← Cockpit
SEM_013predictionPolicy/Semishardware

Every nation needs to build advanced chip manufacturing capability — sovereign semiconductor production is existential.

Predictor: Jensen Huang

Prior probability
85.0%
Current probability
73.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
A
Resolution
in_progress
Window
2025-01-01 – 2030-12-31
Edges in / out
3 / 5
Tickers exposed
32

Prediction text

Every nation needs to build advanced chip manufacturing capability — sovereign semiconductor production is existential. | Every nation needs to build it | CHIPS Act + global sovereign fab announcements

Key catalyst: CHIPS Act + global sovereign fab announcements

Watch events: National chip-subsidy package announcements; CHIPS Act grant disbursements

Verbatim quote

From episode "Forecasts and Strategic Vectors in the Global Semiconductor and Compute Manufacturing Ecosystem (2023-2026)"
Every nation needs to build it

Resolution evidence

Status: in_progress

EU Chips Act €43B, South Korea K-Chips Act, Japan METI TSMC Kumamoto, India ISM — multiple sovereign fab programs active 2025-2026.

Predictor: Jensen Huang

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.808
Brier
0.0128
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 0
of 8 resolved
Hit rate
75.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Jensen Huang is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: fab_construction_3y

Linked via embedding similarity 0.639

Greenfield semiconductor fab construction within 3 years of announce

Base rate
58.0%
7/12 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 73.0% → blend 73.0% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 85%2026-04-302026-05-022026-05-24
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 73.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 1 overdue ⏱ · 2 pending
  1. 2026-02-16overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2027-04-04pendingQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2028-05-19pendingQ3 window check-in (75%)

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 73%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-24T02:00:02Z73.0%-1.6pp
Network propagation: 74.7% → 73.0%
4-iter LBP, residual 0.01000 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 806b02f8
intake_event_update2026-05-21T23:15:16Z74.7%-5.6pp
intake:7afeeb9a-f217-4dd2-b910-24ff14bdfc39 bayesian_v2 inside=0.877 blend=0.747 LLR=0.560 κ=0.81 w_in=0.46 fab_construction_3y
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.7689639564571706,
  "kappa": 0.8077,
  "base_rate": 0.58,
  "predictor": "Jensen Huang",
  "total_llr": 0.6931471805599453,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 1.407106887569142,
  "bayes_factor": "1.8:1 favoring",
  "blend_reason": "blend 46% inside / 54% outside (TRF=0.769, base_rate=0.580 from fab_construction_3y)",
  "inside_prior": 0.8033092227944032,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": 0.6931471805599453,
      "kappa": 0.8077,
      "label": "China explicitly pursuing sovereign chip capability; US adding sovereign-control conditions.",
      "adjusted_llr": 0.5598549777382678
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "intake_event_update",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.4617252304799805,
  "outside_weight": 0.5382747695200194,
  "posterior_prob": 0.7468603096917472,
  "evidence_origin": "daily_intake",
  "llm_suggestions": [
    {
      "polarity": "corroborates",
      "status_change": "unchanged",
      "evidence_strength": "moderate",
      "delta_prob_suggestion": 0.04
    }
  ],
  "posterior_logit": 1.966961865307409,
  "predictor_brier": 0.01276,
  "evidence_doc_ids": [],
  "inside_posterior": 0.8772844130438128,
  "blended_posterior": 0.7468603096917472,
  "reference_class_id": "fab_construction_3y",
  "total_adjusted_llr": 0.5598549777382678,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 8
}
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-02T22:07:21Z69.4%-3.1pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.803 blend=0.694 LLR=-0.327 κ=0.81 w_in=0.46 fab_construction_3y
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.7776612898262938,
  "kappa": 0.8077,
  "base_rate": 0.58,
  "predictor": "Jensen Huang",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": 1.7346010553881064,
  "bayes_factor": "1.4:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "blend 45% inside / 54% outside (TRF=0.778, base_rate=0.580 from fab_construction_3y)",
  "inside_prior": 0.85,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": true,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "kappa": 0.8077,
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": null,
      "source_url": null,
      "adjusted_llr": -0.32749416781896434,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-16",
      "measurement_criterion": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.45563709712159434,
  "outside_weight": 0.5443629028784056,
  "posterior_prob": 0.6935642894290549,
  "posterior_logit": 1.407106887569142,
  "predictor_brier": 0.01276,
  "inside_posterior": 0.8033092227944032,
  "blended_posterior": 0.6935642894290549,
  "reference_class_id": "fab_construction_3y",
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.32749416781896434,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 8
}
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z72.4%+0.0pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.850 blend=0.724 w_in=0.45 fab_construction_3y
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z72.4%-12.6pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.850 blend=0.724 w_in=0.45 fab_construction_3y

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.850-0.160
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.850+0.056
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.850+0.024

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Dave Blundin
34.2%0.6000.050+0.105
prereq232_057
First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by OpDave Blundin
34.8%0.6000.050+0.099
prereq230_024
Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due Dave Blundin
39.6%0.6000.050+0.051
prereq246_010
SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company witPeter Diamandis
42.7%0.6000.050+0.020
prereq231_038
TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait tDave Blundin
44.0%0.6000.050+0.007

Ticker exposure

32 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

ALABAMBAARMASMLCEVACRWVIRENMUNBISNVDASITMTSMAMDNXPIANETMRVLCSCODELLAVGOSIEGYLNVGYAMATQCOMATEYY

Adverse (4)

AMATINTCLRCXAMD

Prerequisites (3)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq246_010SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.Markets/Stocks
prereq232_057First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Robotics
prereq231_038TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.AI
prereq242_023World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Macro/Economy
prereq230_024Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.Biotech/Longevity

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2030-12-31[Capability 2030-12] [SEM_013] National chip-subsidy package announcements; CHIPS Act grant disbursements [AUT_028] Next >$50B cluster announcement; Stargate progression [SEM_001] xAI/OpenAI/Meta/MSFT single-site power contracts >pending

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29partialthesis_timeline_v1.0_importEU Chips Act €43B, South Korea K-Chips Act, Japan METI TSMC Kumamoto, India ISM — multiple sovereign fab programs active 2025-2026.

Linked documents (1)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.624manifoldWill a semiconductor fabrication plant project in Australia be announced before June 1st 2027?66%mentionspending2026-06-02

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "Huang framed domestic chip fabrication as matter of sovereign survival after US pressured Nvidia to onshore to Arizona TSMC fab.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "Every nation needs to build it",
  "conv_cues": "explicitly framed; sovereign survival",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2025,
  "timeframe": "ongoing 2025+",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q1 window check-in (25%)",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2026-02-16",
      "observed_date": null,
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-02T22:07:21.384228+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep"
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q2 window check-in (50%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2027-04-04",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "quartile_checkpoint",
      "label": "Q3 window check-in (75%)",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.05,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "expected_date": "2028-05-19",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Every nation needs to build advanced chip manufacturing capability — sovereign semiconductor production is existential.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "SEM_013",
      "expected_date": "2029-07-05",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "SpaceX/XAI/Tesla will be the first $100 trillion company within 5 years.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "246_010",
      "expected_date": "2031-05-22",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "232_057",
      "expected_date": "2031-06-17",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "TSMC fabs will come online in 5-6-7 years; Elon won't wait that long.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "231_038",
      "expected_date": "2032-12-02",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "242_023",
      "expected_date": "2036-03-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 5,
      "source_id": "230_024",
      "expected_date": "2063-06-17",
      "observed_date": null
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "sub_domain": "Semis",
  "affiliation": "NVIDIA",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "granularity": "YEAR_RANGE",
  "source_refs": "5",
  "target_date": "2027-06-15",
  "display_date": "2029-07-05",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-21T00:00:00",
  "key_catalyst": "CHIPS Act + global sovereign fab announcements",
  "parse_method": "YEAR_RANGE midpoint",
  "domain_bucket": "Semis",
  "episode_title": "Forecasts and Strategic Vectors in the Global Semiconductor and Compute Manufacturing Ecosystem (2023-2026)",
  "fault_line_id": "F003, F007, F008",
  "flag_repeated": false,
  "in_5yr_window": true,
  "source_report": "Semiconductor_Prediction_Research_Plan.md (2026-04-21)",
  "appears_in_eps": "SEM-RPT",
  "futurist_phase": "Phase 1 (2026)",
  "is_macro_claim": false,
  "total_mentions": 1,
  "priority_weight": 5,
  "ps_clus
... (truncated)