Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now).

Next year frontier reasoning costs will be pennies (down from ~$7 now). | Yeah, but guess what? When it's pennies next year

Yeah, but guess what? When it's pennies next year

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "pennies",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "When a frontier reasoning costs seven bucks instead of 3,000, think of the implication for startups that gain institutional powers. Yeah, but guess what? When it's pennies next year, well, it will be, but cost curves are now going to start collapsing industries before the technology does",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "Yeah, but guess what? When it's pennies next year",
  "conv_cues": "guess what; it will be",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "next year (2027)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "DeepSeek-class open or low-cost frontier reasoning at sub-$2 per million tokens",
      "notes": "DeepSeek V4 already at $0.14/$1.74 per 1M tokens. Frontier-grade reasoning is cheap — Diamandis 'pennies' claim partially HIT for non-flagship tier.",
      "source": "https://aithority.com/machine-learning/from-gpt-5-5-to-deepseek-v4-how-developers-are-building-smarter-ai-agents-with-multi-model-routing-in-2026/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://aithority.com/machine-learning/from-gpt-5-5-to-deepseek-v4-how-developers-are-building-smarter-ai-agents-with-multi-model-routing-in-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-11-14",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Open-weights or low-cost frontier reasoning model (DeepSeek V4, Qwen, Llama-class) achieves frontier-tier benchmark scores at <=$2 per 1M output tokens"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier reasoning model API price drops below $5 per million output tokens",
      "notes": "Claude Haiku 4.5 already at $5/M output (April 2026). Frontier reasoning at this price still pending.",
      "source": "https://benchlm.ai/llm-pricing",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://benchlm.ai/llm-pricing",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
 
... (truncated)