Cost curves will start collapsing industries before the technology itself does.

Cost curves will start collapsing industries before the technology itself does. | cost curves are now going to start collapsing industries before the technology does, right? That's like really uh quite something.

cost curves are now going to start collapsing industries before the technology does, right? That's like really uh quite something.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "cost curves are now going to start collapsing industries before the technology does, right? That's like really uh quite something.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "cost curves are now going to start collapsing industries before the technology does, right? That's like really uh quite something.",
  "conv_cues": "going to start",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "near future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Amazon eliminates 14K corporate roles citing AI-enabled leaner structure",
      "notes": "HIT — Amazon 14K corporate cut announced 2025.",
      "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/31/investors-predict-ai-is-coming-for-labor-in-2026/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/31/investors-predict-ai-is-coming-for-labor-in-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-10-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Amazon announces >=10K corporate role eliminations explicitly citing AI rationale"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "55K AI-attributed layoffs in 2025 (Workday, Amazon, Salesforce et al)",
      "notes": "HIT — 55K explicit AI layoffs of 1.17M total cuts in 2025.",
      "source": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/31/investors-predict-ai-is-coming-for-labor-in-2026/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/31/investors-predict-ai-is-coming-for-labor-in-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-01-31",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-31",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Challenger Gray report confirms >=50K layoffs in 2025 explicitly cite AI as cause"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "32K tech-firm job losses in first 2 months of 2026",
      "source": "https://www.findarticles.com/investors-say-ai-job-losses-are-coming-in-2026/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://www.findarticles.com/investors-say-ai-job-losses-are-coming-in-2026/",
      "expected_date": "2026-02-28",
      "observed_date": "2026-02-28",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Challenger Gray or Layoffs.fyi confirms >=30K tech sector layoffs in Jan-Feb 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Co
... (truncated)