In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead
Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source
Prediction text
In a year we'll know better which AI labs pull ahead | In a year, we'll know better the answer to your question
Verbatim quote
In a year, we'll know better the answer to your question
Predictor: Eric Schmidt
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-02-05hitAnthropic Claude Opus 4.6 tops agentic-coding / tool-use benchmarksHow: Anthropic blog announces Opus 4.6 with #1 ranking on SWE-bench Verified, OSWorld, or agentic tool-use benchmark; verified by independent evalsSource: https://www.anthropic.com/news/introducing-anthropic-labsconf 95%
- 2026-02-15hitAnthropic 2026 Agentic Coding Trends Report published as industry benchmarkHow: Anthropic publishes 2026 Agentic Coding Trends Report; cited by NYU RITS / Medium analyses as definitive industry dataSource: https://resources.anthropic.com/hubfs/2026%20Agentic%20Coding%20Trends%20Report.pdfconf 90%
- 2026-06-01 → 2026-09-30pendingFrontier-lab summer 2026 model releases (OpenAI GPT-next, Google Gemini-3, xAI Grok-5)How: At least 2 of OpenAI, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta release a flagship frontier-class model with new capabilities benchmark; covered in mainstream tech pressSource: https://www.the-ai-corner.com/p/everything-claude-shipped-2026-complete-guideconf 85%
- 2027-01-01 → 2027-06-30pendingLab revenue rankings stabilize: top 3 by ARR for 2 consecutive quartersHow: The Information / Bloomberg / TechCrunch report ARR figures for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google AI, xAI, Meta AI for Q4-2026 and Q1-2027; same top-3 ordering both quartersSource: https://medium.com/ai-software-engineer/anthropic-launches-claude-managed-agents-that-make-agentic-ai-workflows-real-91134b6f2b56conf 55%
- 2027-04-01 → 2027-11-30pendingIndependent agent-benchmark consensus on top lab (avg of 5 benchmarks)How: Composite of >=5 reputable benchmarks (SWE-bench, OSWorld, GAIA, MMLU-Pro, MMMU, ARC-AGI) shows the same lab #1 across all five; widely reported in tech pressSource: https://rits.shanghai.nyu.edu/ai/anthropics-2026-agentic-coding-trends-report-from-assistants-to-agent-teamsconf 40%
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingCascade: enterprise AI procurement consolidates around <=2 frontier vendorsHow: Gartner / IDC / Forrester report cites <=2 vendors holding >=70% of Fortune-1000 AI-platform spend, signaling lab winnersSource: https://tech-insider.org/anthropic-claude-computer-use-agent-2026/conf 45%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.081 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.049 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.044 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.042 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.037 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.036 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.035 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.024 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.009 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.009 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
Linked documents (2)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.673 | manifold | Will I get an AI lab offer? | 29% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-02 |
| 0.551 | arxiv | Improving Answer Extraction in Context-based Question Answering Systems Using LLMs | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-04 |
Raw metadata
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"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "In a year, we'll know better",
"to_year": 2027,
"verbatim": "In a year, we'll know better the answer to your question",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2027,
"timeframe": "by 2027-03",
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"label": "Frontier-lab summer 2026 model releases (OpenAI GPT-next, Google Gemini-3, xAI Grok-5)",
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... (truncated)