Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years

Civilizational left turns will hit us in the next 1-2 years | there are so many civil civilizational left turns that are going to hit us in the next year or two.

there are so many civil civilizational left turns that are going to hit us in the next year or two.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "1-2 years",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmtvGKuRE64",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Alex my two cents on just on this topic I I would predict there are so many civil civilizational left turns that are going to hit us in the next year or two.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "there are so many civil civilizational left turns that are going to hit us in the next year or two.",
  "conv_cues": "going to hit us",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "2027-2028",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Stimson/Time Top-10 Global Risks for 2026 confirms multiple civilizational disruption vectors",
      "source": "https://www.stimson.org/2026/top-ten-global-risks-for-2026/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.stimson.org/2026/top-ten-global-risks-for-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Stimson Center, Time, or equivalent risk-forecasting outlet publishes 2026 risk list including >=5 vectors framed as civilizational/structural"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "PRC Taiwan-readiness deadline reaffirmed for 2027",
      "source": "https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/east-asia-semiconductors-will-decide-the-next-us-china-arms-race/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/east-asia-semiconductors-will-decide-the-next-us-china-arms-race/",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "US DoD or IC publicly reaffirms PRC military Taiwan-readiness target of 2027 in major report (annual China Military Power, NIE, etc.)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI-enabled disinformation campaign against Taiwan election documented at state-actor scale",
      "source": "https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/eight-ways-ai-will-shape-geopolitics-in-2026/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "or
... (truncated)