Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#234 "Anthropic vs. The Pentagon, Claude Outpaces ChatGPT, and Consulting Gets Replaced" · source
Prediction text
Distant spectacular real estate will go up in value, not inner city | don't buy a very expensive downtown New York $20 million rooftop apartment. Instead, buy some really, really nice piece of real estate that's a little distant, you know, a little hard to get to, um, but absolutely spectacular. That's what's going to go up in value, not the not the inner city.
Verbatim quote
don't buy a very expensive downtown New York $20 million rooftop apartment. Instead, buy some really, really nice piece of real estate that's a little distant, you know, a little hard to get to, um, but absolutely spectacular. That's what's going to go up in value, not the not the inner city.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-06-30pendingSotheby's 2026 Luxury Outlook flags rural / destination luxury as outperformerHow: Sotheby's 2026 Luxury Outlook (or equivalent CB / Knight Frank report) lists destination/rural luxury markets in top growth tierSource: https://worldluxurychamber.com/2026-luxury-outlook-sothebys-international-realty-wlcc/ - 2026 Luxury Outlook publishedconf 65%
- 2026-06-30pendingPwC ULI 2026 Emerging Trends ranks tier-2 / destination markets above gateway citiesHow: PwC ULI Emerging Trends 2026 Top 10 markets list contains majority non-gateway cities (favoring Sun Belt / destination over NYC, SF, Chicago, Boston)Source: https://americas.uli.org/pwc-uli-report-reveals-2026-real-state-trends/ - 2026 Real Estate Trends transforming where we live/work/investconf 65%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingResort/destination luxury markets (Aspen, Jackson, Sun Valley, Hamptons) appreciate >5% YoYHow: Knight Frank Prime International Residential Index or LMR shows destination luxury index +5% YoYSource: https://www.luxuryhomemarketing.com/assets/LMR_NorthAmerica.pdf - LMR North America April 2026conf 55%
- 2026-12-31pendingManhattan trophy condo prices stagnate or decline in 2026How: Miller Samuel / Douglas Elliman Q4 2026 report shows Manhattan luxury (top decile) median price flat or down YoYSource: https://cooperatornews.com/article/snapshot-hottest-real-estate-markets-of-2026 - NYC ranks #21; sunbelt and tier-2 outperformingconf 55%
- 2027-01-01 → 2028-06-30pendingSun Belt secondary luxury markets (Nashville, Salt Lake City, San Diego) maintain stable to rising prices through 2027How: Coldwell Banker Global Luxury report 2027/28 confirms Sun Belt tier-2 markets show stable-to-rising appreciation, contrasting with gateway citiesSource: https://blog.coldwellbanker.com/the-luxury-market-isnt-just-resilient-its-becoming-a-legacy-asset/ - tier-2 Sun Belt resilientconf 55%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.088 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.076 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.075 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.060 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.050 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_057 First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Op — Dave Blundin | 34.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.029 |
| prereq | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 — Dave Blundin | 34.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.023 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.013 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.004 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.000 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 232_057 | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 242_023 | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Macro/Economy | — |
Linked documents (7)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.613 | manifold | Will Dan complain about the cost of NYC unprompted? | 69% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-16 |
| 0.598 | manifold | Will New York City temperature go up in the next 24h? | 64% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.577 | polymarket | Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? | 94% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-28 |
| 0.568 | polymarket | Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? | 12% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-28 |
| 0.567 | polymarket | Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 67m and 73m? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-28 |
| 0.562 | polymarket | Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m? | 40% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-05 |
| 0.559 | polymarket | Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m? | 0% | mentions | pending | 2026-04-09 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmtvGKuRE64",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "And then there's the the followup here is don't buy a very expensive downtown New York $20 million rooftop apartment. Instead, buy some really, really nice piece of real estate that's a little distant, you know, a little hard to get to, um, but absolutely spectacular. That's what's going to go up in value, not the not the inner city.",
"verbatim": "don't buy a very expensive downtown New York $20 million rooftop apartment. Instead, buy some really, really nice piece of real estate that's a little distant, you know, a little hard to get to, um, but absolutely spectacular. That's what's going to go up in value, not the not the inner city.",
"conv_cues": "going to go up",
"direction": "MIXED",
"timeframe": "Unspecified future",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
"status": "hit",
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"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_015",
"expected_date": "2026-06-25",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Sotheby's 2026 Luxury Outlook flags rural / destination luxury as outperformer",
"source": "https://worldluxurychamber.com/2026-luxury-outlook-sothebys-international-realty-wlcc/ - 2026 Luxury Outlook published",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": null,
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"source_url": "https://worldluxurychamber.com/2026-luxury-outlook-sothebys-international-realty-wlcc/",
"expected_date": "2026-06-30",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Sotheby's 2026 Luxury Outlook (or equivalent CB / Knight Frank report) lists destination/rural luxury markets in top growth tier"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "PwC ULI 2026 Emerging Trends ranks tier-2 / destination markets above gateway cities",
"source": "https://americas.uli.org/pwc-uli-report-reveals-2026-real-state-trends/ - 2026 Real Estate Trends transforming where we live/work/invest",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.65,
"source_url": "https://americas.uli.org/pwc-uli-report-reveals-2026-real-state-trends/",
"expected_date": "2026-06-30",
"r
... (truncated)