Regulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regulated
Predictor: Andrew Yang · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source
Prediction text
Regulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regulated | you're going to wind up with a regulatory regime that's very, very pro business. Um, and a lot of people listening to this be like, "Sure." Um, and then most Americans are just going to be looking at it being like, "Yeah, like that happened."
Verbatim quote
you're going to wind up with a regulatory regime that's very, very pro business. Um, and a lot of people listening to this be like, "Sure." Um, and then most Americans are just going to be looking at it being like, "Yeah, like that happened."
Predictor: Andrew Yang
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Andrew Yang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class: regulatory_freeze_window
Major-country regulatory pause/moratorium on AI capability research lasting >6 months
Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-12-11hitTrump December 2025 EO targets state AI regulation, prioritizes innovationHow: Trump signs Executive Order establishing pro-business / pro-innovation federal AI policy and challenges state AI lawsSource: https://www.alston.com/en/insights/publications/2025/12/trump-executive-order-state-ai-regulationconf 99%
- 2026-01-10hitDOJ AI Litigation Task Force launches challenging state AI lawsHow: DOJ Task Force formally stands up and begins federal court challenges to state AI laws on January 10, 2026Source: https://www.alston.com/en/insights/publications/2025/12/trump-executive-order-state-ai-regulationconf 95%
- 2026-01-01 → 2027-06-30pendingPublic polling shows >=70% Americans want AI 'more regulated'How: Major poll (Pew, Gallup, Ipsos) shows >=70% of US adults supporting more federal AI regulation despite federal pro-business postureSource: https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/01/23/1131559/americas-coming-war-over-ai-regulation/conf 75%Notes: Yang cites 80% wanting more regulation; majority public opinion is well-documented.
- 2026-03-01 → 2027-12-31pending$42B broadband funds conditioned on state AI regulation repealHow: Department of Commerce formally conditions broadband infrastructure funding on state repeal of AI regulations deemed onerousSource: https://www.alston.com/en/insights/publications/2025/12/trump-executive-order-state-ai-regulationconf 75%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingMAGA / Republican defection from federal AI deregulationHow: Significant intra-Republican opposition (e.g., Hawley, Vance, state Republican governors) to AI deregulation pushes legislative / executive frictionSource: https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/01/23/1131559/americas-coming-war-over-ai-regulation/conf 60%Notes: Republican fault lines on superintelligence/unemployment risk. Could complicate Yang's 'sure that happened' framing.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.073 |
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.057 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.045 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.022 |
| killer | TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | 20.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.018 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | CMQ_002 By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leve — Sam Altman | 31.4% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.024 |
| prereq | 241_043 ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decad — Peter Diamandis | 35.9% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.021 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | +0.007 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.007 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.003 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 241_043 | ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decade | AI | — |
| prereq | CMQ_002 | By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention. | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-Politician",
"context": "you're going to wind up with a regulatory regime that's very, very pro business. Um, and a lot of people listening to this be like, \"Sure.\" Um, and then most Americans are just going to be looking at it being like, \"Yeah, like that happened.\" Um, but most Americans are uh going to feel like they're on the outside of this one.",
"to_year": 2028,
"verbatim": "you're going to wind up with a regulatory regime that's very, very pro business. Um, and a lot of people listening to this be like, \"Sure.\" Um, and then most Americans are just going to be looking at it being like, \"Yeah, like that happened.\"",
"conv_cues": "going to wind up",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "Near-term",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
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"label":
... (truncated)