Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right

Quantum not a risk to Bitcoin; Saylor is 100% right | Quantum is not a threat at all. It's so easy to increase the encryption standard...so it's it's not a risk at all as far I think Mike is 100% right.

Quantum is not a threat at all. It's so easy to increase the encryption standard...so it's it's not a risk at all as far I think Mike is 100% right.

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Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ak26W2YNRY",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Quantum is not a threat at all...it's not a risk at all",
  "verbatim": "Quantum is not a threat at all. It's so easy to increase the encryption standard...so it's it's not a risk at all as far I think Mike is 100% right.",
  "conv_cues": "not a risk at all; 100% right",
  "direction": "NOT_HAPPEN",
  "timeframe": "Future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "NIST PQC standards (ML-KEM, ML-DSA, SLH-DSA) finalized for migration use",
      "notes": "HIT — drop-in PQC standards available. Validates Blundin's 'easy to increase encryption standard'.",
      "source": "https://www.nist.gov/pqc",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.nist.gov/pqc",
      "expected_date": "2024-08-13",
      "observed_date": "2024-08-13",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "NIST publishes FIPS 203/204/205 finalizing ML-KEM, ML-DSA, SLH-DSA post-quantum standards"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Bitcoin BIP-360 mainnet migration tools launched Q2 2026",
      "source": "https://www.gopher.security/news/bitcoin-network-prepares-for-2026-quantum-threat-landscape-amid-rising-post-quantum-cryptography-migration-standards",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.65,
      "source_url": "https://www.gopher.security/news/bitcoin-network-prepares-for-2026-quantum-threat-landscape-amid-rising-post-quantum-cryptography-migration-standards",
      "expected_date": "2026-07-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "BTQ Technologies releases BIP-360 mainnet-ready migration tooling (P2MR upgrade implementation) for Bitcoin"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Cryptographically-relevant quantum computer (CRQC) probability remains <50% pre-2030",
      "notes": "Current expert surveys: ~33% put 50%+ probability at 2030-2035 window. Pre-2030 majority view says no.",
      "source": "Global Risk Institute Quantum Threat Timeline annual report, Mosca survey",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.75,
      "expected_date": "2028-03-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2030-01-01",
        "from": "2026-05-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Annual quantum-expert survey (Mosca, Global Risk Institute) shows <50% likelihood of CRQC capable of breaking Bitcoin's ECDSA before 2030"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_post_event",
      "label": "Bitcoin/major-crypto network successfully completes PQC migration (long-horizon)",
      "notes": "Coinbase advisor consensus: 5-10yr migration. Both Saylor and Blundin's 'no risk' thesis is sustainable IF PQC ships before CRQC arrives.",
      "source": "Bitcoin Core release notes, Ethereum core devs roadmap",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "expected_date": "2030-07-02",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2032-12-31",
        "from": "2028-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Bitcoin or Ethereum mainnet activates PQC signature scheme for new addresses with ≥10% network hashrate / stake support"
    }
  ],
  "repeat_eps": 1,
  "untimeable": true,
  "affiliation": "Moonshots",
  "attribution": "FIRST_PERSON",
  "episode_num": 247,
  "granularity": "VAGUE",
  "episode_date": "2026-04-14",
  "parse_method": "UNMAPPABLE",
  "domain_bucket": "Markets",
  "e
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