We are only 10-15% into the impacts of AI

We are only 10-15% into the impacts of AI | We're 10 or 15% into the impacts of this. And you can see it. You can feel it. And some of it will happen, some of it will take longer

We're 10 or 15% into the impacts of this. And you can see it. You can feel it. And some of it will happen, some of it will take longer

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "10-15% penetration currently; 85-90% of impact still to come",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "hardware takes longer than software",
  "context": "We're 10 or 15% into the impacts of this... some of it will happen, some of it will take longer",
  "to_year": 2035,
  "verbatim": "We're 10 or 15% into the impacts of this. And you can see it. You can feel it. And some of it will happen, some of it will take longer",
  "conv_cues": "you can see it; you can feel it",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "ongoing / next several years",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Enterprise AI in production reaches 72% (up from 55% in 2024)",
      "notes": "HIT — concrete quantification of 'we're 10-15% in' framing. Deployment now ramping rapidly.",
      "source": "Deloitte — The State of AI in the Enterprise — 2026 AI report",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/what-we-do/capabilities/applied-artificial-intelligence/content/state-of-ai-in-the-enterprise.html",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Deloitte 2026 State of AI in Enterprise report (or comparable McKinsey / IDC research) shows 72% of enterprises have at least one AI workload in production, up from 55% in 2024."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "McKinsey 2025: 88% adoption but only 6% see meaningful EBIT impact",
      "notes": "HIT — gap between adoption and impact is direct evidence for Schmidt's prediction. We are early in deployment, not in capability.",
      "source": "Banandre — McKinsey's 2025 AI Report: 88% Adoption, 6% Impact",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.banandre.com/blog/mckinsey-2025-ai-report-widespread-adoption-limited-impact",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "McKinsey 2025 Global Survey on the State of AI confirms that 88% of enterprises use AI but only 6% see meaningful EBIT impact, validating Schmidt's 'we are only 10-15% in' framing."
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First country reports AI-attributable productivity growth >1% sustained",
      "notes": "Direct macro test of moving from 'underhyped' to materializing impact, beyond enterpri
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