Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yet

Human-like computer agents NOT achievable within a year or two - science doesn't exist yet | it's easy to convince yourself that you're going to have human agents sorry, computer agents that are human-like completely within a year or two. We don't have the science for that yet

it's easy to convince yourself that you're going to have human agents sorry, computer agents that are human-like completely within a year or two. We don't have the science for that yet

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "people are working on it",
  "context": "it's easy to convince yourself that you're going to have human agents... within a year or two. We don't have the science for that yet",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "it's easy to convince yourself that you're going to have human agents sorry, computer agents that are human-like completely within a year or two. We don't have the science for that yet",
  "conv_cues": "we don't have the science",
  "direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2027,
  "timeframe": "within 1-2 years from 2026-03-24",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Schmidt's 'science doesn't exist yet' claim disputed by 'million programmer' rhetoric",
      "notes": "Schmidt himself has been internally inconsistent on agent timelines; this prediction frames the conservative side.",
      "source": "https://san.com/cc/former-google-ceo-predicts-ai-will-replace-most-programmers-in-a-year/",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://san.com/cc/former-google-ceo-predicts-ai-will-replace-most-programmers-in-a-year/",
      "expected_date": "2025-04-15",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Schmidt publicly says 'most programmers replaced within a year' or similar, contradicting his own 'no human-like agents within a year or two' claim"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI ",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_029",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "OpenAI/Anthropic/Google ship long-horizon agent benchmarks (multi-hour tasks)",
      "source": "Anthropic / OpenAI / DeepMind public evals; SWE-bench Verified; METR Long-tasks",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2026-07-02",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "fr
... (truncated)