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238_049predictionAuto/TransportAI-timing

Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028

Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source

Prior probability
65.0%
Current probability
54.6%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-01-01 – 2028-11-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 | there's Archer Aviation. Uh the two major players in EVOLs in the United States are Joby and Archer. There are other ones as well, but uh Archer plans to become operational by 2028 here. Move people around different parts of Los Angeles

Verbatim quote

From episode "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238"
there's Archer Aviation. Uh the two major players in EVOLs in the United States are Joby and Archer. There are other ones as well, but uh Archer plans to become operational by 2028 here. Move people around different parts of Los Angeles

Predictor: Peter Diamandis

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.875
Brier
0.0367
excellent
Hits / Misses
10 / 0
of 15 resolved
Hit rate
66.7%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 65%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 54.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2024-06-26hitArcher announced as Official Air Taxi Provider of LA28 Olympic and Paralympic Games
    How: LA28 / Archer joint press release naming Archer the exclusive air taxi provider for 2028 Games
    Source: LA28 press release / CompositesWorldconf 99%
    Notes: HIT - direct partnership confirmed; provides hard 2028 deadline anchor.
  2. 2026-02-15hitFAA accepts Archer Midnight eVTOL certification basis
    How: FAA formally accepts certification basis for Archer Midnight powered-lift category
    Source: Simply Wall St - FAA acceptance of Archer Midnight eVTOL certification basisconf 95%
    Notes: HIT - FAA acceptance of cert basis is a major regulatory unlock.
  3. 2026-02-01 → 2026-12-31pendingArcher enters FAA Type Inspection Authorization TIA phase with Midnight
    How: Archer COO publicly confirms TIA process initiation with FAA test pilots flying for credit
    Source: Simply Wall St / Archer investor communicationsconf 85%
  4. 2026-12-01 → 2027-12-31pendingArcher Midnight receives FAA Type Certification
    How: FAA issues Type Certificate for Midnight powered-lift aircraft unlocking commercial operations
    Source: FAA press release / Archer 8-K filingsconf 55%
    Notes: Critical gating event - without Type Cert 2028 LA service is impossible.
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2028-07-31pendingFirst commercial Archer eVTOL passenger flights in Los Angeles metro area
    How: Archer operates first revenue passenger flight in LA basin under FAA Part 135 air carrier certificate
    Source: Archer / United Airlines press releases / FAA flight dataconf 45%
    Notes: Cascade - direct event resolution. LA Olympics start mid-July 2028 requires service launch ahead of time.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 55%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z54.6%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 56.0% → 54.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z56.0%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 58.1% → 56.0%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z58.1%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 60.9% → 58.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z60.9%-4.1pp
Network propagation: 65.0% → 60.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.6500.050-0.097
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6500.050-0.059
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.6500.050-0.054
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6500.050-0.050
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.650+0.044

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050+0.033
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050+0.031
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050+0.016
prereq247_035
Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by enDario Amodei
38.8%0.7000.050+0.011
prereq246_017
Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50Peter Diamandis
37.7%0.6500.050-0.005

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq247_035Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeBiotech/Longevity
prereq246_017Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Space
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2028-12-31[Autonomous 2028-12] ng; EVgo/Electra partnership milestones [238_049] Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028pending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.585edgar_8kBristow Group Inc. (VTOL) (CIK 0001525221)mentionspending2026-05-05
0.585edgar_8kBristow Group Inc. (VTOL) (CIK 0001525221)mentionspending2026-06-03
0.553manifoldWhere will Jet Lag The Game Season 19 take placementionspending2026-05-06
0.552polymarketColorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels41%mentionspending2026-05-27
0.549polymarketLos Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.551%mentionspending2026-05-11
0.548polymarketColorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels36%mentionspending2026-05-26
0.546polymarketLos Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians40%mentionspending2026-05-05
0.546polymarketLos Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians45%mentionspending2026-05-06
0.545polymarketLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels56%mentionspending2026-05-10
0.545polymarketChicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels1%mentionspending2026-04-30

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "one of the things I'm proud about and excited about here in LA is that the LA Olympics are coming up and uh there's Archer Aviation. Uh the two major players in EVOLs in the United States are Joby and Archer. There are other ones as well, but uh Archer plans to become operational by 2028 here.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "there's Archer Aviation. Uh the two major players in EVOLs in the United States are Joby and Archer. There are other ones as well, but uh Archer plans to become operational by 2028 here. Move people around different parts of Los Angeles",
  "conv_cues": "plans to become operational",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "2028",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Archer announced as Official Air Taxi Provider of LA28 Olympic and Paralympic Games",
      "notes": "HIT - direct partnership confirmed; provides hard 2028 deadline anchor.",
      "source": "LA28 press release / CompositesWorld",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://la28.org/en/newsroom/archer-selected-as-official-air-taxi-provider-of-la28-games.html",
      "expected_date": "2024-06-30",
      "observed_date": "2024-06-26",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "LA28 / Archer joint press release naming Archer the exclusive air taxi provider for 2028 Games"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "FAA accepts Archer Midnight eVTOL certification basis",
      "notes": "HIT - FAA acceptance of cert basis is a major regulatory unlock.",
      "source": "Simply Wall St - FAA acceptance of Archer Midnight eVTOL certification basis",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-achr/archer-aviation/news/should-faa-acceptance-of-archers-midnight-evtol-certificatio",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-04-30",
        "from": "2025-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "FAA formally accepts certification basis for Archer Midnight powered-lift category"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expe
... (truncated)