Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#240 "NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse" · source
Prediction text
Post-transformer architecture will come out of left field within a year | and it probably will it'll be soon like in the next year.
Verbatim quote
and it probably will it'll be soon like in the next year.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-03-15hitMamba-3 paper publication (improved sequence modeling using SSM principles)How: Mamba-3 academic paper or preprint published, confirming continued post-transformer SSM architecture progressSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 80%
- 2026-04-01 → 2026-12-31pendingFrontier lab releases hybrid post-transformer model (Mamba/JEPA/diffusion or novel architecture) at production scaleHow: OpenAI / Anthropic / Google / Meta / xAI ships production model that explicitly is non-pure-transformer (hybrid SSM, JEPA, diffusion-LM, or novel) and competitive with prior SOTASource: deep_research_enrichedconf 55%
- 2026-02-15hitSam Altman / frontier-lab CEO public statement: post-transformer architecture identified or imminentHow: Public statement by Altman / Hassabis / Amodei / LeCun explicitly naming a post-transformer architecture path being pursuedSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 85%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-09-30pendingNovel architecture exceeds transformer on widely-followed benchmark (MMLU, GPQA, SWE-Bench, ARC-AGI) at matched computeHow: Peer-reviewed or leaderboard result: a non-transformer or substantively novel architecture matches or beats transformer SOTA at equal training compute on benchmark of recordSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
- 2027-01-01 → 2027-10-31pendingIndustry shift signal: ≥ 2 of top-5 frontier labs deploy non-pure-transformer flagshipHow: Two or more of OpenAI/Anthropic/Google DeepMind/Meta/xAI ship a flagship LLM that is hybrid or non-transformerSource: deep_research_enrichedconf 35%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | -0.079 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.069 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.550 | 0.050 | -0.068 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | -0.054 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.550 | +0.046 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 248_033 Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compa — Dave Blundin | 36.7% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.071 |
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.045 |
| prereq | 242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.042 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.028 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.014 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 248_033 | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. | AI | — |
Linked documents (6)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.644 | github_release | huggingface/transformers v5.0.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-01-26 |
| 0.632 | github_release | huggingface/transformers v5.0.0rc0 | — | mentions | pending | 2025-12-01 |
| 0.610 | arxiv | Weight-Decay Turns Transformer Loss Landscapes Villani: Functional-Analytic Foundations for Optimization and Generalization | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-07 |
| 0.600 | github_release | pytorch/pytorch v2.0.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2023-03-15 |
| 0.572 | manifold | Will my resin casted pepperoni mold within one year from today? | 81% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-26 |
| 0.566 | manifold | Will there be a complete, professional looking comic book adaptation of HPMOR, before 2029? | 67% | mentions | pending | 2026-06-04 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "and it probably will it'll be soon like in the next year. Yeah. and it probably won't map well to the current Nvidia architecture.",
"to_year": 2027,
"verbatim": "and it probably will it'll be soon like in the next year.",
"conv_cues": "probably",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "Within the next year",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Mamba-3 paper publication (improved sequence modeling using SSM principles)",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.8,
"source_url": "https://medium.com/@wanimohit1/mamba-the-linear-time-alternative-to-transformers-thats-changing-llm-architecture-6470d0ad6ead",
"expected_date": "2026-04-01",
"observed_date": "2026-03-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-06-30",
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},
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"status": "hit",
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"source_id": "SEM_027",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
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},
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"status": "hit",
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"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
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"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_015",
"expected_date": "2026-06-25",
"observed_date": null
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Frontier lab releases hybrid post-transformer model (Mamba/JEPA/diffusion or novel architecture) at production scale",
"source": "deep_research_enriched",
"status": "pending",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.55,
"source_url": "https://philippdubach.com/posts/the-last-architecture-designed-by-hand/",
"expected_date": "2026-08-16",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2026-12-31",
"from": "2026-04-01"
},
"measurement_criterion": "OpenAI / Anthropic / Google / Meta / xAI ships production model that explicitly is non-pure-transformer (hybrid SSM, JEPA, diffusion-LM, or novel) and competitive with prior SOTA"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Sam Altman / frontier-lab CEO pu
... (truncated)