Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source
Prediction text
Anthropic/OpenAI will be forced to release first-party OpenClaw competitor in next couple months. | I think my guess is anthropic and open AI and all of the other bigs will be forced to release their own sort of firstparty open claw competitor sometime in the next couple months.
Watch events: Anthropic ARR updates quarterly; potential Oct 2026 IPO; OpenAI next funding round; IPO timing; revenue disclosures
Verbatim quote
I think my guess is anthropic and open AI and all of the other bigs will be forced to release their own sort of firstparty open claw competitor sometime in the next couple months.
Resolution evidence
Alex's 'next couple months' = May 2026 for Anthropic+OpenAI OpenClaw competitors. Anthropic released Computer Use in late 2024 and Claude Opus 4.7 with stronger agent use April 2026; OpenAI has Operator/Computer use. Arguably already shipped before May.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-01-30overdueQ1 window check-in (25%)
- 2026-03-01overdueQ2 window check-in (50%)
- 2026-03-30overdueQ3 window check-in (75%)
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
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"source": "backfill_resolution_history.py",
"status": "miss",
"bayesian_v2": false,
"outcome_prob": 0,
"evidence_kind": "resolution_terminal",
"posterior_prob": 0,
"delta_to_outcome": -0.44119,
"inside_posterior": 0.44119,
"validation_notes": "Alex's 'next couple months' = May 2026 for Anthropic+OpenAI OpenClaw competitors. Anthropic released Computer Use in late 2024 and Claude Opus 4.7 with stronger agent use April 2026; OpenAI has Operator/Computer use. Arguably already shipped before May.",
"validation_status": "miss",
"pre_resolution_prob": 0.44119,
"resolution_evidence": "Alex's 'next couple months' = May 2026 for Anthropic+OpenAI OpenClaw competitors. Anthropic released Computer Use in late 2024 and Claude Opus 4.7 with stronger agent use April 2026; OpenAI has Operator/Computer use. Arguably already shipped before May.",
"does_not_update_current_prob": true
}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | -0.082 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.072 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.072 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | -0.059 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.040 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 247_023 AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does — Dave Blundin | 40.8% | 0.720 | 0.050 | -0.080 |
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.074 |
| prereq | 242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.062 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.048 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.035 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (12)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| correlate | S_IPO_TRILLION_2027 | First $1T+ IPO in 2027 | ipo_trillion_plus | — |
| correlate | S_AGI_FAST_2027 | AGI fast: drop-in remote worker by 2027-09 | agi_general_capability | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 247_023 | AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminently | AI | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
Validations (1)
| Observed at | Status | By | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-29 | miss | thesis_timeline_v1.0_import | Alex's 'next couple months' = May 2026 for Anthropic+OpenAI OpenClaw competitors. Anthropic released Computer Use in late 2024 and Claude Opus 4.7 with stronger agent use April 2026; OpenAI has Operator/Computer use. Arguably already shipped before May. |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
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... (truncated)