← Cockpit
231_028predictionMacro/EconomyAI-scaling

Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace.

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#231 "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
49.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace. | the rate of society is going to go up 10x, 100x, a thousandx, then a millionx. And there's no way the courts are going to accelerate.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231"
the rate of society is going to go up 10x, 100x, a thousandx, then a millionx. And there's no way the courts are going to accelerate.

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 49.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2026-01-31hitAI inference cost per million tokens falls >=90% vs 2023
    How: Frontier-class model inference cost falls >=90% from early 2023 baseline (proxy for compute speedup)
    Source: Brownstone Research: Cost of Intelligence; OpenAI/Anthropic pricing pagesconf 95%
    Notes: HIT — 92% reduction confirmed. Direct measure of 10x->100x->1000x compute capability rollout.
  2. 2026-03-31hit1,500+ AI-related state bills introduced by Q1 2026
    How: Multistate AI legislation tracker confirms >=1,500 bills introduced across >=40 states by end Q1 2026
    Source: Baker Botts: US Artificial Intelligence Law Update January 2026conf 95%
    Notes: HIT — 1,500+ bills in 45 states by March 2026, exceeding all of 2025. Lawmaking can't keep pace with deployment.
  3. 2026-04-15hitFederal judges publicly acknowledge legal system trailing AI pace
    How: IAPP Global Summit 2026 or peer judicial event records federal judges acknowledging tech-pace gap
    Source: IAPP: US federal judges discuss intersection of emerging tech, AI with legal systemconf 95%
    Notes: HIT — federal judges at IAPP 2026 explicitly stated 'pace of the development of the technology... makes it harder for the already trailing legal system to catch up.'
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFirst major US court adopts AI-augmented case management at scale
    How: Federal circuit or state supreme court announces production AI-augmented filing review / scheduling / docketing covering >=10K cases/year
    Source: Government Technology: Future-Proofing Justice — AI Cloud Court Techconf 65%
    Notes: Tests whether courts attempt to keep pace via AI adoption (still slow vs society's 10-1000x Blundin claims).
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingAI capability doubles 4+ times within 24 months (Google Gemini doubling time)
    How: Frontier model benchmark suite (METR, MMLU-Pro, ARC-AGI-2) shows 4+ doublings in capability over rolling 24-month window
    Source: METR Long-Horizon Benchmarks; Brownstone Research doubling time estimatesconf 55%
    Notes: Direct test of '10x -> 100x -> 1000x' progression in target window.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 50%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z49.5%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 50.7% → 49.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z50.7%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 52.9% → 50.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z52.9%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 55.8% → 52.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z55.8%-4.2pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 55.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.600-0.088
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.6000.050-0.076
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.6000.050-0.075
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.600-0.060
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.050

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_057
First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by OpDave Blundin
34.8%0.6000.050-0.029
prereq242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Dave Blundin
34.2%0.6000.050-0.023
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.013
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.004
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050+0.000

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq232_057First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Robotics
prereq242_023World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Macro/Economy

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "10x to 1,000,000x",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "the rate of society is going to go up 10x, 100x, a thousandx, then a millionx. And there's no way the courts are going to accelerate.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "the rate of society is going to go up 10x, 100x, a thousandx, then a millionx. And there's no way the courts are going to accelerate.",
  "conv_cues": "going to go up",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "AI inference cost per million tokens falls >=90% vs 2023",
      "notes": "HIT — 92% reduction confirmed. Direct measure of 10x->100x->1000x compute capability rollout.",
      "source": "Brownstone Research: Cost of Intelligence; OpenAI/Anthropic pricing pages",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.brownstoneresearch.com/bleeding-edge/the-cost-of-intelligence/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-28",
      "observed_date": "2026-01-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Frontier-class model inference cost falls >=90% from early 2023 baseline (proxy for compute speedup)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "1,500+ AI-related state bills introduced by Q1 2026",
      "notes": "HIT — 1,500+ bills in 45 states by March 2026, exceeding all of 2025. Lawmaking can't keep pace with deployment.",
      "source": "Baker Botts: US Artificial Intelligence Law Update January 2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.bakerbotts.com/thought-leadership/publications/2026/january/us-ai-law-update",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Multistate AI legislation tracker confirms >=1,500 bills introduced across >=40 states by end Q1 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Federal judges publicly acknowledge legal system trailing AI pace",
      "notes": "HIT — federal judges at IAPP 2026 explicitly stated 'pace of the development of the technology... makes it harder for the already trailing legal system to catch up.'",
      "source": "IAPP: US federal judges discuss intersection of eme
... (truncated)