Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first.

Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first. | Your your um public school I'm going to be doing this for 20 years. Mackenzie's in for 20 years. The public school side I think is going to be like the second decade, not the first decade, which is we're doing a lot. It's all private, right?

Your your um public school I'm going to be doing this for 20 years. Mackenzie's in for 20 years. The public school side I think is going to be like the second decade, not the first decade, which is we're doing a lot. It's all private, right?

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Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "second decade",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X94eBT-VZnc",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "caveats": "Based on 20-year commitment and expected regulatory resistance",
  "context": "Your your um public school I'm going to be doing this for 20 years. Mackenzie's in for 20 years. The public school side I think is going to be like the second decade, not the first decade, which is we're doing a lot. It's all private, right? It's with v, you know, there's a whole set of schools.",
  "to_year": 2046,
  "verbatim": "Your your um public school I'm going to be doing this for 20 years. Mackenzie's in for 20 years. The public school side I think is going to be like the second decade, not the first decade, which is we're doing a lot. It's all private, right?",
  "conv_cues": "I think is going to be",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2036,
  "timeframe": "Years 11-20 from now (~2036-2046)",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -11,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI ",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_029",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Google and Nvidia will both do incredibly well due to TPU/GPU positioning",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "241_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Alpha School Timeback EducationOS launches publicly (homeschoolers, new private schools)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://alpha.school/the-future-of-education-joe-liemandts-vision-for-alpha-school/",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Public launch announcement on alpha.school or via Liemandt; Timeback platform available to non-Alpha private/homeschool customers"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Alpha School expands to 25 private campuses (current scaling target)",
      "source": "deep_research_enri
... (truncated)