Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety.

Two years from now, best AI will not be freely accessible — it will be withheld citing security/safety. | I really doubt uh two years from now that the best AI is going to be just log in and go here, here you can have free access to it. And what'll happen is it'll be you'll be deprived of it with the excuse being security and safety.

I really doubt uh two years from now that the best AI is going to be just log in and go here, here you can have free access to it. And what'll happen is it'll be you'll be deprived of it with the excuse being security and safety.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "I would not count on that surviving post the self-improvement era... I really doubt uh two years from now that the best AI is going to be just log in and go here, here you can have free access to it.",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "I really doubt uh two years from now that the best AI is going to be just log in and go here, here you can have free access to it. And what'll happen is it'll be you'll be deprived of it with the excuse being security and safety.",
  "conv_cues": "really doubt",
  "direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2028,
  "timeframe": "two years from now",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "BIS export controls cap frontier model weights above 10^26 FLOP",
      "notes": "First formal U.S. control on AI model weight exports — a structural precondition for 'best AI withheld'.",
      "source": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/15/2025-00636/framework-for-artificial-intelligence-diffusion — AI Diffusion Framework",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/01/15/2025-00636/framework-for-artificial-intelligence-diffusion",
      "expected_date": "2025-01-15",
      "observed_date": "2025-01-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "U.S. Commerce/BIS publishes rule controlling export of model weights for models trained above 10^26 FLOP threshold"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "California SB 53 frontier-AI safety reporting law in force",
      "source": "https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-californias-ai-safety-law/ — Brookings analysis of California SB 53",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-californias-ai-safety-law/",
      "expected_date": "2025-09-29",
      "observed_date": "2025-09-29",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "California enacts SB 53 imposing safety, incident-reporting, and security obligations on frontier AI developers"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Anthropic relaxes safety pause clause under Pentagon pressure",
      "notes": "Direction is opposite to Blundin's prediction (companies racing to release rather than withhold) — but counts as a measurable real-world data point on the safety/security release axis.",
      "source": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/25/tech/anthropic-safety-policy-change — Anthropic ditches core safety promise during Pentagon AI red-line fight",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/25/tech/anthropic-safety-policy-change",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-25",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-25",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Anthropic publicly removes/softens its Responsible Scaling Policy commitment to pause training if capability outstrips controls"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected
... (truncated)