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240_019predictionAIAI-scaling

Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
45.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2027-10-31
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year | and it probably will it'll be soon like in the next year.

Verbatim quote

From episode "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse"
and it probably will it'll be soon like in the next year.

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 45.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 6 fired ✓ · 3 pending
  1. 2026-03-15hitMamba-3 paper publication (improved sequence modeling using SSM principles)
    How: Mamba-3 academic paper or preprint published, confirming continued post-transformer SSM architecture progress
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 80%
  2. 2026-04-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFrontier lab releases hybrid post-transformer model (Mamba/JEPA/diffusion or novel architecture) at production scale
    How: OpenAI / Anthropic / Google / Meta / xAI ships production model that explicitly is non-pure-transformer (hybrid SSM, JEPA, diffusion-LM, or novel) and competitive with prior SOTA
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
  3. 2026-02-15hitSam Altman / frontier-lab CEO public statement: post-transformer architecture identified or imminent
    How: Public statement by Altman / Hassabis / Amodei / LeCun explicitly naming a post-transformer architecture path being pursued
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2027-09-30pendingNovel architecture exceeds transformer on widely-followed benchmark (MMLU, GPQA, SWE-Bench, ARC-AGI) at matched compute
    How: Peer-reviewed or leaderboard result: a non-transformer or substantively novel architecture matches or beats transformer SOTA at equal training compute on benchmark of record
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  5. 2027-01-01 → 2027-10-31pendingIndustry shift signal: ≥ 2 of top-5 frontier labs deploy non-pure-transformer flagship
    How: Two or more of OpenAI/Anthropic/Google DeepMind/Meta/xAI ship a flagship LLM that is hybrid or non-transformer
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 35%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 45%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z45.4%-1.1pp
Network propagation: 46.5% → 45.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z46.5%-2.0pp
Network propagation: 48.5% → 46.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z48.5%-2.6pp
Network propagation: 51.2% → 48.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z51.2%-3.8pp
Network propagation: 55.0% → 51.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.550-0.079
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.5500.050-0.069
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.5500.050-0.068
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.550-0.054
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.046

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq248_033
Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compaDave Blundin
36.7%0.6000.050-0.071
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050-0.045
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050-0.042
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.028
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.014

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq248_033Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.AI

Linked documents (6)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.644github_releasehuggingface/transformers v5.0.0mentionspending2026-01-26
0.632github_releasehuggingface/transformers v5.0.0rc0mentionspending2025-12-01
0.610arxivWeight-Decay Turns Transformer Loss Landscapes Villani: Functional-Analytic Foundations for Optimization and Generalizationmentionspending2026-05-07
0.600github_releasepytorch/pytorch v2.0.0mentionspending2023-03-15
0.572manifoldWill my resin casted pepperoni mold within one year from today?81%mentionspending2026-05-26
0.566manifoldWill there be a complete, professional looking comic book adaptation of HPMOR, before 2029?67%mentionspending2026-06-04

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "and it probably will it'll be soon like in the next year. Yeah. and it probably won't map well to the current Nvidia architecture.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "and it probably will it'll be soon like in the next year.",
  "conv_cues": "probably",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Within the next year",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Mamba-3 paper publication (improved sequence modeling using SSM principles)",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "source_url": "https://medium.com/@wanimohit1/mamba-the-linear-time-alternative-to-transformers-thats-changing-llm-architecture-6470d0ad6ead",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-01",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-06-30",
        "from": "2026-01-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "Mamba-3 academic paper or preprint published, confirming continued post-transformer SSM architecture progress"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier lab releases hybrid post-transformer model (Mamba/JEPA/diffusion or novel architecture) at production scale",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.55,
      "source_url": "https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-last-architecture-designed-by-hand/",
      "expected_date": "2026-08-16",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI / Anthropic / Google / Meta / xAI ships production model that explicitly is non-pure-transformer (hybrid SSM, JEPA, diffusion-LM, or novel) and competitive with prior SOTA"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Sam Altman / frontier-lab CEO pu
... (truncated)