Startups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers voluntarily pause it.

Startups will continue to deploy dangerous AI tech even after hyperscalers voluntarily pause it. | so far, you know, bite dance is like Google, they have to be cautious and conscientious. They can't just But then every time this happens, a small startup then does it again right after, you know, they don't care because they're a startup.

so far, you know, bite dance is like Google, they have to be cautious and conscientious. They can't just But then every time this happens, a small startup then does it again right after, you know, they don't care because they're a startup.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-VC",
  "context": "So, so far, you know, bite dance is like Google, they have to be cautious and conscientious. They can't just But then every time this happens, a small startup then does it again right after, you know, they don't care because they're a startup.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "so far, you know, bite dance is like Google, they have to be cautious and conscientious. They can't just But then every time this happens, a small startup then does it again right after, you know, they don't care because they're a startup.",
  "conv_cues": "every time this happens",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "recurring / ongoing",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic revenue will cross OpenAI revenue in middle of 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "234_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Anthropic will exceed OpenAI in revenue this year (2026).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "235_002",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Hyperscaler announces voluntary capability moratorium or red-line",
      "notes": "HIT - Meta's Frontier AI Framework explicitly carves out high-risk/critical-risk classes it will not release. Sets the baseline pause behavior.",
      "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/03/meta-says-it-may-stop-development-of-ai-systems-it-deems-too-risky/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/02/03/meta-says-it-may-stop-development-of-ai-systems-it-deems-too-risky/",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-02",
      "observed_date": "2025-02-03",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Meta, Google, OpenAI, or Anthropic publicly states it will not release a class of AI capability deemed too risky (e.g., Meta high-risk/critical-risk framework)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Open-source startup releases capability hyperscaler refused to ship",
      "notes": "Amodei explicitly forecasts open-source matching withheld capabilities within 6-12 months.",
      "source": "https://whatllm.org/blog/new-ai-models-april-2026 - Anthropic Mythos held while open-source closes 6-12 month gap",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "source_url": "https://whatllm.org/blog/new-ai-models-april-2026",
      "expected_da
... (truncated)