In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choices

In 10 years you won't have to drive and will have plenty of choices | but 10 years from now um you won't have to drive and you'll have plenty of choices.

but 10 years from now um you won't have to drive and you'll have plenty of choices.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "10 years",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mh9yC4j0_rI",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "but 10 years from now um you won't have to drive and you'll have plenty of choices. But it's kind of fun to drive so I'd encourage you to get your license.",
  "to_year": 2036,
  "verbatim": "but 10 years from now um you won't have to drive and you'll have plenty of choices.",
  "conv_cues": "won't have to; plenty of choices",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2036,
  "timeframe": "By 2036 (10 years from 2026)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Waymo crosses 1 million paid robotaxi rides per week",
      "source": "Waymo public disclosures; CNBC robotaxi coverage 2025-2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/16/waymo-amazon-zoox-tesla-robotaxi-expansion.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Waymo official disclosure (press release, SEC filing, or executive interview) reports rolling 7-day paid-ride volume >=1,000,000; current run-rate ~500K/week as of early 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Robotaxi services (Waymo + Tesla + Zoox combined) operate in >=25 US metro areas",
      "source": "Humai blog 2026 robotaxi tracker, Tesla/Waymo press releases",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://www.humai.blog/2026-is-the-year-of-autonomous-driving-waymo-in-10-cities-tesla-expanding-where-you-can-already-get-a-robotaxi/",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Sum of distinct US metropolitan service areas with paid public robotaxi rides reaches 25; Waymo at 10-11 cities + Tesla expanding to ~7-10 cities by end-2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Stargate is a $500 billion multiyear capex program for distributed AI data-center construction (2025-2028, with Trump administration partner",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_005",
      "expected_date": "2028-02-09",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Federal NHTSA AV rules enable nationwide Level 4 deployment without state-by-state patchwork",
      "source": "NHTSA rulemaking dockets; AV STEP program",
  
... (truncated)