Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028
Predictor: Peter Diamandis · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source
Prediction text
Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 | there's Archer Aviation. Uh the two major players in EVOLs in the United States are Joby and Archer. There are other ones as well, but uh Archer plans to become operational by 2028 here. Move people around different parts of Los Angeles
Verbatim quote
there's Archer Aviation. Uh the two major players in EVOLs in the United States are Joby and Archer. There are other ones as well, but uh Archer plans to become operational by 2028 here. Move people around different parts of Los Angeles
Predictor: Peter Diamandis
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Peter Diamandis is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2024-06-26hitArcher announced as Official Air Taxi Provider of LA28 Olympic and Paralympic GamesHow: LA28 / Archer joint press release naming Archer the exclusive air taxi provider for 2028 GamesSource: LA28 press release / CompositesWorldconf 99%Notes: HIT - direct partnership confirmed; provides hard 2028 deadline anchor.
- 2026-02-15hitFAA accepts Archer Midnight eVTOL certification basisHow: FAA formally accepts certification basis for Archer Midnight powered-lift categorySource: Simply Wall St - FAA acceptance of Archer Midnight eVTOL certification basisconf 95%Notes: HIT - FAA acceptance of cert basis is a major regulatory unlock.
- 2026-02-01 → 2026-12-31pendingArcher enters FAA Type Inspection Authorization TIA phase with MidnightHow: Archer COO publicly confirms TIA process initiation with FAA test pilots flying for creditSource: Simply Wall St / Archer investor communicationsconf 85%
- 2026-12-01 → 2027-12-31pendingArcher Midnight receives FAA Type CertificationHow: FAA issues Type Certificate for Midnight powered-lift aircraft unlocking commercial operationsSource: FAA press release / Archer 8-K filingsconf 55%Notes: Critical gating event - without Type Cert 2028 LA service is impossible.
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-07-31pendingFirst commercial Archer eVTOL passenger flights in Los Angeles metro areaHow: Archer operates first revenue passenger flight in LA basin under FAA Part 135 air carrier certificateSource: Archer / United Airlines press releases / FAA flight dataconf 45%Notes: Cascade - direct event resolution. LA Olympics start mid-July 2028 requires service launch ahead of time.
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.097 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.059 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.054 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.650 | +0.044 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | +0.033 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.031 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.016 |
| prereq | 247_035 Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by en — Dario Amodei | 38.8% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.011 |
| prereq | 246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 — Peter Diamandis | 37.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.005 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2028-12-31 | [Autonomous 2028-12] ng; EVgo/Electra partnership milestones [238_049] Archer Aviation plans to become operational in LA by 2028 | pending |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.585 | edgar_8k | Bristow Group Inc. (VTOL) (CIK 0001525221) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.585 | edgar_8k | Bristow Group Inc. (VTOL) (CIK 0001525221) | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
| 0.553 | manifold | Where will Jet Lag The Game Season 19 take place | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
| 0.552 | polymarket | Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels | 41% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-27 |
| 0.549 | polymarket | Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 | 51% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-11 |
| 0.548 | polymarket | Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels | 36% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-26 |
| 0.546 | polymarket | Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians | 40% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.546 | polymarket | Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians | 45% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-06 |
| 0.545 | polymarket | Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels | 56% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-10 |
| 0.545 | polymarket | Chicago White Sox vs. Los Angeles Angels | 1% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Host",
"context": "one of the things I'm proud about and excited about here in LA is that the LA Olympics are coming up and uh there's Archer Aviation. Uh the two major players in EVOLs in the United States are Joby and Archer. There are other ones as well, but uh Archer plans to become operational by 2028 here.",
"to_year": 2028,
"verbatim": "there's Archer Aviation. Uh the two major players in EVOLs in the United States are Joby and Archer. There are other ones as well, but uh Archer plans to become operational by 2028 here. Move people around different parts of Los Angeles",
"conv_cues": "plans to become operational",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2028,
"timeframe": "2028",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Archer announced as Official Air Taxi Provider of LA28 Olympic and Paralympic Games",
"notes": "HIT - direct partnership confirmed; provides hard 2028 deadline anchor.",
"source": "LA28 press release / CompositesWorld",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://la28.org/en/newsroom/archer-selected-as-official-air-taxi-provider-of-la28-games.html",
"expected_date": "2024-06-30",
"observed_date": "2024-06-26",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "LA28 / Archer joint press release naming Archer the exclusive air taxi provider for 2028 Games"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "FAA accepts Archer Midnight eVTOL certification basis",
"notes": "HIT - FAA acceptance of cert basis is a major regulatory unlock.",
"source": "Simply Wall St - FAA acceptance of Archer Midnight eVTOL certification basis",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-achr/archer-aviation/news/should-faa-acceptance-of-archers-midnight-evtol-certificatio",
"expected_date": "2025-12-30",
"observed_date": "2026-02-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-04-30",
"from": "2025-09-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "FAA formally accepts certification basis for Archer Midnight powered-lift category"
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"expe
... (truncated)