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232_060predictionAIAI-scaling

We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#232 "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232" · source

Prior probability
55.0%
Current probability
44.3%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
5/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-01-01 – 2026-10-31
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto. | We're there. We're we're so there that this scenario of self-replicating AIS goes into most of the the cyber red teaming scenarios that frontier models are purportedly being tested against. And yet here we are. We have autonomous AI agents that are using crypto ... using crypto to to purchase cloud credits for their own offspring to be hosted and have access to the same underlying foundation model APIs that they themselves have access to. We're there like we we caught up with the sci-fi future.

Watch events: Waymo 1M rides/wk (end-2026); Tesla Robotaxi scaling; NHTSA AV rules

Verbatim quote

From episode "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232"
We're there. We're we're so there that this scenario of self-replicating AIS goes into most of the the cyber red teaming scenarios that frontier models are purportedly being tested against. And yet here we are. We have autonomous AI agents that are using crypto ... using crypto to to purchase cloud credits for their own offspring to be hosted and have access to the same underlying foundation model APIs that they themselves have access to. We're there like we we caught up with the sci-fi future.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class: regulatory_freeze_window

Linked via embedding similarity 0.565

Major-country regulatory pause/moratorium on AI capability research lasting >6 months

Base rate
5.0%
0/4 historical
Inside weight
Outside weight
no pull
inside 44.3% → blend 44.3% 0.0pp)

Tetlock-style outside view: at TRF=1 (just predicted), outside view dominates (w_in=0.3). At TRF=0 (deadline), inside view dominates (w_in=1.0). The blend regularizes overconfident inside views toward the historical base rate.

Probability over time

7 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 55%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-17
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 44.3%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 1 pending

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 44%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-17T02:00:01Z44.3%+1.6pp
Network propagation: 42.7% → 44.3%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00689 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e607fa96
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z42.7%+3.3pp
Network propagation: 39.4% → 42.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z39.4%+6.3pp
Network propagation: 33.0% → 39.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z33.0%+11.2pp
Network propagation: 21.8% → 33.0%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
legacy v12026-04-30T16:13:50Z21.8%-11.6pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.218 w_in=0.53 regulatory_freeze_window
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z33.4%+11.6pp
Network propagation: 21.7% → 33.4%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef
legacy v12026-04-30T01:56:50Z21.7%-33.3pp
reference_class_assigned bayesian_v2 inside=0.550 blend=0.217 w_in=0.53 regulatory_freeze_window

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK06
China-Taiwan Military Conflict
8.0%0.0500.550+0.067
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.550+0.057
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.5500.050-0.057
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.5500.050-0.056
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.550+0.047

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq247_023
AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does Dave Blundin
40.8%0.7200.050-0.056
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050-0.042
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050-0.041
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.026
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.012

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
killerTK06China-Taiwan Military Conflict

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq247_023AI will be able to do everything a white collar worker does imminentlyAI
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
  "mode": "THESIS",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "That's right. We're there. We're we're so there that this scenario of self-replicating AIS goes into most of the the cyber red teaming scenarios that frontier models are purportedly being tested against. And yet here we are. We have autonomous AI agents that are using crypto. Come back to that in a second. using crypto hem using crypto to to purchase cloud credits for their own offspring to be hosted",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "We're there. We're we're so there that this scenario of self-replicating AIS goes into most of the the cyber red teaming scenarios that frontier models are purportedly being tested against. And yet here we are. We have autonomous AI agents that are using crypto ... using crypto to to purchase cloud credits for their own offspring to be hosted and have access to the same underlying foundation model APIs that they themselves have access to. We're there like we we caught up with the sci-fi future.",
  "conv_cues": "We're there; caught up with the sci-fi future",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "now",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -1,
      "source_id": "SEM_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "event",
      "label": "We'll see exponential growth of AI multis (agents) autonomously self-replicating, using crypto.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 1,
      "ordinal": 0,
      "source_id": "232_060",
      "expected_date": "2026-09-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 1,
      "source_id": "232_055",
      "expected_date": "2028-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": 2,
      "source_id": "242_031",
      "expected_date": "2030-09-27",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "cascade",
      "label": "Peter's 14-year-old son Milan w
... (truncated)