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231_022predictionConsumerAI-scaling

Young people getting smart glasses in their teens will have their entire life recorded; no crime will go unvisualized.

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#231 "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
49.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Young people getting smart glasses in their teens will have their entire life recorded; no crime will go unvisualized. | young people today, uh getting this in their teens will have their entire life recorded. They'll be able to go back and play back will be able to reconstruct almost any situation. No crime will go without being visualized in some sense.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231"
young people today, uh getting this in their teens will have their entire life recorded. They'll be able to go back and play back will be able to reconstruct almost any situation. No crime will go without being visualized in some sense.

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 49.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 4 pending
  1. 2025-09-30hitMeta Ray-Ban Display + Neural Band launches with 48-hour sellout
    How: Meta launches Ray-Ban Display Smart Glasses with neural-band wristband interface; product sells out within 48 hours of public availability.
    Source: Meta Store — Meta AI Glasses: Ray-Ban Meta & Oakley Metaconf 95%
    Notes: HIT — display + neural input is the bridge to continuous capture. Fast sellout signals demand outpacing supply.
  2. 2026-02-11hitMeta + Ray-Ban / Oakley smart glasses sales triple to 7M units in 2025
    How: EssilorLuxottica officially reports 2025 Meta AI Glasses sales above 7 million units, tripling YoY, with Meta capturing 70%+ of the global smart glasses market.
    Source: CNBC — Ray-Ban maker EssilorLuxottica says it more than tripled Meta AI glasses sales in 2025conf 97%
    Notes: HIT — direct precondition for ubiquity. Smart-glasses adoption is now exiting niche.
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingContinuous-recording smart glasses ship with always-on capture as default option
    How: A major OEM (Meta, Apple, Google, Samsung) ships smart glasses with marketed 'always-on capture' or 'lifelogging' as a default opt-in feature, with multi-hour battery life.
    Source: Anticipated — OEM product announcements, FCC filingsconf 55%
    Notes: Required for 'entire life recorded' framing. Currently Meta records only on demand.
  4. 2027-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingFirst major US criminal case admits smart-glass first-person POV recording as evidence
    How: A US court of record (state or federal) admits smart-glasses first-person video as evidence in a criminal trial, generating local-or-national news coverage.
    Source: Anticipated — court records, news media coverageconf 60%
    Notes: Direct test of 'no crime will go unvisualized' framing. Body-cam precedent suggests low legal bar.
  5. 2028-01-01 → 2030-12-31pendingUS smart-glasses penetration in Gen Z (16-24) exceeds 25%
    How: Pew Research, Counterpoint, or YouGov reports US Gen Z (ages 16-24) smart-glasses ownership above 25%, demonstrating teen-cohort saturation.
    Source: Anticipated — Pew Research, Counterpoint, YouGov surveysconf 40%
    Notes: Cascade — direct test of 'getting this in their teens' clause for Blundin's specific generational claim.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 50%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z49.5%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 50.7% → 49.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z50.7%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 52.9% → 50.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z52.9%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 55.8% → 52.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z55.8%-4.2pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 55.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.600-0.088
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.6000.050-0.076
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.6000.050-0.075
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.600-0.060
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.050

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_057
First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by OpDave Blundin
34.8%0.6000.050-0.029
prereq242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Dave Blundin
34.2%0.6000.050-0.023
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.013
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.004
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050+0.000

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq232_057First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Robotics
prereq242_023World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Macro/Economy

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "on the good side, it means that you know, young people today, uh getting this in their teens will have their entire life recorded. They'll be able to go back and play back will be able to reconstruct almost any situation. No crime will go without being visualized in some sense.",
  "to_year": 2035,
  "verbatim": "young people today, uh getting this in their teens will have their entire life recorded. They'll be able to go back and play back will be able to reconstruct almost any situation. No crime will go without being visualized in some sense.",
  "conv_cues": "will have; no crime will",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Meta Ray-Ban Display + Neural Band launches with 48-hour sellout",
      "notes": "HIT — display + neural input is the bridge to continuous capture. Fast sellout signals demand outpacing supply.",
      "source": "Meta Store — Meta AI Glasses: Ray-Ban Meta & Oakley Meta",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.meta.com/ai-glasses/meta-ray-ban-display/",
      "expected_date": "2025-09-30",
      "observed_date": "2025-09-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Meta launches Ray-Ban Display Smart Glasses with neural-band wristband interface; product sells out within 48 hours of public availability."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Meta + Ray-Ban / Oakley smart glasses sales triple to 7M units in 2025",
      "notes": "HIT — direct precondition for ubiquity. Smart-glasses adoption is now exiting niche.",
      "source": "CNBC — Ray-Ban maker EssilorLuxottica says it more than tripled Meta AI glasses sales in 2025",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/11/ray-ban-maker-essilorluxottica-triples-sales-of-meta-ai-glasses.html",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-11",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "EssilorLuxottica officially reports 2025 Meta AI Glasses sales above 7 million units, tripling YoY, with Meta capturing 70%+ of the global smart glasses market."
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "p
... (truncated)