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230_019predictionMarkets/StocksAI-scaling

The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old.

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
47.0%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2028-06-01 – 2028-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old. | But the insurance industry, every team and executive I've met has not even begun to plan for the post AGI world. So the old is going away and it's going to go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old.

Watch events: ARC-AGI-2 scores; Frontier Math Tier 4 benchmark; SWE-bench Verified; Humanity's Last Exam

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230"
But the insurance industry, every team and executive I've met has not even begun to plan for the post AGI world. So the old is going away and it's going to go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old.

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: agi_breakthrough_5y

Linked via embedding similarity 0.590

Major capability discontinuity (e.g. AGI by named target year, 5-year horizon)

Base rate
20.0%
1/5 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 47.0% → blend 47.0% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 47.0%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 1 pending

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 47%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z47.0%+1.1pp
Network propagation: 45.9% → 47.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z45.9%+2.3pp
Network propagation: 43.7% → 45.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z43.7%+4.5pp
Network propagation: 39.2% → 43.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z39.2%+9.2pp
Network propagation: 30.0% → 39.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z30.0%-9.9pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.300 w_in=0.30 agi_breakthrough_5y
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z39.8%+9.9pp
Network propagation: 30.0% → 39.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z30.0%-30.0pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.600 blend=0.300 w_in=0.30 agi_breakthrough_5y

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.075
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.600+0.064
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.600-0.062
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.6000.050-0.051
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.6000.050-0.050

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_057
First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by OpDave Blundin
34.8%0.6000.050-0.037
prereq242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Dave Blundin
34.2%0.6000.050-0.030
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.021
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.012
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.007

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq232_057First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Robotics
prereq242_023World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Macro/Economy

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "But the insurance industry, every team and executive I've met has not even begun to plan for the post AGI era. So the old is going away and it's going to go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old.",
  "to_year": 2030,
  "verbatim": "But the insurance industry, every team and executive I've met has not even begun to plan for the post AGI world. So the old is going away and it's going to go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old.",
  "conv_cues": "going to go away faster",
  "direction": "MIXED",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "unspecified",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "SEM_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "The old (non-AGI insurance) will go away faster than people think, but the new is much bigger than the old.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "230_019",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "232_057",
      "expected_date": "2031-06-17",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "246_016",
      "expected_date": "2034-09-16",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 3,
      "source_id": "242_023",
      "expected_date": "2036-03-23",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 4,
      "source_id": "240_036",
     
... (truncated)