GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source
Prediction text
GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems. | The P paper proposes replacing GDP with something called the abundance capability index which is measuring a nation's capacity to solve problems rather than how much money changes hands.
Verbatim quote
The P paper proposes replacing GDP with something called the abundance capability index which is measuring a nation's capacity to solve problems rather than how much money changes hands.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-04-01 → 2026-12-31pendingUN High-Level Expert Group Beyond-GDP final indicator dashboard publishedHow: United Nations Statistical Commission or HLEG releases the Beyond-GDP indicator dashboard with ~30 indicators (per March 2026 briefing schedule) — confirmed via UN.org publication or UNGA agenda itemSource: llm_enrichedconf 70%
- 2026-09-01 → 2027-09-30pendingUN General Assembly resolution endorsing beyond-GDP frameworkHow: UNGA passes resolution endorsing or adopting the HLEG Beyond-GDP recommendations (per the September 2026 expected action) — confirmed via UN voting recordSource: llm_enrichedconf 60%
- 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingPeer-reviewed paper proposes 'Abundance Capability Index' or named-equivalentHow: Working paper, preprint, or peer-reviewed publication explicitly proposing an 'Abundance Capability Index' or a named composite measuring 'capacity to solve problems' as GDP alternative — search Google Scholar / SSRN / NBERSource: llm_enrichedconf 40%
- 2026-09-01 → 2029-12-31pendingFirst G7 or G20 member adopts beyond-GDP composite as official statistic alongside GDPHow: National statistics agency (ONS UK, Statistics Canada, INSEE France, BEA US, etc.) formally publishes a beyond-GDP composite (well-being, sustainability, capability) as a regularly-released national statistic — not just a one-off studySource: llm_enrichedconf 50%
- 2028-01-01 → 2031-12-31pendingMajor investment bank or rating agency publishes ACI-style sovereign rating supplementHow: Moody's, S&P, Fitch, BlackRock, MSCI, or comparable financial institution publishes a sovereign analysis supplement using an abundance-capability or solve-capacity composite alongside conventional GDP-based metrics — confirmed via published research noteSource: llm_enrichedconf 25%
- 2030-01-01 → 2035-12-31pendingMultiple national constitutions or budget laws reference beyond-GDP measureHow: At least 3 sovereign nations enshrine in budget law, constitutional amendment, or sovereign planning act a named beyond-GDP composite as official policy benchmark — verifiable via parliamentary recordsSource: llm_enrichedconf 15%
What if this resolves?
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Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.068 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.067 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | -0.056 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.450 | 0.050 | -0.039 |
| killer | TK04 Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | 25.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | -0.036 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_057 First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Op — Dave Blundin | 34.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.090 |
| prereq | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 — Dave Blundin | 34.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.084 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.080 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.070 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.066 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK04 | Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 232_057 | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 242_023 | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Macro/Economy | — |
Linked documents (5)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.613 | github_release | facebookresearch/balance 0.20.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-26 |
| 0.598 | github_release | facebookresearch/balance 0.18.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2026-03-24 |
| 0.583 | github_release | facebookresearch/balance 0.4.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2023-02-08 |
| 0.580 | github_release | facebookresearch/balance 0.12.1 | — | mentions | pending | 2025-11-03 |
| 0.550 | github_release | facebookresearch/balance 0.6.0 | — | mentions | pending | 2023-04-05 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
"mode": "ASPIRATION",
"role": "Host",
"caveats": "A proposal rather than certain forecast",
"context": "the paper proposes replacing GDP with something called the abundance capability index which is measuring a nation's capacity to solve problems rather than how much money changes hands.",
"to_year": 2035,
"verbatim": "The P paper proposes replacing GDP with something called the abundance capability index which is measuring a nation's capacity to solve problems rather than how much money changes hands.",
"conv_cues": "proposes",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "unspecified",
"conv_level": "MEDIUM",
"milestones": [
{
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},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
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"label": "UN General Assembly resolution endorsing beyond-GDP framework",
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"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.6,
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"expected_date_range": {
"to": "2027-09-30",
"from": "2026-09-01"
},
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},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Peer-reviewed paper proposes 'Abundance Capability Index' or named-equivalent",
"source": "llm
... (truncated)