Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years.

Solving physics with AI has very high likelihood in next 2 years. | If if we are in fact on a a route to not just solving math, which I think is is essentially indisputable uh at at this point, but solving physics in the next two years, I I think is has very high likelihood of happening.

If if we are in fact on a a route to not just solving math, which I think is is essentially indisputable uh at at this point, but solving physics in the next two years, I I think is has very high likelihood of happening.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

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  "context": "If if we are in fact on a a route to not just solving math, which I think is is essentially indisputable uh at at this point, but solving physics in the next two years, I I think is has very high likelihood of happening. then I think there are probably going to be big surprises.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "If if we are in fact on a a route to not just solving math, which I think is is essentially indisputable uh at at this point, but solving physics in the next two years, I I think is has very high likelihood of happening.",
  "conv_cues": "very high likelihood; indisputable",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "next two years",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI discovers novel result in fluid dynamics or PDE singularities",
      "notes": "HIT — DeepMind's first-ever systematic discovery of new unstable singularity families is exactly the 'physics with AI' beachhead Wissner-Gross described.",
      "source": "https://deepmind.google/blog/discovering-new-solutions-to-century-old-problems-in-fluid-dynamics/ — DeepMind systematic discovery of new unstable-singularity families across three fluid equations",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://deepmind.google/blog/discovering-new-solutions-to-century-old-problems-in-fluid-dynamics/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-11-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Peer-reviewed publication of AI-discovered new family of singularities in fluid PDEs (Euler/Navier-Stokes/Boussinesq) accepted in major physics/math journal"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier model achieves IMO gold-medal level on official problems",
      "notes": "HIT — Gemini Deep Think + OpenAI both achieved gold at IMO 2025; supports Wissner-Gross's 'math essentially indisputable' framing.",
      "source": "https://deepmind.google/blog/accelerating-mathematical-and-scientific-discovery-with-gemini-deep-think/ — Gemini Deep Think IMO gold 5/6 problems, 35 points",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://deepmind.google/blog/accelerating-mathematical-and-scientific-discovery-with-gemini-deep-think/",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-07-19",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measuremen
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