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231_024predictionAIAI-scaling

Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future.

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#231 "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
46.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future. | the idea that you're going to simulate society from the ground up is complete nonsense so far I don't think it's that far in the future though

Verbatim quote

From episode "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231"
the idea that you're going to simulate society from the ground up is complete nonsense so far I don't think it's that far in the future though

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 46.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2025-02-13hitAgentSociety paper published: 10K LLM-agent simulation with 5M interactions demonstrating emergent macro-phenomena
    How: Peer-reviewed or arXiv paper showing >10K-agent LLM-driven society simulation with replicable macro-phenomena
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 92%
  2. 2025-04-01hitStanford HAI: 1,000-agent simulation replicates real survey responses at 85% accuracy (individual-level fidelity validated)
    How: Stanford or peer institution validates LLM-agent simulation matching real human survey responses >80%
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 88%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingGovernment policy office (UK, US, Singapore) deploys LLM-society sim to test policy interventions before rollout
    How: Public-sector use case documented where policy decision was informed by agent-based AI society simulation
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  4. 2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingSociety sim scales to >1M agents with emergent behavior matching real-world reference dataset
    How: Published research demonstrating million-agent simulation reproducing observed real-world social/economic phenomena within tolerance
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingCommercial 'digital twin society' product launched serving >$10M ARR (vendors like Salesforce, IBM, McKinsey)
    How: SaaS-style population/society simulation product with disclosed multi-million-dollar annual recurring revenue
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 46%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z46.1%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 47.2% → 46.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z47.2%-1.7pp
Network propagation: 48.9% → 47.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z48.9%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 51.5% → 48.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.550-0.086
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.5500.050-0.074
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.550-0.061
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5500.050-0.039
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.039

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq246_017
Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50Peter Diamandis
37.7%0.6500.050-0.056
prereq247_035
Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by enDario Amodei
38.8%0.7000.050-0.043
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.034
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.025
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.010

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_029Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training.Semis/Products
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq247_035Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decadeBiotech/Longevity
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq246_017Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.Space
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "the idea that you're going to simulate society from the ground up is complete nonsense so far I don't think it's that far in the future though but this is",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "the idea that you're going to simulate society from the ground up is complete nonsense so far I don't think it's that far in the future though",
  "conv_cues": "I don't think it's that far",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "not far in the future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AgentSociety paper published: 10K LLM-agent simulation with 5M interactions demonstrating emergent macro-phenomena",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.92,
      "source_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.08691",
      "expected_date": "2025-02-13",
      "observed_date": "2025-02-13",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed or arXiv paper showing >10K-agent LLM-driven society simulation with replicable macro-phenomena"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Stanford HAI: 1,000-agent simulation replicates real survey responses at 85% accuracy (individual-level fidelity validated)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.88,
      "source_url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/policy/simulating-human-behavior-with-ai-agents",
      "expected_date": "2025-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2025-04-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Stanford or peer institution validates LLM-agent simulation matching real human survey responses >80%"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI ",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_029",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Government policy office (UK, US, Singapore) deploys LLM-society sim to test policy interventions before rollout",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pe
... (truncated)