Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy).
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source
Prediction text
Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illegal (Smoking-ban analogy). | That's gonna happen to driving, too. So, we're, you know, the the self-driving cars are 10 times safer and the last person driving is probably not the best driver... So it's going to go from being like, well, self-driving is a nice feature to drive. You want to drive your own car, you crazy psychopath. You're putting my children at risk because you want to drive and that's that's going to tip. And I don't know if it's like 2, three years, but when it tips, it's going to tip hard.
Verbatim quote
That's gonna happen to driving, too. So, we're, you know, the the self-driving cars are 10 times safer and the last person driving is probably not the best driver... So it's going to go from being like, well, self-driving is a nice feature to drive. You want to drive your own car, you crazy psychopath. You're putting my children at risk because you want to drive and that's that's going to tip. And I don't know if it's like 2, three years, but when it tips, it's going to tip hard.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-03-27hitWaymo passes 500K paid autonomous rides per week across 10 US metrosHow: Waymo public disclosure of >=500K weekly paid trips operating commercially in >=10 US metrosSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 95%
- 2026-10-01 → 2026-12-31pendingWaymo targets 1M weekly paid robotaxi rides by end of 2026How: Waymo or independent telematics report weekly paid trips >=1M for any week in Q4 2026Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingFirst US state legislates phased restriction or dedicated lanes for human-driven vehiclesHow: At least one US state passes statute restricting human-driven vehicle access in any urban zone or highway segmentSource: llm_enrichedconf 35%
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingInsurance industry launches preferred-rate tiering favoring autonomous over human drivingHow: Major US auto insurer publishes rate schedule with explicit penalty surcharge or discount tied to human vs autonomous operationSource: llm_enrichedconf 45%
- 2028-01-01 → 2029-04-11pendingRobotaxi service achieves cost parity with personal vehicle ownership in major US metrosHow: Independent analysis (AAA, Bloomberg) shows robotaxi $/mile <= total cost of ownership $/mile for vehicles in >=3 metrosSource: llm_enrichedconf 55%
- 2028-06-01 → 2029-12-31pendingCultural inflection: manual driving framed as risky/elite hobby in mainstream media coverageHow: Sustained coverage in NYT/WSJ/Atlantic-tier publications framing manual driving as antiquated or dangerous (>=10 features over 6 months)Source: llm_enrichedconf 40%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | -0.086 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.074 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | -0.061 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.039 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.039 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 — Peter Diamandis | 37.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.056 |
| prereq | 247_035 Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by en — Dario Amodei | 38.8% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.043 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.034 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.025 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.021 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_029 | Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training. | Semis/Products | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_035 | Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_017 | Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa. | Space | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2029-12-31 | [Autonomous 2029-12] [230_017] Self-driving will become the norm; manual driving will become uncool, then illeg [243_003] Any state/federal retraining-on-displacement law (CA, NY, WA pending); Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); [244_01 | pending |
Linked documents (2)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.639 | manifold | Will a Waymo self-driving car be involved in a fatal accident before July 1, 2026? | 8% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-27 |
| 0.583 | manifold | Driver allowed to sleep while car drives itself by? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-17 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "10x safer",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"caveats": "Timing uncertain",
"context": "the self-driving cars are 10 times safer... You want to drive your own car, you crazy psychopath... I don't know if it's like 2, three years, but when it tips, it's going to tip hard.",
"to_year": 2029,
"verbatim": "That's gonna happen to driving, too. So, we're, you know, the the self-driving cars are 10 times safer and the last person driving is probably not the best driver... So it's going to go from being like, well, self-driving is a nice feature to drive. You want to drive your own car, you crazy psychopath. You're putting my children at risk because you want to drive and that's that's going to tip. And I don't know if it's like 2, three years, but when it tips, it's going to tip hard.",
"conv_cues": "don't know if it's like 2, three years",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2028,
"timeframe": "2-3 years",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Waymo passes 500K paid autonomous rides per week across 10 US metros",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -11,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/27/waymo-skyrocketing-ridership-in-one-chart/",
"expected_date": "2026-03-27",
"observed_date": "2026-03-27",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Waymo public disclosure of >=500K weekly paid trips operating commercially in >=10 US metros"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": "SEM_011",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": "SEM_027",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_014",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI ",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_029",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Waymo targets 1M weekly paid robotaxi rides by end of 2026",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": "https://www.automotiveworld.com/news/waymos-metric-for-2026-success-one-million-weekly-rides/",
"expected_date": "2026-11-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to
... (truncated)