The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields.

The solution wavefront will spread from math/coding to physics, chemistry, and other fields. | This is the beginning of the wavefront. This is the infection the contagion spreading from coding and math to physics and chemistry.

This is the beginning of the wavefront. This is the infection the contagion spreading from coding and math to physics and chemistry.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "This is the model that achieves gold level performance at the physics olympiad, the math olympiad, the chemistry olympiad...This is the beginning of the wavefront. This is the infection the contagion spreading from coding and math to physics and chemistry.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "This is the beginning of the wavefront. This is the infection the contagion spreading from coding and math to physics and chemistry.",
  "conv_cues": "This is the beginning",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "near future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI achieves gold medal-level performance on 2025 IMO",
      "notes": "HIT — Both Google Gemini Deep Think and OpenAI achieved IMO 2025 gold medal performance, independently verified by IMO coordinators.",
      "source": "https://deepmind.google/blog/advanced-version-of-gemini-with-deep-think-officially-achieves-gold-medal-standard-at-the-international-mathematical-olympiad/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://deepmind.google/blog/advanced-version-of-gemini-with-deep-think-officially-achieves-gold-medal-standard-at-the-international-mathematical-olympiad/",
      "expected_date": "2025-07-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-07-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Frontier LLM (Google Gemini Deep Think and/or OpenAI experimental model) scores >=35/42 (gold cutoff) on official 2025 International Mathematical Olympiad problems with verified evaluation"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI receives gold-medal ratings on physics and chemistry olympiad written exams",
      "notes": "Reported by IntuitionLabs that Gemini Deep Think also received gold medal ratings on physics and chemistry olympiad written exams in 2025.",
      "source": "https://intuitionlabs.ai/articles/ai-reasoning-math-olympiad-imo",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://intuitionlabs.ai/articles/ai-reasoning-math-olympiad-imo",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Frontier model (Gemini Deep Think) achieves gold-medal-level ratings on International Physics Olympiad (IPhO) and International Chemistry Olympiad (IChO) written exams with public verification"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "ob
... (truncated)