Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device.
Predictor: Joe Liemandt · ep#233 "This $40M AI Company Is Using AI Tutors to Teach 2 Hours/Day | #233" · source
Prediction text
Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device. | 10 grand a kid is a lot of token usage, though. That'll come down a factor of 10. But it's impressive that you're >> we're going to get it down to on device.
Verbatim quote
10 grand a kid is a lot of token usage, though. That'll come down a factor of 10. But it's impressive that you're >> we're going to get it down to on device.
Predictor: Joe Liemandt
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Joe Liemandt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-03-31hitInference cost per million tokens drops 50x for GPT-4-class capability (2022-2026)How: GPT-4-equivalent capability cost falls from $20/1M tokens (2022) to $0.40/1M tokens (2026) per Stanford AI IndexSource: https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/lowest-token-cost-ai-factories/conf 95%Notes: HIT — 50x decline already realized for GPT-4-class. Liemandt's 10x reduction target already exceeded for capability-matched inference.
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFirst credible on-device education-grade LLM (sub-7B params) achieves curriculum-tutor qualityHow: Sub-7B-parameter LLM running on commodity device (Mac, iPhone, Pixel, Snapdragon) demonstrates K-12 tutoring quality matching cloud GPT-4-class baseline on standardized curriculum benchmarksSource: https://www.spheron.network/blog/ai-inference-cost-economics-2026/conf 70%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingLiemandt's Trilogy / Alpha-school style program publishes per-student token cost <$1K/yearHow: Alpha School or comparable AI-tutor-led K-12 program publicly discloses per-student annual AI token cost below $1,000 (10x reduction from $10K baseline)Source: https://www.artefact.com/blog/is-ai-really-getting-cheaper-the-token-cost-illusion/conf 60%Notes: Liemandt is associated with Alpha School / Trilogy AI tutoring; $1K/student is the falsifiable 10x threshold.
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingApple / Google / Qualcomm announces on-device education-grade NPU optimization stackHow: Major OEM (Apple Intelligence, Google Pixel, Qualcomm Snapdragon) ships education-explicit on-device LLM optimized for tutoring / curriculum deliverySource: https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/inference-open-source-models-blackwell-reduce-cost-per-token/conf 55%
- 2027-09-01 → 2028-12-31pendingK-12 AI tutoring deployment crosses 1M-student threshold with on-device-first architectureHow: AI tutoring program (Alpha School, Khan Academy, etc.) crosses 1M active students with majority of inference on-device, not cloud-routedSource: https://oplexa.com/ai-inference-cost-crisis-2026/conf 40%Notes: Cascade — on-device-first scale deployment is the prediction's full-resolution threshold.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.063 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.038 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.034 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.032 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.031 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 — Peter Diamandis | 37.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.103 |
| prereq | 247_035 Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by en — Dario Amodei | 38.8% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.095 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.082 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.081 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.584 | manifold | How much mana will be spent buying tickets for the first $100 draw? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-02 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "10x reduction",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X94eBT-VZnc",
"mode": "FORECAST",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "10 grand a kid is a lot of token usage, though. That'll come down a factor of 10. But it's impressive that you're >> we're going to get it down to on device. But that is our And to be honest, like 3 years ago when we started when I became principal, we literally had humans reviewing the video at night annotating",
"to_year": 2030,
"verbatim": "10 grand a kid is a lot of token usage, though. That'll come down a factor of 10. But it's impressive that you're >> we're going to get it down to on device.",
"conv_cues": "that'll come down; we're going to get it down",
"direction": "DOWN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "future (unspecified)",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Inference cost per million tokens drops 50x for GPT-4-class capability (2022-2026)",
"notes": "HIT — 50x decline already realized for GPT-4-class. Liemandt's 10x reduction target already exceeded for capability-matched inference.",
"source": "https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/lowest-token-cost-ai-factories/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/lowest-token-cost-ai-factories/",
"expected_date": "2026-03-31",
"observed_date": "2026-03-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "GPT-4-equivalent capability cost falls from $20/1M tokens (2022) to $0.40/1M tokens (2026) per Stanford AI Index"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "234_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "235_002",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First credible on-device education-grade LLM (sub-7B params) achieves curriculum-tutor quality",
"source": "https://www.spheron.network/blog/ai-inference-cost-economics-2026/",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": "https://www.spheron.network/blog/ai-inference-cost-economics-2026/",
"expected_date": "2026-12-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-06-30",
"from": "2026-06-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Sub-7B-parameter LLM running on commodity device (Mac, iPhone, Pixel, Snapdragon) demonstrates K-12 tut
... (truncated)