AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes.

AI discoveries of past errors will topple some Nobel prizes. | it topples some Nobel prizes.

it topples some Nobel prizes.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

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  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "I wonder if AI is going to be, you know, aimed at looking at all the scientific literature over the last 100 years and show us where all the mistakes were. I'd count on it. And I think it topples some Nobel prizes.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "it topples some Nobel prizes.",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
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      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
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      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
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      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
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      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Major journal (Nature/Science/Cell/NEJM) issues retraction of Nobel-laureate paper attributed to AI-detected error",
      "notes": "Detection mechanism attribution is the key — error must be flagged BY AI, not just retracted while AI exists.",
      "source": "Retraction Watch — Semenza (2019 Nobel) has 17 retractions/concerns; Sudhof (2013) two retractions since 2024; pattern accelerating",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://retractionwatch.com/retractions-by-nobel-prize-winners/",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2028-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Public retraction notice in Nature, Science, Cell, NEJM, or PNAS for paper authored by Nobel laureate, with retraction notice or PubPeer thread citing AI-assisted image/data analysis as proximate detection mechanism"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Gregg Semenza (2019 Physiology) prize-cited paper retracted or formally challenged",
      "notes": "Semenza is highest-probability single laureate to have prize-cited work challenged.",
      "source": "Semenza tally at 17 retractions/concerns 2026; trajectory points at prize-cited work next",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
      "source_url": "https://retractionwatch.com/2023/10/02/nobel-prize-winner-gregg-semenza-tallies-tenth-retraction/",
      "expected_date": "2027-06-16",
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        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "One or more papers cited in Semenza's offi
... (truncated)