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241_039predictionAIAI-timing

In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
46.3%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-01-01 – 2027-11-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead | In a year, we'll know better the answer to your question

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"
In a year, we'll know better the answer to your question

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 46.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 2 pending
  1. 2026-02-05hitAnthropic Claude Opus 4.6 tops agentic-coding / tool-use benchmarks
    How: Anthropic blog announces Opus 4.6 with #1 ranking on SWE-bench Verified, OSWorld, or agentic tool-use benchmark; verified by independent evals
    Source: https://www.anthropic.com/news/introducing-anthropic-labsconf 95%
  2. 2026-02-15hitAnthropic 2026 Agentic Coding Trends Report published as industry benchmark
    How: Anthropic publishes 2026 Agentic Coding Trends Report; cited by NYU RITS / Medium analyses as definitive industry data
    Source: https://resources.anthropic.com/hubfs/2026%20Agentic%20Coding%20Trends%20Report.pdfconf 90%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2026-09-30pendingFrontier-lab summer 2026 model releases (OpenAI GPT-next, Google Gemini-3, xAI Grok-5)
    How: At least 2 of OpenAI, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta release a flagship frontier-class model with new capabilities benchmark; covered in mainstream tech press
    Source: https://www.the-ai-corner.com/p/everything-claude-shipped-2026-complete-guideconf 85%
  4. 2027-01-01 → 2027-06-30pendingLab revenue rankings stabilize: top 3 by ARR for 2 consecutive quarters
    How: The Information / Bloomberg / TechCrunch report ARR figures for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google AI, xAI, Meta AI for Q4-2026 and Q1-2027; same top-3 ordering both quarters
    Source: https://medium.com/ai-software-engineer/anthropic-launches-claude-managed-agents-that-make-agentic-ai-workflows-real-91134b6f2b56conf 55%
  5. 2027-04-01 → 2027-11-30pendingIndependent agent-benchmark consensus on top lab (avg of 5 benchmarks)
    How: Composite of >=5 reputable benchmarks (SWE-bench, OSWorld, GAIA, MMLU-Pro, MMMU, ARC-AGI) shows the same lab #1 across all five; widely reported in tech press
    Source: https://rits.shanghai.nyu.edu/ai/anthropics-2026-agentic-coding-trends-report-from-assistants-to-agent-teamsconf 40%
  6. 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingCascade: enterprise AI procurement consolidates around <=2 frontier vendors
    How: Gartner / IDC / Forrester report cites <=2 vendors holding >=70% of Fortune-1000 AI-platform spend, signaling lab winners
    Source: https://tech-insider.org/anthropic-claude-computer-use-agent-2026/conf 45%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 46%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z46.3%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 47.4% → 46.3%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z47.4%-1.7pp
Network propagation: 49.1% → 47.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z49.1%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 49.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.5500.050-0.081
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.5500.050-0.049
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.5500.050-0.044
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5500.050-0.042
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.037

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050-0.036
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050-0.035
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.024
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.009
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.009

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI

Linked documents (2)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.673manifoldWill I get an AI lab offer?29%mentionspending2026-05-02
0.551arxivImproving Answer Extraction in Context-based Question Answering Systems Using LLMsmentionspending2026-06-04

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "In a year, we'll know better",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "In a year, we'll know better the answer to your question",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "by 2027-03",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic Claude Opus 4.6 tops agentic-coding / tool-use benchmarks",
      "source": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/introducing-anthropic-labs",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-05",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-05",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic blog announces Opus 4.6 with #1 ranking on SWE-bench Verified, OSWorld, or agentic tool-use benchmark; verified by independent evals"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic 2026 Agentic Coding Trends Report published as industry benchmark",
      "source": "https://resources.anthropic.com/hubfs/2026%20Agentic%20Coding%20Trends%20Report.pdf",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic publishes 2026 Agentic Coding Trends Report; cited by NYU RITS / Medium analyses as definitive industry data"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier-lab summer 2026 model releases (OpenAI GPT-next, Google Gemini-3, xAI Grok-5)",
      "source": "https://www.the-ai-corner.com/p/everything-claude-shipped-2026-complete-guide",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "At least 2 of OpenAI, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta release a flagship frontier-class model with new capabilities benchmark; covered in mainstream tech press"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Lab revenue rankings stabilize: top 3 by ARR for 2 consecutive
... (truncated)