A mouse will have a full brain uploaded in years, not decades; first human whole-brain emulation also years away

A mouse will have a full brain uploaded in years, not decades; first human whole-brain emulation also years away | This isn't happening anytime soon just to to anchor expectations appropriately. We don't think we're months away from a mouse or a human. But I think the right way to think about it is at this point it's going to be years not decades before we get to the first mouse and the first human wholeb brain emulations.

Watch events: Neuralink human trial enrollment; first commercial BCI

This isn't happening anytime soon just to to anchor expectations appropriately. We don't think we're months away from a mouse or a human. But I think the right way to think about it is at this point it's going to be years not decades before we get to the first mouse and the first human wholeb brain emulations.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "years",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "not months away",
  "context": "This isn't happening anytime soon just to to anchor expectations appropriately. We don't think we're months away from a mouse or a human. But I think the right way to think about it is at this point it's going to be years not decades before we get to the first mouse and the first human wholeb brain emulations.",
  "to_year": 2035,
  "verbatim": "This isn't happening anytime soon just to to anchor expectations appropriately. We don't think we're months away from a mouse or a human. But I think the right way to think about it is at this point it's going to be years not decades before we get to the first mouse and the first human wholeb brain emulations.",
  "conv_cues": "going to be years not decades",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "Years, not decades",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Mouse-vision connectome (MICrONS) full release with simulation-grade data",
      "notes": "HIT — Princeton/MICrONS mouse visual cortex connectome released April 2025 with 500M+ synapses.",
      "source": "Princeton April 2025: half-billion connections in mouse vision cortex mapped, MICrONS consortium",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.princeton.edu/news/2025/04/09/first-time-scientists-map-half-billion-connections-allow-mice-see",
      "expected_date": "2025-04-09",
      "observed_date": "2025-04-09",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public release of mouse visual cortex connectome with >0.5 billion synapses at synapse-level resolution, sufficient for whole-region simulation seeding"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First whole-organism brain emulation closes perception-action loop",
      "notes": "HIT — fruit fly is anchor; mouse/human are next. Eon Systems publicly targeted mouse next.",
      "source": "Eon Systems / Rath Bioat Clan March 2026 — full Drosophila brain (127,400 neurons, 50M synapses) closed perception-action loop in MuJoCo simulation",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.rathbiotaclan.com/whole-brain-emulation-achieved-scientists-run-a-fruit-fly-brain-in-simulation/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-07",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-07",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Connectome-derived emulation of full nervous system in any organism (insect-class or larger) successfully embedded in simulated body and produces naturalistic behavior"
    },
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
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    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
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      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight":
... (truncated)