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241_015predictionMarkets/StocksNVIDIA

Google and Nvidia will both do incredibly well due to TPU/GPU positioning

Predictor: Eric Schmidt · ep#241 "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
51.1%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
5 / 4
Tickers exposed
30

Prediction text

Google and Nvidia will both do incredibly well due to TPU/GPU positioning | Google is particularly well positioned... These are major industrial achievements. And that's why both companies will do incredibly well

Verbatim quote

From episode "Eric Schmidt on the Robotics Race, Singularity Timeline, and Energy Shortage"
Google is particularly well positioned... These are major industrial achievements. And that's why both companies will do incredibly well

Predictor: Eric Schmidt

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.688
Brier
0.0064
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 0
of 3 resolved
Hit rate
100.0%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Eric Schmidt is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 51.1%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓
  1. 2026-02-28hitNvidia data-center revenue exceeds $50B in a single quarter
    How: Nvidia Q3 FY2026 reports data center revenue >= $50B with YoY growth >50%
    Source: https://siliconanalysts.com/analysis/nvidia-ai-accelerator-market-share-2024-2026conf 95%
    Notes: HIT — Q3 FY26 data center revenue $51.2B (+66% YoY).
  2. 2026-04-30hitMeta signs contract to rent Google Cloud TPUs starting 2026
    How: Meta publicly confirms multi-year TPU rental agreement with Google Cloud beginning in 2026
    Source: https://www.thestreet.com/investing/meta-platforms-may-signal-major-ai-market-shift-in-2026conf 85%
    Notes: HIT — confirmed by reporting.
  3. 2026-01-01 → 2027-04-30pendingNvidia FY2026 annual revenue crosses $200B
    How: Nvidia reports FY2026 annual revenue >= $200B per S&P Global Ratings forecast
    Source: https://siliconanalysts.com/analysis/nvidia-ai-accelerator-market-share-2024-2026conf 70%
  4. 2026-04-30hitGoogle TPU market share exceeds 13% of AI accelerator revenue
    How: Industry research report confirms Google TPU revenue share >= 13% in cloud AI accelerator market
    Source: https://siliconanalysts.com/analysis/nvidia-ai-accelerator-market-share-2024-2026conf 90%
    Notes: HIT — TPUs already 13.1% in 2025 reporting.
  5. 2026-12-31pendingBoth NVDA and GOOGL deliver positive 2026 calendar-year stock returns
    How: NVDA and GOOGL both close 2026 calendar year with positive total returns
    Source: Yahoo Finance, Bloombergconf 50%
    Notes: Direct test of both will do incredibly well claim.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 51%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z51.1%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 52.6% → 51.1%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z52.6%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 55.2% → 52.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z55.2%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 57.2% → 55.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z57.2%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 57.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.6000.050-0.091
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.6000.050-0.091
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.600+0.023
prereqSEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated Jensen Huang
86.1%0.6000.050+0.008
prereqSEM_011
Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 20Jensen Huang
85.5%0.6000.050+0.006

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq233_008
Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in theJoe Liemandt
32.3%0.4000.050-0.097
prereq230_024
Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due Dave Blundin
39.6%0.6000.050-0.070
prereq232_057
First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by OpDave Blundin
34.8%0.6000.050-0.022
prereq242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Dave Blundin
34.2%0.6000.050-0.016

Ticker exposure

30 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

ALABAMBAARMASMLCEVACRWVIRENMUNBISNVDASITMTSMQCOMAMDANETMRVLNXPIATEYYAVGOCSCODELLSIEGYAMATLNVGY

Adverse (2)

AMDINTC

Prerequisites (5)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)

Dependents (4)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq232_057First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Robotics
prereq242_023World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Macro/Economy
prereq230_024Under a certain age (40-50) life expectancy is infinity due to longevity escape velocity.Biotech/Longevity
prereq233_008Public school adoption of Alpha model will take place in the second decade, not the first.Education

Linked documents (6)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.728manifoldWill Google or NVIDIA be worth more on June 1?mentionspending2026-05-01
0.675gdeltwhy keep buying nvidia stock 160006739.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30
0.659gdelt10729180mentionspending2026-04-30
0.645polymarketWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?71%mentionspending2025-11-11
0.643polymarketWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?0%mentionspending2026-04-16
0.639polymarketWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?91%mentionspending2025-10-10

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpwmmXmzvfo",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Guest-CEO",
  "context": "both companies will do incredibly well",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "Google is particularly well positioned... These are major industrial achievements. And that's why both companies will do incredibly well",
  "direction": "UP",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "near future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Nvidia data-center revenue exceeds $50B in a single quarter",
      "notes": "HIT — Q3 FY26 data center revenue $51.2B (+66% YoY).",
      "source": "https://siliconanalysts.com/analysis/nvidia-ai-accelerator-market-share-2024-2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://siliconanalysts.com/analysis/nvidia-ai-accelerator-market-share-2024-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-31",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-28",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Nvidia Q3 FY2026 reports data center revenue >= $50B with YoY growth >50%"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "Google and Nvidia will both do incredibly well due to TPU/GPU positioning",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "241_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Meta signs contract to rent Google Cloud TPUs starting 2026",
      "notes": "HIT — confirmed by reporting.",
      "source": "https://www.thestreet.com/investing/meta-platforms-may-signal-major-ai-market-shift-in-2026",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://www.thestreet.com/investing/meta-platforms-may-signal-major-ai-market-shift-in-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-30",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Meta publicly confirms multi-year TPU rental agreement with Google Cloud beginning in 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Nvidia FY2026 annual revenue crosses $200B",
      "source": "https://siliconanalysts.com/analysis/nvidia-ai-accelerator-market-share-2024-2026",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://siliconanalysts.com/analysis/nvidia-ai-accelerator-market-share-2024-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-04-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Nvidia reports FY2026 annual revenue >= $200B per S&P Global Ratings f
... (truncated)