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235_008predictionAIAI-scaling

Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
42.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
miss
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-09-30
Edges in / out
12 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. | I think my guess is anthropic and open AI and all of the other bigs will be forced to release their own sort of firstparty open claw competitor sometime in the next couple months.

Watch events: Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO; OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures

Verbatim quote

From episode "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235"
I think my guess is anthropic and open AI and all of the other bigs will be forced to release their own sort of firstparty open claw competitor sometime in the next couple months.

Resolution evidence

Status: miss

Alex's 'next couple months' = May 2026 for Anthropic+OpenAI OpenClaw competitors. Anthropic released Computer Use in late 2024 and Claude Opus 4.7 with stronger agent use April 2026; OpenAI has Operator/Computer use. Arguably already shipped before May.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-292026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 42.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 3 overdue ⏱
  1. 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
  2. 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
  3. 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 42%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z42.4%-1.7pp
Network propagation: 44.1% → 42.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z44.1%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 46.5% → 44.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.5%-3.5pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
resolution_terminal2026-04-29T22:23:17Z0.0%-44.1pp
resolution_terminal miss outcome=0.0 pre_resolution=0.441
Raw metadata
{
  "source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
  "status": "miss",
  "bayesian_v2": false,
  "outcome_prob": 0,
  "evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
  "posterior_prob": 0,
  "delta_to_outcome": -0.44119,
  "inside_posterior": 0.44119,
  "validation_notes": "Alex's 'next couple months' = May 2026 for Anthropic+OpenAI OpenClaw competitors. Anthropic released Computer Use in late 2024 and Claude Opus 4.7 with stronger agent use April 2026; OpenAI has Operator/Computer use. Arguably already shipped before May.",
  "validation_status": "miss",
  "pre_resolution_prob": 0.44119,
  "resolution_evidence": "Alex's 'next couple months' = May 2026 for Anthropic+OpenAI OpenClaw competitors. Anthropic released Computer Use in late 2024 and Claude Opus 4.7 with stronger agent use April 2026; OpenAI has Operator/Computer use. Arguably already shipped before May.",
  "does_not_update_current_prob": true
}

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.500-0.082
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.5000.050-0.072
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.5000.050-0.072
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.500-0.059
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5000.050-0.040

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq247_023
AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does Dave Blundin
40.8%0.7200.050-0.080
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050-0.074
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050-0.062
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.048
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.035

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (12)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
correlateS_IPO_TRILLION_2027First $1T+ IPO in 2027ipo_trillion_plus
correlateS_AGI_FAST_2027AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09agi_general_capability
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq247_023AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyAI
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport

Validations (1)

Resolution events
Observed atStatusByNotes
2026-04-29missthesis_timeline_v1.0_importAlex's 'next couple months' = May 2026 for Anthropic+OpenAI OpenClaw competitors. Anthropic released Computer Use in late 2024 and Claude Opus 4.7 with stronger agent use April 2026; OpenAI has Operator/Computer use. Arguably already shipped before May.

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.785manifoldWill Anthropic and OpenAI IPO in the same month?11%mentionspending2026-06-05
0.773manifoldWhen will Anthropic or OpenAI offer a $1,000/month AI subscription?mentionspending2026-06-05
0.769manifoldWill OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?18%mentionspending2026-06-03
0.768manifoldWill Anthropic or OpenAI add a higher tier subscription >= 400$ in 2026?53%mentionspending2026-05-17
0.768manifoldWhat will OpenAI + Anthropic + xAI's combined revenue be by Dec 31, 2030?mentionspending2026-05-30
0.753manifoldWill Anthropic announce a consumer hardware product in 2026?13%mentionspending2026-05-08
0.751polymarketWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?80%mentionspending2025-10-10
0.749polymarketWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?99%mentionspending2026-03-20
0.748polymarketWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?100%mentionspending2026-04-13
0.742polymarketWill Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?93%mentionspending2026-04-01

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
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  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "I think my guess is anthropic and open AI and all of the other bigs will be forced to release their own sort of firstparty open claw competitor sometime in the next couple months.",
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      "source_id": "242_031",
      "expected_date": "2030-09-27",
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    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.",
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  "target_date": "2026-05-15",
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... (truncated)