Google and Nvidia will both do incredibly well due to TPU/GPU positioning
Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source
Prediction text
Google and Nvidia will both do incredibly well due to TPU/GPU positioning | Google is particularly well positioned... These are major industrial achievements. And that's why both companies will do incredibly well
Verbatim quote
Google is particularly well positioned... These are major industrial achievements. And that's why both companies will do incredibly well
Predictor: Eric Schmidt
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-02-28hitNvidia data-center revenue exceeds $50B in a single quarterHow: Nvidia Q3 FY2026 reports data center revenue >= $50B with YoY growth >50%Source: https://siliconanalysts.com/analysis/nvidia-ai-accelerator-market-share-2024-2026conf 95%Notes: HIT — Q3 FY26 data center revenue $51.2B (+66% YoY).
- 2026-04-30hitMeta signs contract to rent Google Cloud TPUs starting 2026How: Meta publicly confirms multi-year TPU rental agreement with Google Cloud beginning in 2026Source: https://www.thestreet.com/investing/meta-platforms-may-signal-major-ai-market-shift-in-2026conf 85%Notes: HIT — confirmed by reporting.
- 2026-01-01 → 2027-04-30pendingNvidia FY2026 annual revenue crosses $200BHow: Nvidia reports FY2026 annual revenue >= $200B per S&P Global Ratings forecastSource: https://siliconanalysts.com/analysis/nvidia-ai-accelerator-market-share-2024-2026conf 70%
- 2026-04-30hitGoogle TPU market share exceeds 13% of AI accelerator revenueHow: Industry research report confirms Google TPU revenue share >= 13% in cloud AI accelerator marketSource: https://siliconanalysts.com/analysis/nvidia-ai-accelerator-market-share-2024-2026conf 90%Notes: HIT — TPUs already 13.1% in 2025 reporting.
- 2026-12-31pendingBoth NVDA and GOOGL deliver positive 2026 calendar-year stock returnsHow: NVDA and GOOGL both close 2026 calendar year with positive total returnsSource: Yahoo Finance, Bloombergconf 50%Notes: Direct test of both will do incredibly well claim.
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.091 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.091 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.023 |
| prereq | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated — Jensen Huang | 86.1% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.008 |
| prereq | SEM_011 Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 20 — Jensen Huang | 85.5% | 0.600 | 0.050 | +0.006 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 233_008 Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the — Joe Liemandt | 32.3% | 0.400 | 0.050 | -0.097 |
| prereq | 230_024 Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due — Dave Blundin | 39.6% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.070 |
| prereq | 232_057 First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Op — Dave Blundin | 34.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.022 |
| prereq | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 — Dave Blundin | 34.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.016 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (2)
Prerequisites (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
Dependents (4)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_057 | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 242_023 | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Macro/Economy | — |
| prereq | 230_024 | Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity. | Biotech/Longevity | — |
| prereq | 233_008 | Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first. | Education | — |
Linked documents (6)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.728 | manifold | Will Google or NVIDIA be worth more on June 1? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-01 |
| 0.675 | gdelt | why keep buying nvidia stock 160006739.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.659 | gdelt | 10729180 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.645 | polymarket | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | 71% | mentions | pending | 2025-11-11 |
| 0.643 | polymarket | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-16 |
| 0.639 | polymarket | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | 91% | mentions | pending | 2025-10-10 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Guest-CEO",
"context": "both companies will do incredibly well",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "Google is particularly well positioned... These are major industrial achievements. And that's why both companies will do incredibly well",
"direction": "UP",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "near future",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Nvidia data-center revenue exceeds $50B in a single quarter",
"notes": "HIT — Q3 FY26 data center revenue $51.2B (+66% YoY).",
"source": "https://siliconanalysts.com/analysis/nvidia-ai-accelerator-market-share-2024-2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.95,
"source_url": "https://siliconanalysts.com/analysis/nvidia-ai-accelerator-market-share-2024-2026",
"expected_date": "2026-03-31",
"observed_date": "2026-02-28",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Nvidia Q3 FY2026 reports data center revenue >= $50B with YoY growth >50%"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
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"source_id": "SEM_011",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
"status": "hit",
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{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
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"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "event",
"label": "Google and Nvidia will both do incredibly well due to TPU/GPU positioning",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 1,
"ordinal": 0,
"source_id": "241_015",
"expected_date": "2026-06-23",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Meta signs contract to rent Google Cloud TPUs starting 2026",
"notes": "HIT — confirmed by reporting.",
"source": "https://www.thestreet.com/investing/meta-platforms-may-signal-major-ai-market-shift-in-2026",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": 1,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.85,
"source_url": "https://www.thestreet.com/investing/meta-platforms-may-signal-major-ai-market-shift-in-2026",
"expected_date": "2026-06-30",
"observed_date": "2026-04-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Meta publicly confirms multi-year TPU rental agreement with Google Cloud beginning in 2026"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Nvidia FY2026 annual revenue crosses $200B",
"source": "https://siliconanalysts.com/analysis/nvidia-ai-accelerator-market-share-2024-2026",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": 2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": "https://siliconanalysts.com/analysis/nvidia-ai-accelerator-market-share-2024-2026",
"expected_date": "2026-08-31",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-04-30",
"from": "2026-01-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "Nvidia reports FY2026 annual revenue >= $200B per S&P Global Ratings f
... (truncated)