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233_006predictionAIAI-timing

Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device.

Predictor: Joe Liemandt · ep#233 "This $40M AI Company Is Using AI Tutors to Teach 2 Hours/Day | #233" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
37.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Cost of AI tokens per student ($10k/year) will come down by a factor of 10 and move on-device. | 10 grand a kid is a lot of token usage, though. That'll come down a factor of 10. But it's impressive that you're >> we're going to get it down to on device.

Verbatim quote

From episode "This $40M AI Company Is Using AI Tutors to Teach 2 Hours/Day | #233"
10 grand a kid is a lot of token usage, though. That'll come down a factor of 10. But it's impressive that you're >> we're going to get it down to on device.

Predictor: Joe Liemandt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.583
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
1 / 0
of 1 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Joe Liemandt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 37.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 4 pending
  1. 2026-03-31hitInference cost per million tokens drops 50x for GPT-4-class capability (2022-2026)
    How: GPT-4-equivalent capability cost falls from $20/1M tokens (2022) to $0.40/1M tokens (2026) per Stanford AI Index
    Source: https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/lowest-token-cost-ai-factories/conf 95%
    Notes: HIT — 50x decline already realized for GPT-4-class. Liemandt's 10x reduction target already exceeded for capability-matched inference.
  2. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFirst credible on-device education-grade LLM (sub-7B params) achieves curriculum-tutor quality
    How: Sub-7B-parameter LLM running on commodity device (Mac, iPhone, Pixel, Snapdragon) demonstrates K-12 tutoring quality matching cloud GPT-4-class baseline on standardized curriculum benchmarks
    Source: https://www.spheron.network/blog/ai-inference-cost-economics-2026/conf 70%
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingLiemandt's Trilogy / Alpha-school style program publishes per-student token cost <$1K/year
    How: Alpha School or comparable AI-tutor-led K-12 program publicly discloses per-student annual AI token cost below $1,000 (10x reduction from $10K baseline)
    Source: https://www.artefact.com/blog/is-ai-really-getting-cheaper-the-token-cost-illusion/conf 60%
    Notes: Liemandt is associated with Alpha School / Trilogy AI tutoring; $1K/student is the falsifiable 10x threshold.
  4. 2026-09-01 → 2027-12-31pendingApple / Google / Qualcomm announces on-device education-grade NPU optimization stack
    How: Major OEM (Apple Intelligence, Google Pixel, Qualcomm Snapdragon) ships education-explicit on-device LLM optimized for tutoring / curriculum delivery
    Source: https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/inference-open-source-models-blackwell-reduce-cost-per-token/conf 55%
  5. 2027-09-01 → 2028-12-31pendingK-12 AI tutoring deployment crosses 1M-student threshold with on-device-first architecture
    How: AI tutoring program (Alpha School, Khan Academy, etc.) crosses 1M active students with majority of inference on-device, not cloud-routed
    Source: https://oplexa.com/ai-inference-cost-crisis-2026/conf 40%
    Notes: Cascade — on-device-first scale deployment is the prediction's full-resolution threshold.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 38%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z37.9%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 38.9% → 37.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z38.9%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 40.3% → 38.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.3%-1.9pp
Network propagation: 42.2% → 40.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z42.2%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 42.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.4500.050-0.063
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.4500.050-0.038
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.4500.050-0.034
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.4500.050-0.032
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.450+0.031

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_017
Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50Peter Diamandis
37.7%0.6500.050-0.103
prereq247_035
Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by enDario Amodei
38.8%0.7000.050-0.095
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.082
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.081
prereqSEM_034
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28.7%0.5500.050-0.050

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq247_035Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeBiotech/Longevity
prereq246_017Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Space
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.584manifoldHow much mana will be spent buying tickets for the first $100 draw?mentionspending2026-05-02

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "10x reduction",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X94eBT-VZnc",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "10 grand a kid is a lot of token usage, though. That'll come down a factor of 10. But it's impressive that you're >> we're going to get it down to on device. But that is our And to be honest, like 3 years ago when we started when I became principal, we literally had humans reviewing the video at night annotating",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "10 grand a kid is a lot of token usage, though. That'll come down a factor of 10. But it's impressive that you're >> we're going to get it down to on device.",
  "conv_cues": "that'll come down; we're going to get it down",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future (unspecified)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Inference cost per million tokens drops 50x for GPT-4-class capability (2022-2026)",
      "notes": "HIT — 50x decline already realized for GPT-4-class. Liemandt's 10x reduction target already exceeded for capability-matched inference.",
      "source": "https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/lowest-token-cost-ai-factories/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/lowest-token-cost-ai-factories/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "GPT-4-equivalent capability cost falls from $20/1M tokens (2022) to $0.40/1M tokens (2026) per Stanford AI Index"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First credible on-device education-grade LLM (sub-7B params) achieves curriculum-tutor quality",
      "source": "https://www.spheron.network/blog/ai-inference-cost-economics-2026/",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.spheron.network/blog/ai-inference-cost-economics-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-06-30",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Sub-7B-parameter LLM running on commodity device (Mac, iPhone, Pixel, Snapdragon) demonstrates K-12 tut
... (truncated)