Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years.

Figure is effectively sold out on its current customer base for the next two to three years. | we see like you know we're kind of good now for the next like two or three years in terms of like we have so much demand like we like they're kind of waiting for us to like ship at scale.

Watch events: Figure 03 shipment volume; BMW, 2nd customer deployment count

we see like you know we're kind of good now for the next like two or three years in terms of like we have so much demand like we like they're kind of waiting for us to like ship at scale.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S_fXhVT67Uw",
  "mode": "FORECAST",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "we could probably ship like I think I think we could ship an enormous amount of robots into the current customer base we have now. Like um so we see like you know we're kind of good now for the next like two or three years in terms of like we have so much demand like we like they're kind of waiting for us to like ship at scale.",
  "to_year": 2029,
  "verbatim": "we see like you know we're kind of good now for the next like two or three years in terms of like we have so much demand like we like they're kind of waiting for us to like ship at scale.",
  "conv_cues": "kind of good",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "next two or three years",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
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      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Figure announces enterprise customer order book/backlog detail",
      "source": "Figure newsroom + BMW commercial agreement coverage",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://www.figure.ai/news/production-at-bmw",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Figure press release or CEO interview discloses signed-customer count and unit backlog covering 12+ months of BotQ output"
    },
    {
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      "label": "BMW expansion to Plant Leipzig confirmed live in production",
      "source": "BMW Group press release",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T0444265EN/successful-test-of-humanoid-robots-at-bmw-group-plant-spartanburg",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "BMW press release confirms Figure 02/03 humanoids on Leipzig assembly line in summer-2026 production deployment"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Figure raises a 2026/2027 funding round at >=$50B valuation",
      "source": "Pattern from prior $39.5B reported valuation",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-12-31",
        "from": "2026-06-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Bloomberg/Reuters/PitchBook reports priced funding round valuing Figure at >=$50B 
... (truncated)