Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#232 "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232" · source
Prediction text
Solving physics may reveal 'doors behind doors' of new opportunities. | I I think there probably will be doors behind the doors, but there are so many doors that are right in front of us that we haven't yet unlocked that would be, I think, completely economically transformative if if we could use AI to solve them.
Verbatim quote
I I think there probably will be doors behind the doors, but there are so many doors that are right in front of us that we haven't yet unlocked that would be, I think, completely economically transformative if if we could use AI to solve them.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-10-01hitMaterials science AI cuts quantum-phase identification time from months to minutesHow: Published demonstration of AI achieving >100x speedup in quantum materials characterizationSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 80%
- 2026-01-15hitBEE-NET ML model reduces 1.3M superconductor candidates to 741 thermodynamically stable structures with Tc>5KHow: Peer-reviewed paper showing AI-driven discovery of superconductor candidates at >1000x screening throughputSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
- 2026-03-10hitAQuaRef AI+quantum-calc protein-mapping tool produces higher-quality structures at lower cost (71/71 validated)How: Berkeley Lab publishes AI tool that solves previously-intractable protein structuresSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingFirst room-temperature superconductor or near-room-temperature material independently replicated via AI-discovery pipelineHow: Peer-reviewed publication with >2 independent labs confirming AI-discovered material with Tc near 273K at ambient pressureSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 20%
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingAI-discovered drug or material reaches FDA approval / commercial production milestoneHow: Material or molecule wholly identified by generative AI receives regulatory approval or enters mass productionSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 45%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 234_012 Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 202 — Peter Diamandis | 67.1% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.063 |
| prereq | SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil | 73.8% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.038 |
| prereq | 235_002 Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). — Dave Blundin | 74.6% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.034 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.032 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.031 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 — Peter Diamandis | 37.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.103 |
| prereq | 247_035 Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by en — Dario Amodei | 38.8% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.095 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.082 |
| prereq | 235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil | 39.2% | 0.750 | 0.050 | -0.081 |
| prereq | SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis | 28.7% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.050 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (23)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (8)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_002 | Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026). | AI | — |
| prereq | SEM_008 | Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025. | AI | — |
| prereq | 234_012 | Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026 | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_042 | 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream. | AI/Agents | — |
| killer | TK14 | Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 235_030 | Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | SEM_034 | True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'. | AI/AGI | — |
Linked documents (1)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.539 | arxiv | Revisiting semiclassical scalar QED in 1+1 dimensions | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
"mode": "SPECULATION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "I'll I'll answer your your question back to my because I I think about this all day long like what what does great with AI even look like uh and I I I think there probably will be doors behind the doors, but there are so many doors that are right in front of us that we haven't yet unlocked that would be, I think, completely economically transformative if if we could use AI to solve them.",
"to_year": 2031,
"verbatim": "I I think there probably will be doors behind the doors, but there are so many doors that are right in front of us that we haven't yet unlocked that would be, I think, completely economically transformative if if we could use AI to solve them.",
"conv_cues": "probably",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "unspecified",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
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"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Materials science AI cuts quantum-phase identification time from months to minutes",
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"ordinal": -10,
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"confidence": 0.8,
"source_url": "https://phys.org/news/2025-10-physics-ai-excels-large-scale.html",
"expected_date": "2025-10-01",
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"research_origin": "deep_research",
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"ordinal": -9,
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"source_url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41524-026-01964-8",
"expected_date": "2026-01-15",
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"source_url": "https://newscenter.lbl.gov/2026/03/10/cracking-the-code-using-ai-to-solve-difficult-to-map-proteins/",
"expected_date": "2026-03-10",
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"source_id": "SEM_008",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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},
{
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"label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
"status": "hit",
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"ordinal": -5,
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{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
... (truncated)