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238_052predictionMarkets/StocksAGI

$100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk)

Predictor: Elon Musk · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
41.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2029-01-01 – 2031-09-30
Edges in / out
7 / 5
Tickers exposed
21

Prediction text

$100 trillion companies within 5 years (3 years from now, per Diamandis interpretation of Musk) | we heard Elon say we're going to have hundred trillion dollar companies. And I can imagine that within five within five years. So three years from now. Yeah. I don't think it's gonna be unreasonable.

Watch events: Top market cap milestones: $10T single stock; $20T; $50T

Verbatim quote

From episode "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238"
we heard Elon say we're going to have hundred trillion dollar companies. And I can imagine that within five within five years. So three years from now. Yeah. I don't think it's gonna be unreasonable.

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

Same.

Predictor: Elon Musk

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0142
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Elon Musk is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: agi_breakthrough_5y

Linked via embedding similarity 0.572

Major capability discontinuity (e.g. AGI by named target year, 5-year horizon)

Base rate
20.0%
1/5 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 41.7% → blend 41.7% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

6 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 41.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 4 pending
  1. 2026-01-01 → 2026-11-30pendingTesla shareholder approval of $1T Musk pay package activates trillion-dollar Optimus tranches
    How: Tesla 8-K confirms shareholder approval of the Musk 12-tranche compensation package implying market cap of at least $8.5T to fully vest — proxy vote outcome filed with SEC
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 70%
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFirst $5T market-cap company (Nvidia, Apple, MSFT, or Saudi Aramco) confirmed
    How: Any single publicly-traded company hits $5T market cap based on shares outstanding times closing price for at least 5 consecutive trading days — verifiable via Bloomberg, Refinitiv, or NYSE/NASDAQ daily close
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 65%
  3. 2027-06-01 → 2030-06-30pendingFirst $10T market-cap company achieved
    How: Any single publicly-traded company reaches $10T market cap for at least 5 consecutive trading days — verifiable via market cap data providers
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 40%
  4. 2030-09-15pendingFirst $100T company achieved (event resolves the prediction)
    How: Any publicly-traded company achieves $100T market cap based on shares outstanding times closing price for at least 5 consecutive trading days — primary measurement of prediction
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 5%
  5. 2030-01-01 → 2035-12-31pendingFirst $25-30T company (Musk's Tesla endgame valuation)
    How: Any single publicly-traded company reaches $25-30T market cap — Musk's stated Tesla endgame premised on Optimus + autonomy
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 15%
  6. 2030-01-01 → 2035-12-31pendingGlobal GDP exceeds $200T nominal (denominator necessary for $100T company plausibility)
    How: World Bank or IMF reports global nominal GDP exceeding $200T in their World Economic Outlook database — for context, 2024 global GDP was ~$110T
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 40%
  7. 2036-08-14pendingPeople will be on Mars within 10 years
  8. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 42%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z41.7%+1.6pp
Network propagation: 40.1% → 41.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z40.1%+3.8pp
Network propagation: 36.3% → 40.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z36.3%+7.6pp
Network propagation: 28.7% → 36.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z28.7%-7.9pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.287 w_in=0.30 agi_breakthrough_5y
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z36.6%+7.9pp
Network propagation: 28.7% → 36.6%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z28.7%-26.3pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.287 w_in=0.30 agi_breakthrough_5y

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqCMQ_001
By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions Sam Altman
44.8%0.5500.050-0.112
prereq248_040
Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.Alex Wissner-Gross
53.0%0.5500.050-0.106
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.083
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.550+0.058
prereq238_009
Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longAlex Wissner-Gross
78.1%0.5500.050+0.019

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq239_009
People will be on Mars within 10 yearsElon Musk
30.9%0.5500.050-0.050
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.049
prereq232_047
Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep Elon Musk
30.0%0.5500.050-0.040
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.028
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.027

Ticker exposure

21 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (14)

SOUNNVDAGTLBAIBBAITCEHYAMZNBABAGOOGLIBMMETAMSFTORCLSHOP

Adverse (7)

ACNCTSHFRSHCHGGIBMINFYPEGA

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq248_040Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.AI
prereq238_009Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)AI
prereq235_038David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_014Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.AI
prereqCMQ_001By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks.AI
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace
prereq239_009People will be on Mars within 10 yearsSpace
prereq232_047Mass drivers on the moon will shoot AI satellites into deep space; self-sustaining lunar city will follow.Space

Linked documents (8)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.765manifoldWill Elon Musk become a trillionaire before July 2026?40%mentionspending2026-05-18
0.670manifoldHow high will Elons Musk Net Worth get before July 2026?mentionspending2026-06-04
0.670manifold30T market cap company before 2030?26%mentionspending2026-05-26
0.651manifoldHow many companies with a $5T+ market cap at end of 2026?mentionspending2026-05-16
0.627gdeltmentionspending2026-04-30
0.623manifoldWhat Happens First: James Bond actor officially announced or Elon Musk a trillionaire?mentionspending2026-06-01
0.590gdeltmentionspending2026-04-30
0.584manifoldWill MrBeast become a billionaire before age 35?97%mentionspending2026-05-18

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$100 trillion",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "CITED_PREDICTION",
  "role": "Cited-Executive",
  "context": "we heard Elon say we're going to have hundred trillion dollar companies. And I can imagine that within five within five years. Yeah. So that Yeah. So three years from now. Yeah. I don't think it's gonna be unreasonable.",
  "to_year": 2031,
  "cited_by": "Peter Diamandis",
  "verbatim": "we heard Elon say we're going to have hundred trillion dollar companies. And I can imagine that within five within five years. So three years from now. Yeah. I don't think it's gonna be unreasonable.",
  "conv_cues": "not unreasonable",
  "direction": "NUMERIC_TARGET",
  "from_year": 2029,
  "timeframe": "5 years (by 2031) / Peter: 3 years (2029)",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "David Sinclair begins partial epigenetic reprogramming trials with Life Biosciences in March 2026.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "235_038",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Pausing AI will fail and only accelerate race dynamics.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "248_040",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already here, not 12 months away.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "232_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tesla shareholder approval of $1T Musk pay package activates trillion-dollar Optimus tranches",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2026-06-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-11-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Tesla 8-K confirms shareholder approval of the Musk 12-tranche compensation package implying market cap of at least $8.5T to fully vest — proxy vote outcome filed with SEC"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "By 2026, AI will reach 'intern-level' capability — millions of virtual interns performing supervised, economically useful tasks.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "CMQ_001",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-26",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First $5T market-cap company (Nvidia, Apple, MSFT, or Saudi Aramco) confirmed",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "expected_date": "2027-09-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Any single publicly-traded company hits $5T market cap based on shares outstanding times closing price for at least 5 consecutive trading days — verifiable via Bloomberg, Refinitiv, or NYSE/NASDAQ daily close"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First $10T market-cap company achieved",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": nu
... (truncated)