Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch.

Relativity Space still probably a year or two away from launch. | Relativity Space that Eric Schmidt purchased um still is probably a year or two away from launch

Relativity Space that Eric Schmidt purchased um still is probably a year or two away from launch

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Relativity Space that Eric Schmidt purchased um still is probably a year or two away from launch and everything else is way too small. So, we're a launch constraint um at least for other suppliers.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "Relativity Space that Eric Schmidt purchased um still is probably a year or two away from launch",
  "conv_cues": "probably",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "1-2 years",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
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    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Relativity confirms 2H 2026 Terran R debut focus (delays NSSL bid)",
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      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://spacenews.com/relativity-space-delays-nssl-bid-focuses-on-2026-terran-r-debut/",
      "expected_date": "2025-06-19",
      "observed_date": "2025-06-19",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "SpaceNews June 19 2025 reports Relativity delays NSSL bid to focus on H2 2026 Terran R debut — public commitment to in-window launch"
    },
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      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Relativity Space accelerates Terran R production — thrust section completed; testing on track for late-2026 debut",
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      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2025/10/relativity-update-oct25/",
      "expected_date": "2025-10-01",
      "observed_date": "2025-10-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NASASpaceflight October 2025 update confirms Terran R thrust-section completion + accelerating production milestones"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
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      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
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    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
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      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
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      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
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      "source_id": "235_002",
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      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
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      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Terran R static-fire / WDR test campaign at LC-16 Cape Canaveral",
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      "ordinal": -3,
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      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://www.relativityspace.com/terran-r",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-15",
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      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
... (truncated)