US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fix job dislocation
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source
Prediction text
US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fix job dislocation | we don't have a power production problem in this country. We have a power transmission and storage problem in this country... if you're right, and I hope you are, and I think you probably are, then we need lots and lots of regional data centers that have to be in every single state. And that would be the the best thing that could ever happen for this job dislocation.
Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates
Verbatim quote
we don't have a power production problem in this country. We have a power transmission and storage problem in this country... if you're right, and I hope you are, and I think you probably are, then we need lots and lots of regional data centers that have to be in every single state. And that would be the the best thing that could ever happen for this job dislocation.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-30overdueFERC Order on data center colocation finalized in PJMHow: FERC issues final rule per DOE directive deadline of 2026-04-30 enabling joint co-located load+gen interconnection in PJMSource: White & Case + FERC.gov coverageconf 70%
- 2026-12-31pendingDistributed regional DC built next to job-displaced county announcedHow: Press release or DOE/state-level announcement of <=10MW DC sited specifically in a high unemployment county for re-skilling rationaleSource: Donovan thesis + DataCenter World 2026 community engagement themeconf 50%
- 2026-12-31pendingMajor utility or DOE report explicitly frames problem as transmission/storage (not generation)How: DOE/EIA/FERC report or major utility (NextEra, Duke, Southern) public filing explicitly attributes >=50% of bottleneck to transmission/storage vs generationSource: Sustainability Dialogue interconnection backlog framingconf 70%
- 2027-07-31pendingPJM 2027 capacity auction prices reflect grid shortfall (>=$300/MW-day)How: PJM Base Residual Auction clears at >=$300/MW-day for 2027/2028 delivery year per PJM auction results announcementSource: PJM 6GW shortfall by 2027 + NERC summer riskconf 70%
- 2027-06-01 → 2028-09-07pendingJob-creation tied to distributed DCs cited in BLS or state-level labor dataHow: BLS QCEW or state labor department report attributes >=10k jobs in non-MSA counties to distributed-DC ecosystemSource: Composite of distributed-DC labor narrativeconf 40%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
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"kappa": 0.8214,
"base_rate": null,
"predictor": "Dave Blundin",
"total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
"grace_days": 7,
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"bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
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"n_milestones": 1,
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"contributions": [
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"kind": "llm_pre_event",
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"label": "FERC Order on data center colocation finalized in PJM",
"weight": 0.4,
"strength": "weak",
"confidence": 0.7,
"source_url": "https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/doe-directs-ferc-accelerate-interconnection-data-centers",
"adjusted_llr": -0.23313432786003233,
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"measurement_criterion": "FERC issues final rule per DOE directive deadline of 2026-04-30 enabling joint co-located load+gen interconnection in PJM"
}
],
"evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
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"predictor_n_resolved": 9
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | S_GRID_50GW_2029 50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029 | 50.0% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.112 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.088 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.078 |
| prereq | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated — Jensen Huang | 86.1% | 0.550 | 0.050 | +0.064 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.063 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_057 First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Op — Dave Blundin | 34.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.068 |
| prereq | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 — Dave Blundin | 34.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.062 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.056 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.046 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.042 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (11)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| prereq | S_GRID_50GW_2029 | 50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029 | energy_grid_expansion | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 232_057 | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 242_023 | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Macro/Economy | — |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
"mode": "THESIS",
"role": "Host",
"caveats": "conditional",
"context": "we don't have a power production problem in this country. We have a power transmission and storage problem in this country... if you're right, and I hope you are, and I think you probably are, then we need lots and lots of regional data centers that have to be in every single state. And that would be the the best thing that could ever happen for this job dislocation.",
"verbatim": "we don't have a power production problem in this country. We have a power transmission and storage problem in this country... if you're right, and I hope you are, and I think you probably are, then we need lots and lots of regional data centers that have to be in every single state. And that would be the the best thing that could ever happen for this job dislocation.",
"conv_cues": "probably are; the best thing",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"timeframe": "Near-term",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
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{
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"source_url": "https://www.jsa.net/data-center-world-2026-recap-ai-factorie
... (truncated)