For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997).

For the next few years more people will end up doing more work, not less (996 turns into 997). | I suspect for the next few years what actually ends up happening is more people end up doing more work because human labor ends up being also in in addition to being a substitute good or service for AI labor. It's also complimentary and as a result you see the people who were still involved with the economy working harder and harder and harder and 996 turns into 997.

I suspect for the next few years what actually ends up happening is more people end up doing more work because human labor ends up being also in in addition to being a substitute good or service for AI labor. It's also complimentary and as a result you see the people who were still involved with the economy working harder and harder and harder and 996 turns into 997.

Beneficiaries (23)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "I suspect for the next few years what actually ends up happening is more people end up doing more work... 996 turns into 997. Yeah. Like you take on more projects and more work and and you're getting less sleep.",
  "to_year": 2029,
  "verbatim": "I suspect for the next few years what actually ends up happening is more people end up doing more work because human labor ends up being also in in addition to being a substitute good or service for AI labor. It's also complimentary and as a result you see the people who were still involved with the economy working harder and harder and harder and 996 turns into 997.",
  "conv_cues": "I suspect",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "next few years",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_008",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_042",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "238_009",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Tier-1 tech company publicly mandates 'AI-augmented productivity expectations' i.e. higher output",
      "source": "Industry signaling pattern (Shopify, Meta, Google return-to-office trajectory)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2026-12-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "measurement_criterion": "FAANG/Mag-7 internal memo leak or earnings call cites raised per-employee output targets; reported by Bloomberg, WSJ, or The Information"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "BLS productivity report shows hours-per-worker holding flat or rising despite AI adoption",
      "source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics productivity series",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/productivity/",
      "expected_date": "2027-03-31",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "measurement_criterion": "BLS Productivity and Costs Q4 2026 release shows nonfarm business hours worked stable or up YoY; quarterly release"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "ADP/large-employer survey shows AI-augmented roles working longer hours than peers",
      "source": "ADP Research Institute trend reports",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "expected_date": "2027-06-30",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "measurement_criterion": "ADP Research Institute or Gallup workplace report shows knowledge workers using generative AI tools log >=40 hr/wk vs control; published study"
    },
    {
      "kin
... (truncated)