Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms.

Real-time AI video generation will break any video/voice-based security mechanisms. | that's going to be real time, right? Like, so then yes, just the any kind of security mechanic that you have where you recognize the person via video or or voice is shot to hell.

that's going to be real time, right? Like, so then yes, just the any kind of security mechanic that you have where you recognize the person via video or or voice is shot to hell.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-VC",
  "context": "Well, and also that's going to be real time, right? Like, so then yes, just the any kind of security mechanic that you have where you recognize the person via video or or voice is shot to hell.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "that's going to be real time, right? Like, so then yes, just the any kind of security mechanic that you have where you recognize the person via video or or voice is shot to hell.",
  "conv_cues": "shot to hell",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "unspecified near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Voice deepfake attack volume rises >500% YoY",
      "notes": "HIT — Voice deepfake incidents rose 680% YoY in 2025 with >100K US attacks recorded.",
      "source": "https://www.progressiverobot.com/2026/04/29/deepfake-phishing-ai-defenses/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.progressiverobot.com/2026/04/29/deepfake-phishing-ai-defenses/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Industry security report (CloudSEK, Reality Defender, or similar) documents >=500% YoY increase in voice deepfake attack incidents"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Voice-cloning attacks succeed with as little as 30 seconds of source audio",
      "notes": "HIT — HawkEye and BleepingComputer document 30-second voice clone attacks bypassing speaker verification systems in 2026.",
      "source": "https://hawk-eye.io/2026/03/deepfake-driven-social-engineering-how-ai-voice-and-video-are-being-used-to-bypass-security-controls/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://hawk-eye.io/2026/03/deepfake-driven-social-engineering-how-ai-voice-and-video-are-being-used-to-bypass-security-controls/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public security report documents real-time voice cloning bypassing voice authentication using <60 seconds of input audio in production attacks"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "obs
... (truncated)