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238_067predictionEnergyAI-scaling

US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fix job dislocation

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#238 "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
41.2%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-04-30 – 2029-10-31
Edges in / out
11 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

US power problem is transmission/storage, not production — distributed regional data centers will fix job dislocation | we don't have a power production problem in this country. We have a power transmission and storage problem in this country... if you're right, and I hope you are, and I think you probably are, then we need lots and lots of regional data centers that have to be in every single state. And that would be the the best thing that could ever happen for this job dislocation.

Watch events: BLS employment reports; tech layoff trackers; Underemployment rate; Yang quarterly updates

Verbatim quote

From episode "Meta Buys Moltbook, GPT 5.4, and Fruitfly Brain Upload | Moonshots Live at The Abundance Summit 238"
we don't have a power production problem in this country. We have a power transmission and storage problem in this country... if you're right, and I hope you are, and I think you probably are, then we need lots and lots of regional data centers that have to be in every single state. And that would be the the best thing that could ever happen for this job dislocation.

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 41.2%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 5 pending
  1. 2026-04-30overdueFERC Order on data center colocation finalized in PJM
    How: FERC issues final rule per DOE directive deadline of 2026-04-30 enabling joint co-located load+gen interconnection in PJM
    Source: White & Case + FERC.gov coverageconf 70%
  2. 2026-12-31pendingDistributed regional DC built next to job-displaced county announced
    How: Press release or DOE/state-level announcement of <=10MW DC sited specifically in a high unemployment county for re-skilling rationale
    Source: Donovan thesis + DataCenter World 2026 community engagement themeconf 50%
  3. 2026-12-31pendingMajor utility or DOE report explicitly frames problem as transmission/storage (not generation)
    How: DOE/EIA/FERC report or major utility (NextEra, Duke, Southern) public filing explicitly attributes >=50% of bottleneck to transmission/storage vs generation
    Source: Sustainability Dialogue interconnection backlog framingconf 70%
  4. 2027-07-31pendingPJM 2027 capacity auction prices reflect grid shortfall (>=$300/MW-day)
    How: PJM Base Residual Auction clears at >=$300/MW-day for 2027/2028 delivery year per PJM auction results announcement
    Source: PJM 6GW shortfall by 2027 + NERC summer riskconf 70%
  5. 2027-06-01 → 2028-09-07pendingJob-creation tied to distributed DCs cited in BLS or state-level labor data
    How: BLS QCEW or state labor department report attributes >=10k jobs in non-MSA counties to distributed-DC ecosystem
    Source: Composite of distributed-DC labor narrativeconf 40%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 41%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z41.2%+1.3pp
Network propagation: 39.9% → 41.2%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-08T22:15:34Z39.9%-5.7pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.399 blend=0.399 LLR=-0.233 κ=0.82 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 0.9930254044002911,
  "kappa": 0.8214,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Dave Blundin",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.17583553776135388,
  "bayes_factor": "1.3:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.45615402703646923,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.5749799999999999,
      "label": "FERC Order on data center colocation finalized in PJM",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/doe-directs-ferc-accelerate-interconnection-data-centers",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.23313432786003233,
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "measurement_criterion": "FERC issues final rule per DOE directive deadline of 2026-04-30 enabling joint co-located load+gen interconnection in PJM"
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3048822169197962,
  "outside_weight": 0.6951177830802038,
  "posterior_prob": 0.3991591537537455,
  "posterior_logit": -0.4089698656213862,
  "predictor_brier": 0.0491,
  "inside_posterior": 0.3991591537537455,
  "blended_posterior": 0.3991591537537455,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.23313432786003233,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 9
}
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z45.6%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 48.5% → 45.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z48.5%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 51.2% → 48.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.2%-3.8pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqS_GRID_50GW_2029
50GW grid expansion by Dec 2029
50.0%0.5500.050-0.112
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.088
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.550+0.078
prereqSEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated Jensen Huang
86.1%0.5500.050+0.064
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.550+0.063

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_057
First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by OpDave Blundin
34.8%0.6000.050-0.068
prereq242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Dave Blundin
34.2%0.6000.050-0.062
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.056
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.046
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.042

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (11)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
prereqS_GRID_50GW_202950GW grid expansion by Dec 2029energy_grid_expansion
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq232_057First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Robotics
prereq242_023World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Macro/Economy

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__HRChE2ZE",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "conditional",
  "context": "we don't have a power production problem in this country. We have a power transmission and storage problem in this country... if you're right, and I hope you are, and I think you probably are, then we need lots and lots of regional data centers that have to be in every single state. And that would be the the best thing that could ever happen for this job dislocation.",
  "verbatim": "we don't have a power production problem in this country. We have a power transmission and storage problem in this country... if you're right, and I hope you are, and I think you probably are, then we need lots and lots of regional data centers that have to be in every single state. And that would be the the best thing that could ever happen for this job dislocation.",
  "conv_cues": "probably are; the best thing",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Near-term",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "FERC Order on data center colocation finalized in PJM",
      "source": "White & Case + FERC.gov coverage",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "source_url": "https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/doe-directs-ferc-accelerate-interconnection-data-centers",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-08T22:15:34.476563+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "FERC issues final rule per DOE directive deadline of 2026-04-30 enabling joint co-located load+gen interconnection in PJM"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Distributed regional DC built next to job-displaced county announced",
      "source": "Donovan thesis + DataCenter World 2026 community engagement theme",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.5,
      "source_url": "https://www.jsa.net/data-center-world-2026-recap-ai-factorie
... (truncated)