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236_029predictionAIAI-timing

Regulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regulated

Predictor: Andrew Yang · ep#236 "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
47.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30
Edges in / out
8 / 5
Tickers exposed
33

Prediction text

Regulatory regime will be very pro-business despite 80% wanting AI more regulated | you're going to wind up with a regulatory regime that's very, very pro business. Um, and a lot of people listening to this be like, "Sure." Um, and then most Americans are just going to be looking at it being like, "Yeah, like that happened."

Verbatim quote

From episode "Andrew Yang: UBI Before UHI, Solving Job Loss, and the Future of Work | #236"
you're going to wind up with a regulatory regime that's very, very pro business. Um, and a lot of people listening to this be like, "Sure." Um, and then most Americans are just going to be looking at it being like, "Yeah, like that happened."

Predictor: Andrew Yang

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0178
excellent
Hits / Misses
0 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
0.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Andrew Yang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: regulatory_freeze_window

Linked via embedding similarity 0.568

Major-country regulatory pause/moratorium on AI capability research lasting >6 months

Base rate
5.0%
0/4 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 47.2% → blend 47.2% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

8 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 47.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2025-12-11hitTrump December 2025 EO targets state AI regulation, prioritizes innovation
    How: Trump signs Executive Order establishing pro-business / pro-innovation federal AI policy and challenges state AI laws
    Source: https://www.alston.com/en/insights/publications/2025/12/trump-executive-order-state-ai-regulationconf 99%
  2. 2026-01-10hitDOJ AI Litigation Task Force launches challenging state AI laws
    How: DOJ Task Force formally stands up and begins federal court challenges to state AI laws on January 10, 2026
    Source: https://www.alston.com/en/insights/publications/2025/12/trump-executive-order-state-ai-regulationconf 95%
  3. 2026-01-01 → 2027-06-30pendingPublic polling shows >=70% Americans want AI 'more regulated'
    How: Major poll (Pew, Gallup, Ipsos) shows >=70% of US adults supporting more federal AI regulation despite federal pro-business posture
    Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/01/23/1131559/americas-coming-war-over-ai-regulation/conf 75%
    Notes: Yang cites 80% wanting more regulation; majority public opinion is well-documented.
  4. 2026-03-01 → 2027-12-31pending$42B broadband funds conditioned on state AI regulation repeal
    How: Department of Commerce formally conditions broadband infrastructure funding on state repeal of AI regulations deemed onerous
    Source: https://www.alston.com/en/insights/publications/2025/12/trump-executive-order-state-ai-regulationconf 75%
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingMAGA / Republican defection from federal AI deregulation
    How: Significant intra-Republican opposition (e.g., Hawley, Vance, state Republican governors) to AI deregulation pushes legislative / executive friction
    Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/2026/01/23/1131559/americas-coming-war-over-ai-regulation/conf 60%
    Notes: Republican fault lines on superintelligence/unemployment risk. Could complicate Yang's 'sure that happened' framing.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 47%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z47.2%+1.3pp
Network propagation: 45.9% → 47.2%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z45.9%+2.7pp
Network propagation: 43.2% → 45.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z43.2%+5.6pp
Network propagation: 37.6% → 43.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z37.6%+10.4pp
Network propagation: 27.2% → 37.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z27.2%+14.6pp
Network propagation: 12.6% → 27.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z12.6%-15.1pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.126 w_in=0.30 regulatory_freeze_window
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z27.7%+15.1pp
Network propagation: 12.6% → 27.7%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z12.6%-47.4pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.126 w_in=0.30 regulatory_freeze_window

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.073
prereq234_012
Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202Peter Diamandis
67.1%0.6000.050-0.057
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.600+0.045
prereqSEM_042
2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finallKevin Weil
73.8%0.6000.050-0.022
killerTK14
Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
20.0%0.0500.600+0.018

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqCMQ_002
By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' leveSam Altman
31.4%0.5500.050-0.024
prereq241_043
ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadPeter Diamandis
35.9%0.6500.050-0.021
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050+0.007
prereq235_030
Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203Ray Kurzweil
39.2%0.7500.050-0.007
prereqSEM_034
True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betweeDemis Hassabis
28.7%0.5500.050+0.003

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUNCRWVSITMNVDAARMGTLBBBAITSMAPLDCEVAAIMSFTMRVLSFTBYORCLQCOMAVGOBABAAMDGOOGLIBMAMZNMETA

Adverse (6)

WNSCHGGCTSHIBMINFYACN

Prerequisites (8)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_002Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).AI
prereqSEM_008Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.AI
prereq234_012Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026Markets/Stocks
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_0422025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.AI/Agents
killerTK14Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq235_030Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.Biotech/Longevity
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq241_043ASI will arrive within 2 years to 5 years to this next decadeAI
prereqCMQ_002By 2028, AI systems will reach 'independent researcher' level — driving autonomous scientific discoveries without human intervention.AI
prereqSEM_034True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.AI/AGI

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE56X2h0wk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-Politician",
  "context": "you're going to wind up with a regulatory regime that's very, very pro business. Um, and a lot of people listening to this be like, \"Sure.\" Um, and then most Americans are just going to be looking at it being like, \"Yeah, like that happened.\" Um, but most Americans are uh going to feel like they're on the outside of this one.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "you're going to wind up with a regulatory regime that's very, very pro business. Um, and a lot of people listening to this be like, \"Sure.\" Um, and then most Americans are just going to be looking at it being like, \"Yeah, like that happened.\"",
  "conv_cues": "going to wind up",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Trump December 2025 EO targets state AI regulation, prioritizes innovation",
      "source": "https://www.alston.com/en/insights/publications/2025/12/trump-executive-order-state-ai-regulation",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.alston.com/en/insights/publications/2025/12/trump-executive-order-state-ai-regulation",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-11",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-11",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Trump signs Executive Order establishing pro-business / pro-innovation federal AI policy and challenges state AI laws"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "DOJ AI Litigation Task Force launches challenging state AI laws",
      "source": "https://www.alston.com/en/insights/publications/2025/12/trump-executive-order-state-ai-regulation",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.alston.com/en/insights/publications/2025/12/trump-executive-order-state-ai-regulation",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-10",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-10",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "DOJ Task Force formally stands up and begins federal court challenges to state AI laws on January 10, 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": 
... (truncated)