Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace.
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#231 "Top AI News: Sonnet 4.6, Grok 4.2, Gemini 3 Deep Think, and OpenClaw | EP #231" · source
Prediction text
Rate of society will go up 10x, 100x, 1000x, then 1 millionx - courts won't keep pace. | the rate of society is going to go up 10x, 100x, a thousandx, then a millionx. And there's no way the courts are going to accelerate.
Verbatim quote
the rate of society is going to go up 10x, 100x, a thousandx, then a millionx. And there's no way the courts are going to accelerate.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-31hitAI inference cost per million tokens falls >=90% vs 2023How: Frontier-class model inference cost falls >=90% from early 2023 baseline (proxy for compute speedup)Source: Brownstone Research: Cost of Intelligence; OpenAI/Anthropic pricing pagesconf 95%Notes: HIT — 92% reduction confirmed. Direct measure of 10x->100x->1000x compute capability rollout.
- 2026-03-31hit1,500+ AI-related state bills introduced by Q1 2026How: Multistate AI legislation tracker confirms >=1,500 bills introduced across >=40 states by end Q1 2026Source: Baker Botts: US Artificial Intelligence Law Update January 2026conf 95%Notes: HIT — 1,500+ bills in 45 states by March 2026, exceeding all of 2025. Lawmaking can't keep pace with deployment.
- 2026-04-15hitFederal judges publicly acknowledge legal system trailing AI paceHow: IAPP Global Summit 2026 or peer judicial event records federal judges acknowledging tech-pace gapSource: IAPP: US federal judges discuss intersection of emerging tech, AI with legal systemconf 95%Notes: HIT — federal judges at IAPP 2026 explicitly stated 'pace of the development of the technology... makes it harder for the already trailing legal system to catch up.'
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingFirst major US court adopts AI-augmented case management at scaleHow: Federal circuit or state supreme court announces production AI-augmented filing review / scheduling / docketing covering >=10K cases/yearSource: Government Technology: Future-Proofing Justice — AI Cloud Court Techconf 65%Notes: Tests whether courts attempt to keep pace via AI adoption (still slow vs society's 10-1000x Blundin claims).
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-06-30pendingAI capability doubles 4+ times within 24 months (Google Gemini doubling time)How: Frontier model benchmark suite (METR, MMLU-Pro, ARC-AGI-2) shows 4+ doublings in capability over rolling 24-month windowSource: METR Long-Horizon Benchmarks; Brownstone Research doubling time estimatesconf 55%Notes: Direct test of '10x -> 100x -> 1000x' progression in target window.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.088 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.076 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.075 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.060 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.050 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_057 First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Op — Dave Blundin | 34.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.029 |
| prereq | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 — Dave Blundin | 34.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.023 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.013 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.004 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.000 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 232_057 | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 242_023 | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Macro/Economy | — |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "10x to 1,000,000x",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "the rate of society is going to go up 10x, 100x, a thousandx, then a millionx. And there's no way the courts are going to accelerate.",
"to_year": 2030,
"verbatim": "the rate of society is going to go up 10x, 100x, a thousandx, then a millionx. And there's no way the courts are going to accelerate.",
"conv_cues": "going to go up",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "future",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "AI inference cost per million tokens falls >=90% vs 2023",
"notes": "HIT — 92% reduction confirmed. Direct measure of 10x->100x->1000x compute capability rollout.",
"source": "Brownstone Research: Cost of Intelligence; OpenAI/Anthropic pricing pages",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -10,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.brownstoneresearch.com/bleeding-edge/the-cost-of-intelligence/",
"expected_date": "2026-02-28",
"observed_date": "2026-01-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Frontier-class model inference cost falls >=90% from early 2023 baseline (proxy for compute speedup)"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "1,500+ AI-related state bills introduced by Q1 2026",
"notes": "HIT — 1,500+ bills in 45 states by March 2026, exceeding all of 2025. Lawmaking can't keep pace with deployment.",
"source": "Baker Botts: US Artificial Intelligence Law Update January 2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://www.bakerbotts.com/thought-leadership/publications/2026/january/us-ai-law-update",
"expected_date": "2026-03-31",
"observed_date": "2026-03-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Multistate AI legislation tracker confirms >=1,500 bills introduced across >=40 states by end Q1 2026"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": "SEM_011",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": "SEM_027",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_014",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Federal judges publicly acknowledge legal system trailing AI pace",
"notes": "HIT — federal judges at IAPP 2026 explicitly stated 'pace of the development of the technology... makes it harder for the already trailing legal system to catch up.'",
"source": "IAPP: US federal judges discuss intersection of eme
... (truncated)