← Cockpit
248_015predictionLabor/JobsAI-scaling

Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI.

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
50.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-01-01 – 2028-12-31
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Princeton CS brains will be a complete commodity two years from today post-ASI. | look guys you understand your your big huge Princeton brain is the most valuable thing on the planet right now it's going to be a complete commodity two years from today post ASI

Watch events: ARC-AGI-2 scores; Frontier Math Tier 4 benchmark; SWE-bench Verified; Humanity's Last Exam; Neuralink human trial enrollment; first commercial BCI

Verbatim quote

From episode "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248"
look guys you understand your your big huge Princeton brain is the most valuable thing on the planet right now it's going to be a complete commodity two years from today post ASI

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 50.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2026-04-01hitCS graduate unemployment 5.8% exceeds general rate by 2026
    How: Fresh CS graduate unemployment 5.8% vs 4.28% general rate
    Source: https://www.finalroundai.com/blog/software-engineering-job-market-2026conf 90%
  2. 2026-04-08hitSoftware-developer ages 22-25 employment down ~20% vs 2022
    How: CPS data shows software-dev employment age 22-25 down nearly 20% vs 2022
    Source: https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/08/tech/ai-software-developer-jobsconf 90%
  3. 2026-09-01 → 2027-09-30pendingTop-CS-program new-grad starting-salary stagnates or falls vs 2024
    How: Princeton/MIT/Stanford CS new-grad median starting salary ≤2024 nominal level
    Source: University career center reports, NACE salary surveyconf 45%
  4. 2026-12-01 → 2028-06-30pendingCoding-task automation reaches ≥50% of routine tasks
    How: Industry tracker (METR/SWE-bench) shows ≥50% of routine coding tasks autonomously solvable
    Source: METR autonomy benchmark, SWE-bench leaderboardconf 65%
  5. 2027-09-01 → 2028-12-31pendingMedian elite-CS-grad first-job displaced by AI agent assignment
    How: Survey of top-10 CS programs shows ≥50% of grads' first-year work involves overseeing AI agents rather than independent coding
    Source: ACM, IEEE Spectrum surveysconf 50%
    Notes: Direct test of 'Princeton brain becomes commodity'.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 50%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z50.2%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 50.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z51.5%-1.9pp
Network propagation: 53.4% → 51.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z53.4%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 56.2% → 53.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z56.2%-3.8pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 56.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.600-0.095
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.6000.050-0.082
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.600-0.067
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.6000.050-0.044
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.043

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_017
Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50Peter Diamandis
37.7%0.6500.050-0.031
prereq247_035
Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by enDario Amodei
38.8%0.7000.050-0.017
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.010
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050+0.004
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.001

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_029Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training.Semis/Products
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq247_035Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeBiotech/Longevity
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq246_017Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Space
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2028-12-31[Labor/Policy 2028-12] [248_015] ARC-AGI-2 scores; Frontier Math Tier 4 benchmark; SWE-bench Verified; Humanity's Last Exam; Neuralin [ROB_016] Block quarterly headcount metrics; Fortune 500 intelligence-native reorganization cadencpending

Linked documents (7)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.590polymarketLoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner69%mentionspending2026-05-31
0.575polymarketLoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner0%mentionspending2026-05-31
0.572polymarketLoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challengers League Playoffs43%mentionspending2026-05-31
0.555manifoldWhat will the sum of all of my AP scores be?mentionspending2026-05-26
0.552polymarketCounter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage75%mentionspending2026-05-10
0.552polymarketLoL: Conviction vs CCG Esports - Game 2 Winner100%mentionspending2026-06-05
0.544polymarketRoland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly100%mentionspending2026-05-18

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "your big huge Princeton brain is the most valuable thing on the planet right now it's going to be a complete commodity two years from today post ASI",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "look guys you understand your your big huge Princeton brain is the most valuable thing on the planet right now it's going to be a complete commodity two years from today post ASI",
  "conv_cues": "is going to be",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "by 2028",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "CS graduate unemployment 5.8% exceeds general rate by 2026",
      "source": "https://www.finalroundai.com/blog/software-engineering-job-market-2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.finalroundai.com/blog/software-engineering-job-market-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Fresh CS graduate unemployment 5.8% vs 4.28% general rate"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Software-developer ages 22-25 employment down ~20% vs 2022",
      "source": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/08/tech/ai-software-developer-jobs",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/08/tech/ai-software-developer-jobs",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-08",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-08",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "CPS data shows software-dev employment age 22-25 down nearly 20% vs 2022"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI ",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_029",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Top-CS-program new-grad starting-salary stagnates or falls vs 2024",
      "source": "University career center reports, NACE salary survey",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.45,
  
... (truncated)