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SPC_003predictionMarkets/StocksSpace-60-framework

The 'Space 60' framework — mapping 60 public companies spanning the full aerospace supply chain — will drive value capture well beyond prime contractors to encompass raw-material suppliers, component manufacturers, and satellite-service operators, fund...

Predictor: Morgan Stanley

Prior probability
72.0%
Current probability
65.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
in_progress
Window
2026-01-01 – 2030-05-31
Edges in / out
1 / 0
Tickers exposed
20

Prediction text

The 'Space 60' framework — mapping 60 public companies spanning the full aerospace supply chain — will drive value capture well beyond prime contractors to encompass raw-material suppliers, component manufacturers, and satellite-service operators, fundamentally repricing the entire space ecosystem. | Next MS Space 60 constituent rebalance

Key catalyst: Next MS Space 60 constituent rebalance

Watch events: MS Space 60 quarterly updates; thematic-ETF flows

Resolution evidence

Status: in_progress

Seeking Alpha confirms MS Space 60 published 2026; Procure Space ETF (UFO), ARK Space (ARKX) aligned; thematic aerospace flows accelerating.

Predictor: Morgan Stanley

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.633
Brier
0.0442
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 2 resolved
Hit rate
50.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Morgan Stanley is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 72%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 65.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 fired ✓ · 5 pending
  1. 2026-04-01hitSpaceX confidential IPO filing pulls capital into broader Space 60 universe
    How: SpaceX confidentially files S-1 with SEC targeting June 2026 listing at >$1.75T valuation, triggering coverage of supply-chain exposure stocks
    Source: https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/19/spacexs-2-trillion-ipo-is-coming-these-6-stocks-will-ride-the-new-space-economy-into-orbit/conf 85%
    Notes: HIT — SpaceX confidential filing reported; institutional capital flow to ecosystem confirmed by 24/7 Wall St coverage.
  2. 2026-04-13hitMorgan Stanley publishes 'Space 60' framework with 7 subcategories
    How: Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas publishes initial Space 60 list mapping 60 publicly-traded space supply-chain stocks across 7 subcategories
    Source: https://seekingalpha.com/news/4574518-morgan-stanley-maps-60-stocks-across-the-space-tradeconf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Space 60 framework explicitly published with full supply-chain coverage as predicted.
  3. 2026-04-13hit≥24 of Space 60 constituents return >100% over trailing 12 months
    How: At least 24 of the 60 listed names show trailing-12-month returns >100% per Morgan Stanley's accompanying note
    Source: https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8790268/morgan-stanley-expands-space-investment-insights-with-space-60-listconf 95%
    Notes: HIT — 24 stocks more than doubled in trailing year per launch coverage; confirms 'value capture beyond primes'.
  4. 2026-10-12pendingQ1 window check-in (25%)
  5. 2026-10-01 → 2027-04-30pendingFirst Morgan Stanley Space 60 rebalance / constituent change publication
    How: Morgan Stanley publishes follow-up note adding/removing names from the Space 60 list (the prediction's named milestone)
    Source: Morgan Stanley research note distribution (sell-side)conf 65%
    Notes: Sell-side baskets typically rebalance 6-12 months post-launch.
  6. 2027-07-24pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  7. 2028-05-04pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)
  8. 2027-04-01 → 2030-05-31pendingAggregate Space 60 market cap doubles vs April-2026 baseline
    How: Combined market cap of the 60 named constituents doubles vs the April 13, 2026 launch baseline (excluding new SpaceX listing)
    Source: Bloomberg / FactSet basket aggregationconf 45%
    Notes: Cascade — confirms the 'fundamental repricing' thesis stated in the prediction.

No downstream cascades — this prediction is a leaf in the dependency graph.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 65%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z65.1%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 66.2% → 65.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z66.2%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 68.2% → 66.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z68.2%-3.8pp
Network propagation: 72.0% → 68.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK15
SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure
12.0%0.0500.720-0.011

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

No outgoing edges.

Ticker exposure

20 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (12)

GSATIRDMASTSBKSYRKLBPLAMZNBALHXLMTNOCRTX

Adverse (3)

DISHVSATSES

Prerequisites (1)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK15SpaceX Starship Catastrophic Failure

Dependents (0)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
No dependents

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29partialthesis_timeline_v1.0_importSeeking Alpha confirms MS Space 60 published 2026; Procure Space ETF (UFO), ARK Space (ARKX) aligned; thematic aerospace flows accelerating.

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "60 companies",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Cited-Firm",
  "context": "Key beneficiaries: RKLB, ASTS, LMT, NOC, BA, plus Space-60 constituents. Complements SPC_001 / SPC_002. Thematic-ETF / index-product anchor.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "conv_cues": "named framework; enumerated scope",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "2026-2030",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "SpaceX confidential IPO filing pulls capital into broader Space 60 universe",
      "notes": "HIT — SpaceX confidential filing reported; institutional capital flow to ecosystem confirmed by 24/7 Wall St coverage.",
      "source": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/19/spacexs-2-trillion-ipo-is-coming-these-6-stocks-will-ride-the-new-space-economy-into-orbit/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/04/19/spacexs-2-trillion-ipo-is-coming-these-6-stocks-will-ride-the-new-space-economy-into-orbit/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceX confidentially files S-1 with SEC targeting June 2026 listing at >$1.75T valuation, triggering coverage of supply-chain exposure stocks"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Morgan Stanley publishes 'Space 60' framework with 7 subcategories",
      "notes": "HIT — Space 60 framework explicitly published with full supply-chain coverage as predicted.",
      "source": "https://seekingalpha.com/news/4574518-morgan-stanley-maps-60-stocks-across-the-space-trade",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://seekingalpha.com/news/4574518-morgan-stanley-maps-60-stocks-across-the-space-trade",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-13",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-13",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas publishes initial Space 60 list mapping 60 publicly-traded space supply-chain stocks across 7 subcategories"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "≥24 of Space 60 constituents return >100% over trailing 12 months",
      "notes": "HIT — 24 stocks more than doubled in trailing year per launch coverage; confirms 'value capture beyond primes'.",
      "source": "https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8790268/morgan-stanley-expands-space-investment-insights-with-space-60-list",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.gurufocus.com/news/8790268/morgan-stanley-expands-space-investment-insights-with-space-60-list",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-13",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-13",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "At least 24 of the 60 listed names show trailing-12-month returns >100% per Morgan Stanley's accompanying note"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-10-12",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First Morgan Stanley Space 60 rebalance / constituent change publication",
      "notes": "Sell-side baskets typically rebalance 6-12 months post-launch.",
      "source": "Morgan Stanley research note distribution (sell-side)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "expected_date": "2027-01-14",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-04-30",
        "from": "20
... (truncated)