming-these-6-stocks-will-ride-the-new-space-economy-into-orbit/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/19/spacexs-2-trillion-ipo-is-coming-these-6-stocks-will-ride-the-new-space-economy-into-orbit/",
"expected_date": "2026-04-01",
"observed_date": "2026-04-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "SpaceX confidentially files S-1 with SEC targeting June 2026 listing at >$1.75T valuation, triggering coverage of supply-chain exposure stocks"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Morgan Stanley publishes 'Space 60' framework with 7 subcategories",
"notes": "HIT — Space 60 framework explicitly published with full supply-chain coverage as predicted.",
"source": "https://seekingalpha.com/news/4574518-morgan-stanley-maps-60-stocks-across-the-space-trade",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://seekingalpha.com/news/4574518-morgan-stanley-maps-60-stocks-across-the-space-trade",
"expected_date": "2026-04-13",
"observed_date": "2026-04-13",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas publishes initial Space 60 list mapping 60 publicly-traded space supply-chain stocks across 7 subcategories"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "≥24 of Space 60 constituents return >100% over trailing 12 months",
"notes": "HIT — 24 stocks more than doubled in trailing year per launch coverage; confirms 'value capture beyond primes'.",
"source": "https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8790268/morgan-stanley-expands-space-investment-insights-with-space-60-list",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8790268/morgan-stanley-expands-space-investment-insights-with-space-60-list",
"expected_date": "2026-04-13",
"observed_date": "2026-04-13",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "At least 24 of the 60 listed names show trailing-12-month returns >100% per Morgan Stanley's accompanying note"
},
{
"kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
"label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.05,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"expected_date": "2026-10-12",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First Morgan Stanley Space 60 rebalance / constituent change publication",
"notes": "Sell-side baskets typically rebalance 6-12 months post-launch.",
"source": "Morgan Stanley research note distribution (sell-side)",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_date": "2027-01-14",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-04-30",
"from": "20
... (truncated)