AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century.

AI will analyze scientific literature and shock humanity by revealing wrong turns made over the past century. | I think AI will will shock humanity to its core in terms of the mistakes that it discovers that we've made over the past century.

I think AI will will shock humanity to its core in terms of the mistakes that it discovers that we've made over the past century.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "I can only imagine the left turns that human civilization has taken in the past, call it 80 years, when it should have taken a right turn instead. And we're going to discover that after the fact...I think AI will will shock humanity to its core in terms of the mistakes that it discovers that we've made over the past century.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "I think AI will will shock humanity to its core in terms of the mistakes that it discovers that we've made over the past century.",
  "conv_cues": "I think; will shock",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Open-source AI literature-review tool beats major LLMs on citation accuracy",
      "source": "Nature: Open-source AI tool beats giant LLMs in literature reviews and gets citations right",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-00347-9",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed Nature paper documents AI tool exceeding major LLMs at scientific literature review and matching human citation accuracy"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Autonomous AI agent publishes peer-reviewed scientific discovery",
      "source": "OpenReview: Scientific Discoveries by LLM Agents; Google Research blog",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://openreview.net/forum?id=fxL6eFPsd1",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "AI agent (e.g., Sakana AI Scientist, FutureHouse, Microsoft AI Co-Scientist) credited as primary discoverer in peer-reviewed Nature/Science/Cell paper"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI literature meta-analysis identifies replication crisis in major sub-field",
      "source": "Educational Researcher / Royal Society replica
... (truncated)