Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030)

Virtual cell simulation by end of decade (2030) | I agree. Virtual cell by the end of the decade.

I agree. Virtual cell by the end of the decade.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Virtual cell by the end of the decade. A good one.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "I agree. Virtual cell by the end of the decade.",
  "conv_cues": "I agree",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2030,
  "timeframe": "By end of decade (2030)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Arc Institute Virtual Cell Challenge 2026 results show >2x improvement over State baseline",
      "source": "https://arcinstitute.org/news/evo-2-one-year-later",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.genengnews.com/topics/artificial-intelligence/arc-institute-launches-virtual-cell-challenge-to-accelerate-ai-model-development/",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-03-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Annual Arc Virtual Cell Challenge 2026 reports winning model's accuracy on perturbation prediction task >=2x the 2025 baseline (State trained on 170M cells)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "CZI rBio / TranscriptFormer next-gen model published with whole-cell perturbation prediction",
      "source": "https://chanzuckerberg.com/blog/rbio-reasoning-ai-model/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "CZI publishes follow-on model trained across all major cell types making accurate predictions of phenotype change from gene perturbation across multiple cell lines"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Nvidia or major cloud announces dedicated virtual-cell training compute partnership",
      "source": "https://arcinstitute.org/news/evo-2-one-year-later",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Public announcement: Nvidia (Evo 2 collaborator), Google DeepMind (AlphaFold cell-bio extension), or major cloud provider commits >$500M compute to virtual-cell foundation models"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
... (truncated)