238_006predictionLabor/JobsAI-timing

Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years)

Predictor: Emad Mostaque · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source

Prior probability

50.0%

Current probability

40.1%

evolves via intake + LBP

Conviction

4/5

Signal quality

Resolution

pending

Window

2026-01-01 – 2028-12-31

Edges in / out

7 / 5

Tickers exposed

Prediction text

Coders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years) | I still remember Immod was it three years ago you were on this stage and and you said uh coders are going to go away. Yeah. In the next five years. in X5 they've gone away in in three years

Verbatim quote

From episode "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238"

I still remember Immod was it three years ago you were on this stage and and you said uh coders are going to go away. Yeah. In the next five years. in X5 they've gone away in in three years

Predictor: Emad Mostaque

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22

Full calibration →

κ (discount)

0.722

Brier

0.0073

excellent

Hits / Misses

3 / 0

of 4 resolved

Hit rate

75.0%

Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Emad Mostaque is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows

intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 40.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.

Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 7 pending

2023-03-08hitMostaque made original 'no programmers in 5 years' claim at India event
How: On-record statement by Emad Mostaque at March 2023 India tech event predicting human programmers will be obsolete within 5 years (i.e., by ~2028)
Source: https://decrypt.co/147191/no-human-programmers-five-years-ai-stability-ceoconf 99%
Notes: HIT — The original prediction is well-documented in Decrypt and other outlets. The current 238_006 statement re-confirms it 3 years later.
2024-10-29hitAI generates ~30% of code written at major tech firms
How: Public statement by major tech CEO (Google, Microsoft, Meta) that >25% of new code in production is AI-generated
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/29/google-ceo-sundar-pichai-says-more-than-25percent-of-new-code-is-ai-generated.htmlconf 97%
Notes: HIT — Sundar Pichai disclosed >25% AI-generated code on Q3 2024 earnings call. Mostaque cited 41% GitHub figure later.
2026-04-24hitMeta + Microsoft 20K layoff round announced explicitly citing AI automation
How: Meta and Microsoft jointly announce ~20,000 workforce reductions citing AI as enabling factor (per CNBC, AI Business Review reporting)
Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/24/20k-job-cuts-at-meta-microsoft-raise-concern-of-ai-labor-crisis-.htmlconf 95%
Notes: HIT — Meta + Microsoft announced ~20K combined cuts April 24 2026 explicitly tied to AI automation in software testing, content moderation, engineering
2026-04-29hitNvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a
2026-04-29hitTraining runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.
2026-04-29hit2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.
2026-04-29hitRecursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)
2026-06-30pendingTech industry layoffs cross 100K in 2026 H1, ~50% AI-attributed
How: Cumulative tech-sector layoffs in 2026 H1 exceed 100,000 with explicit AI/automation citation in WARN filings or company statements (per Tom's Hardware/Layoffs.fyi tracker)
Source: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/tech-industry-lays-off-nearly-80-000-employees-in-the-first-quarter-of-2026-almost-50-percent-of-affected-positions-cut-due-to-aiconf 85%
Notes: Q1 2026 already at ~80K with ~50% AI-attributed; trajectory implies >100K by mid-year
2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingBLS software developer employment ticks down YoY for first time
How: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics OES data shows YoY decline in 'software developers' employment (SOC 15-1252) in 2026 or 2027 release
Source: https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes151252.htmconf 45%
Notes: Counter-evidence: April 2026 CNN reporting suggests dev openings still growing as AI shifts work to oversight rather than eliminates it.
2026-09-01 → 2027-03-31pendingTraditional software-engineering job postings decline >20% YoY
How: BLS/LinkedIn/Indeed software-engineer postings (excluding AI/ML titles) drop ≥20% YoY for two consecutive quarters
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/05/01/ai-jobs-tech-layoffs-austerity/conf 70%
Notes: Traditional SWE postings already -15%; AI-specific postings +340% since 2024
2026-01-01 → 2027-12-31pendingJunior software engineering hiring collapses at FAANG-tier firms
How: Levels.fyi or LinkedIn data show >50% YoY decline in entry-level (L3/E3/SDE-I) hiring across at least 3 of {Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple}
Source: https://www.levels.fyi/conf 55%
2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingJunior/entry-level developer hiring contracts 30%+ at FAANG-tier
How: Aggregate new-grad SWE offers at top 20 tech employers fall ≥30% vs 2024 baseline (per public hiring reports / new-grad job board data)
Source: https://aimultiple.com/ai-job-lossconf 75%
2027-06-30pendingAnthropic/OpenAI claim agentic systems handle full BU-scale workloads
How: Either Anthropic or OpenAI publicly claims their agents are doing the equivalent work of >1 'business unit' of staff with revenue/cost validation in earnings or research blog
Source: https://www.anthropic.com/research/labor-market-impactsconf 70%
2027-01-01 → 2028-12-31pendingAI agents autonomously ship merged PRs at scale (>10K/day) at a Fortune-500
How: Public disclosure (earnings call, blog) by Fortune-500 firm that AI coding agents merge >10,000 PRs/day with human review only
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/08/tech/ai-software-developer-jobsconf 40%
Notes: Cascade — The 'oversight model' rather than total replacement is the likely interim form.
2028-03-18pendingCoders will go away in the next five years (original prediction made ~3 years ago; confirmed happening in 3 years)
2028-12-31pendingProgrammer headcount roughly flat through 2028 — Mostaque prediction MISS
How: Total programmers/developers headcount globally in 2028 within ±15% of 2025 peak per BLS + LinkedIn Workforce Reports
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/08/tech/ai-software-developer-jobsconf 55%
Notes: Mostaque's strict 'gone away' claim looks unlikely given April 2026 reporting. Likely outcome: workflow shift, not extinction.
2030-04-18pendingDario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade
2030-10-10pendingEuropa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.
2033-07-30pendingRay Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.
2034-09-16pendingDragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.
2039-09-22pendingTrue artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.

(live posterior: 40%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first

LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z40.1%+1.2pp

Network propagation: 38.9% → 40.1%

4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8

LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z38.9%+2.4pp

Network propagation: 36.4% → 38.9%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96

LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z36.4%+4.8pp

Network propagation: 31.6% → 36.4%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29

LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z31.6%+8.6pp

Network propagation: 23.0% → 31.6%

6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9

milestone miss2026-05-01T22:09:22Z23.0%-21.8pp

44.8%(inside prior)→23.0%(Bayes, κ=0.72)(no blend — node not linked)

2 milestones missed · 30d grace

Show missed milestones

LLR -0.693 · moderate · expected 2023-03-08
Mostaque made original 'no programmers in 5 years' claim at India event
LLR -0.693 · moderate · expected 2024-10-31
AI generates ~30% of code written at major tech firms

LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z44.8%-2.0pp

Network propagation: 46.8% → 44.8%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3

LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.8%-3.2pp

Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.8%

5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact

All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
killer	TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	10.0%	0.050	0.500	+0.054
killer	TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	15.0%	0.050	0.500	+0.032
prereq	SEM_042 2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finall — Kevin Weil	73.8%	0.500	0.050	-0.023
prereq	SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang	75.0%	0.500	0.050	-0.017
killer	TK14 Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	20.0%	0.050	0.500	+0.009

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

Kind	Node	Their prob	P(c\|s=T)	P(c\|s=F)	Δ implied
prereq	246_017 Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 — Peter Diamandis	37.7%	0.650	0.050	-0.083
prereq	247_035 Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by en — Dario Amodei	38.8%	0.700	0.050	-0.073
prereq	246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis	35.6%	0.650	0.050	-0.062
prereq	235_030 Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 203 — Ray Kurzweil	39.2%	0.750	0.050	-0.057
prereq	SEM_034 True artificial general intelligence will be achieved betwee — Demis Hassabis	28.7%	0.550	0.050	-0.033

Ticker exposure

33 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (23)

SOUN CRWV SITM NVDA ARM GTLB BBAI TSM APLD CEVA AI MSFT MRVL SFTBY ORCL QCOM AVGO BABA AMD GOOGL IBM AMZN META

Adverse (6)

WNS CHGG CTSH IBM INFY ACN

Prerequisites (7)

Predictions that must hit first

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	238_009	Recursive self-improvement is already happening now (no longer three years out)	AI	—
prereq	SEM_008	Training runs costing $10 billion for a single model will commence sometime in 2025.	AI	—
prereq	SEM_042	2025 will be the definitive year that agentic systems finally hit the mainstream.	AI/Agents	—
prereq	SEM_012	Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.	AI/Manufacturing	—
killer	TK14	Superbubble Pop (S&P 500 -40%, Moonshot Capital Evaporates)	—	—
killer	TK01	AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)	—	—
killer	TK03	AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)	—	—

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this

Type	Pred	Title	Domain	Lag
prereq	235_030	Ray Kurzweil predicts Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV) by 2033.	Biotech/Longevity	—
prereq	247_035	Dario Amodei will solve most/all neurological diseases by end of decade	Biotech/Longevity	—
prereq	246_017	Europa Clipper will arrive at Jupiter in 2030, conducting 50 passes near Europa.	Space	—
prereq	246_016	Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.	Space	—
prereq	SEM_034	True artificial general intelligence will be achieved between 2032 and 2042 — 'first we solve AI, then use AI to solve everything else'.	AI/AGI	—

Expected milestones (6)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers

Expected by	Description	Status
2023-03-08	Mostaque made original 'no programmers in 5 years' claim at India event	missed
2024-10-31	AI generates ~30% of code written at major tech firms	missed
2027-06-30	BLS software developer employment ticks down YoY for first time	pending
2027-12-31	Junior software engineering hiring collapses at FAANG-tier firms	pending
2028-12-31	AI agents autonomously ship merged PRs at scale (>10K/day) at a Fortune-500	pending
2028-12-31	Programmer headcount roughly flat through 2028 — Mostaque prediction MISS	pending

Linked documents (8)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Sim	Source	Title	Market prob	Polarity	Reviewed	Published
0.646	manifold	which will happen first? (Codeforces Rating)	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-24
0.638	manifold	In what year will there be 5000 emoji?	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-24
0.621	manifold	Will Unicode remove an existing emoji before the end of 2030?	14%	mentions	pending	2026-05-24
0.607	manifold	Will @EliezerYudkowsky pose in a five-guys-wearing-fedoras-behind-Aella-who-is-on-a-sofa picture before 2027?	21%	mentions	pending	2026-05-06
0.571	manifold	Will The Gameoverse Pilot reach 25 million views by the end of June?	37%	mentions	pending	2026-05-12
0.570	manifold	Will an Average New Zealander born in the year 2000 live to 150? (RESOLVES IN A WEEK)	38%	mentions	pending	2026-06-03
0.568	manifold	In 2050, who will think a Trump assassination attempt was a false flag? [Resolves to %]	—	mentions	pending	2026-04-27
0.567	manifold	Will I Pass My Exams or Will I Pass Away?	—	mentions	pending	2026-05-28

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Immod was it three years ago you were on this stage and and you said uh coders are going to go away. Yeah. In the next five years. in X5 they've gone away in in three years but you know was amazing when you said that on the stage it made news throughout India... today's lexicon you would say coding is cooked",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "verbatim": "I still remember Immod was it three years ago you were on this stage and and you said uh coders are going to go away. Yeah. In the next five years. in X5 they've gone away in in three years",
  "conv_cues": "correct prediction; coding is cooked",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "By 2028 (3 years from 2025)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Mostaque made original 'no programmers in 5 years' claim at India event",
      "notes": "HIT — The original prediction is well-documented in Decrypt and other outlets. The current 238_006 statement re-confirms it 3 years later.",
      "source": "https://decrypt.co/147191/no-human-programmers-five-years-ai-stability-ceo",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -14,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://decrypt.co/147191/no-human-programmers-five-years-ai-stability-ceo",
      "expected_date": "2023-03-08",
      "observed_date": "2023-03-08",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "On-record statement by Emad Mostaque at March 2023 India tech event predicting human programmers will be obsolete within 5 years (i.e., by ~2028)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI generates ~30% of code written at major tech firms",
      "notes": "HIT — Sundar Pichai disclosed >25% AI-generated code on Q3 2024 earnings call. Mostaque cited 41% GitHub figure later.",
      "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/29/google-ceo-sundar-pichai-says-more-than-25percent-of-new-code-is-ai-generated.html",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -13,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/29/google-ceo-sundar-pichai-says-more-than-25percent-of-new-code-is-ai-generated.html",
      "expected_date": "2024-10-31",
      "observed_date": "2024-10-29",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public statement by major tech CEO (Google, Microsoft, Meta) that >25% of new code in production is AI-generated"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Meta + Microsoft 20K layoff round announced explicitly citing AI automation",
      "notes": "HIT — Meta + Microsoft announced ~20K combined cuts April 24 2026 explicitly tied to AI automation in software testing, content moderation, engineering",
      "source": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/24/20k-job-cuts-at-meta-microsoft-raise-concern-of-ai-labor-crisis-.html",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -12,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/24/20k-job-cuts-at-meta-microsoft-raise-concern-of-ai-labor-crisis-.html",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-25",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-24",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Meta and Microsoft jointly announce ~20,000 workforce reductions citing AI as enabling factor (per CNBC, AI Business Review reporting)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prere
... (truncated)