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240_012predictionAIAI-timing

Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source

Prior probability
40.0%
Current probability
34.7%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
2/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-01-01 – 2030-11-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years | People are sleeping on the potential for nutrinobased communication to give us ultra low latency through the earth communication... one can imagine in a few years when we have better physics having nutrones that just go straight through the earth

Verbatim quote

From episode "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse"
People are sleeping on the potential for nutrinobased communication to give us ultra low latency through the earth communication... one can imagine in a few years when we have better physics having nutrones that just go straight through the earth

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 40%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 34.7%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 4 pending
  1. 2025-02-12hitHighest-energy neutrino detection (220 PeV by KM3NeT) validated with follow-up observations
    How: Peer-reviewed Nature publication reporting neutrino energy >=200 PeV with statistical significance
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
  2. 2026-04-30hitKM3NeT detector reaches >10% of full configuration with stable data taking
    How: KM3NeT collaboration announcement that >=10% of detector strings are operational and producing physics data
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
  3. 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFirst proof-of-concept neutrino-encoded data transmission published in peer-reviewed journal
    How: Peer-reviewed paper demonstrating intentional bit-level encoding/decoding of information across neutrino-emitter to detector pair (>1 bit/sec or >0 bit transmission)
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 20%
  4. 2027-01-01 → 2029-01-01pendingDARPA or equivalent agency commits funded program for neutrino-comms feasibility
    How: Public DARPA BAA or equivalent agency program with named neutrino-communication line item and >=$5M funding
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 25%
  5. 2028-01-01 → 2029-04-13pendingDemonstration of through-Earth neutrino signal beyond MINERvA-2012 baseline (>1 kbit through km of rock)
    How: Published experiment demonstrating intentional neutrino-beam communication through >=1 km of rock at >=1 kbit/sec
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 10%
  6. 2028-06-01 → 2029-04-13pendingUltra-low-latency requirement (HFT/military) drives commercial R&D contract on neutrino comms
    How: Public announcement of private-sector R&D investment >=$10M targeting neutrino-comms applications
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 15%
  7. 2036-09-06pendingMoon base will exist in 10 years

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 35%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z34.7%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 35.9% → 34.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z35.9%-1.7pp
Network propagation: 37.5% → 35.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z37.5%-2.5pp
Network propagation: 40.0% → 37.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.4000.050-0.064
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.4000.050-0.042
prereq235_002
Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).Dave Blundin
74.6%0.4000.050-0.039
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.4000.050-0.037
prereqSEM_008
Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will coDario Amodei
76.9%0.4000.050-0.030

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.106
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.104
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.090
prereq239_008
Moon base will exist in 10 yearsElon Musk
28.8%0.5500.050-0.069
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050-0.068

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI
prereq239_008Moon base will exist in 10 yearsSpace

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "Requires better physics breakthrough",
  "context": "I'll I'll make a prediction. Just like people maybe some folks were surprised by the Dyson swarm orbital data data centers. People are sleeping on the potential for nutrinobased communication to give us ultra low latency through the earth communication.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "People are sleeping on the potential for nutrinobased communication to give us ultra low latency through the earth communication... one can imagine in a few years when we have better physics having nutrones that just go straight through the earth",
  "conv_cues": "I'll make a prediction; one can imagine",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "A few years",
  "conv_level": "LOW",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Highest-energy neutrino detection (220 PeV by KM3NeT) validated with follow-up observations",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08543-1",
      "expected_date": "2025-02-12",
      "observed_date": "2025-02-12",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed Nature publication reporting neutrino energy >=200 PeV with statistical significance"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "KM3NeT detector reaches >10% of full configuration with stable data taking",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.globalneutrinonetwork.org/news/2026/gnn-monthly-february-march-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-10-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "KM3NeT collaboration announcement that >=10% of detector strings are operational and producing physics data"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "First proof-of-concept neutrino-encoded data transmission published in peer-reviewed journal",
      "source": "llm_en
... (truncated)