Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source
Prediction text
Neutrino-based communication will give ultra-low latency through the Earth in a few years | People are sleeping on the potential for nutrinobased communication to give us ultra low latency through the earth communication... one can imagine in a few years when we have better physics having nutrones that just go straight through the earth
Verbatim quote
People are sleeping on the potential for nutrinobased communication to give us ultra low latency through the earth communication... one can imagine in a few years when we have better physics having nutrones that just go straight through the earth
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-02-12hitHighest-energy neutrino detection (220 PeV by KM3NeT) validated with follow-up observationsHow: Peer-reviewed Nature publication reporting neutrino energy >=200 PeV with statistical significanceSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
- 2026-04-30hitKM3NeT detector reaches >10% of full configuration with stable data takingHow: KM3NeT collaboration announcement that >=10% of detector strings are operational and producing physics dataSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFirst proof-of-concept neutrino-encoded data transmission published in peer-reviewed journalHow: Peer-reviewed paper demonstrating intentional bit-level encoding/decoding of information across neutrino-emitter to detector pair (>1 bit/sec or >0 bit transmission)Source: llm_enrichedconf 20%
- 2027-01-01 → 2029-01-01pendingDARPA or equivalent agency commits funded program for neutrino-comms feasibilityHow: Public DARPA BAA or equivalent agency program with named neutrino-communication line item and >=$5M fundingSource: llm_enrichedconf 25%
- 2028-01-01 → 2029-04-13pendingDemonstration of through-Earth neutrino signal beyond MINERvA-2012 baseline (>1 kbit through km of rock)How: Published experiment demonstrating intentional neutrino-beam communication through >=1 km of rock at >=1 kbit/secSource: llm_enrichedconf 10%
- 2028-06-01 → 2029-04-13pendingUltra-low-latency requirement (HFT/military) drives commercial R&D contract on neutrino commsHow: Public announcement of private-sector R&D investment >=$10M targeting neutrino-comms applicationsSource: llm_enrichedconf 15%
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.400 | 0.050 | -0.064 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.400 | 0.050 | -0.042 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.400 | 0.050 | -0.039 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.400 | 0.050 | -0.037 |
| prereq | SEM_008 Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will co — Dario Amodei | 76.9% | 0.400 | 0.050 | -0.030 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.106 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.104 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.090 |
| prereq | 239_008 Moon base will exist in 10 years — Elon Musk | 28.8% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.069 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.068 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
| prereq | 239_008 | Moon base will exist in 10 years | Space | — |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"caveats": "Requires better physics breakthrough",
"context": "I'll I'll make a prediction. Just like people maybe some folks were surprised by the Dyson swarm orbital data data centers. People are sleeping on the potential for nutrinobased communication to give us ultra low latency through the earth communication.",
"to_year": 2030,
"verbatim": "People are sleeping on the potential for nutrinobased communication to give us ultra low latency through the earth communication... one can imagine in a few years when we have better physics having nutrones that just go straight through the earth",
"conv_cues": "I'll make a prediction; one can imagine",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2027,
"timeframe": "A few years",
"conv_level": "LOW",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Highest-energy neutrino detection (220 PeV by KM3NeT) validated with follow-up observations",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -11,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08543-1",
"expected_date": "2025-02-12",
"observed_date": "2025-02-12",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed Nature publication reporting neutrino energy >=200 PeV with statistical significance"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "234_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "235_002",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_042",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "KM3NeT detector reaches >10% of full configuration with stable data taking",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://www.globalneutrinonetwork.org/news/2026/gnn-monthly-february-march-2026/",
"expected_date": "2026-10-31",
"observed_date": "2026-04-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-12-31",
"from": "2026-09-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "KM3NeT collaboration announcement that >=10% of detector strings are operational and producing physics data"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "First proof-of-concept neutrino-encoded data transmission published in peer-reviewed journal",
"source": "llm_en
... (truncated)