TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.

TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long. | those fabs, you know, that that's a commitment to spend that amount over like four or five years. They'll be online in five, six, seven years. It's like so far into the future. Yan's not going to wait for that.

those fabs, you know, that that's a commitment to spend that amount over like four or five years. They'll be online in five, six, seven years. It's like so far into the future. Yan's not going to wait for that.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "$100B for 4+ US fabs",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "those fabs, you know, that that's a commitment to spend that amount over like four or five years. They'll be online in five, six, seven years. It's like so far into the future. Yan's not going to wait for that.",
  "to_year": 2033,
  "verbatim": "those fabs, you know, that that's a commitment to spend that amount over like four or five years. They'll be online in five, six, seven years. It's like so far into the future. Yan's not going to wait for that.",
  "conv_cues": "they'll be online",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2031,
  "timeframe": "5-7 years",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
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      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
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      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI ",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_029",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Lobsters (agentic AIs) will ultimately gain first-class physical embodiment as robots.",
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      "source_id": "230_007",
      "expected_date": "2030-06-20",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.",
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      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "231_038",
      "expected_date": "2032-12-02",
      "observed_date": null
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    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.",
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      "expected_date": "2034-09-16",
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      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036",
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      "kind": "cascade",
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      "observed_date": null
    },
 
... (truncated)