Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future.
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#231 "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231" · source
Prediction text
Ground-up society simulations are complete nonsense so far, but not far in the future. | the idea that you're going to simulate society from the ground up is complete nonsense so far I don't think it's that far in the future though
Verbatim quote
the idea that you're going to simulate society from the ground up is complete nonsense so far I don't think it's that far in the future though
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-02-13hitAgentSociety paper published: 10K LLM-agent simulation with 5M interactions demonstrating emergent macro-phenomenaHow: Peer-reviewed or arXiv paper showing >10K-agent LLM-driven society simulation with replicable macro-phenomenaSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 92%
- 2025-04-01hitStanford HAI: 1,000-agent simulation replicates real survey responses at 85% accuracy (individual-level fidelity validated)How: Stanford or peer institution validates LLM-agent simulation matching real human survey responses >80%Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 88%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingGovernment policy office (UK, US, Singapore) deploys LLM-society sim to test policy interventions before rolloutHow: Public-sector use case documented where policy decision was informed by agent-based AI society simulationSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingSociety sim scales to >1M agents with emergent behavior matching real-world reference datasetHow: Published research demonstrating million-agent simulation reproducing observed real-world social/economic phenomena within toleranceSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 50%
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingCommercial 'digital twin society' product launched serving >$10M ARR (vendors like Salesforce, IBM, McKinsey)How: SaaS-style population/society simulation product with disclosed multi-million-dollar annual recurring revenueSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | -0.086 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.074 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | -0.061 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.039 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.039 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 — Peter Diamandis | 37.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.056 |
| prereq | 247_035 Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by en — Dario Amodei | 38.8% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.043 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.034 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.025 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.010 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_029 | Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training. | Semis/Products | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "the idea that you're going to simulate society from the ground up is complete nonsense so far I don't think it's that far in the future though but this is",
"to_year": 2030,
"verbatim": "the idea that you're going to simulate society from the ground up is complete nonsense so far I don't think it's that far in the future though",
"conv_cues": "I don't think it's that far",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "not far in the future",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "AgentSociety paper published: 10K LLM-agent simulation with 5M interactions demonstrating emergent macro-phenomena",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.92,
"source_url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.08691",
"expected_date": "2025-02-13",
"observed_date": "2025-02-13",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed or arXiv paper showing >10K-agent LLM-driven society simulation with replicable macro-phenomena"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
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"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.88,
"source_url": "https://hai.stanford.edu/policy/simulating-human-behavior-with-ai-agents",
"expected_date": "2025-04-01",
"observed_date": "2025-04-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Stanford or peer institution validates LLM-agent simulation matching real human survey responses >80%"
},
{
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},
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"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_014",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI ",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_029",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Government policy office (UK, US, Singapore) deploys LLM-society sim to test policy interventions before rollout",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pe
... (truncated)