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230_045predictionMacro/EconomyAI-scaling

GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#230 "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
38.6%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2030-06-01 – 2030-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

GDP will be replaced by an 'Abundance Capability Index' measuring capacity to solve problems. | The P paper proposes replacing GDP with something called the abundance capability index which is measuring a nation's capacity to solve problems rather than how much money changes hands.

Verbatim quote

From episode "AI CEOs Come Online: Sam Altman's Replacement Plan, Job Loss & 'Solve Everything' Launches |EP #230"
The P paper proposes replacing GDP with something called the abundance capability index which is measuring a nation's capacity to solve problems rather than how much money changes hands.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

3 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-04-302026-05-03
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 38.6%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 4 fired ✓ · 6 pending
  1. 2026-04-01 → 2026-12-31pendingUN High-Level Expert Group Beyond-GDP final indicator dashboard published
    How: United Nations Statistical Commission or HLEG releases the Beyond-GDP indicator dashboard with ~30 indicators (per March 2026 briefing schedule) — confirmed via UN.org publication or UNGA agenda item
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 70%
  2. 2026-09-01 → 2027-09-30pendingUN General Assembly resolution endorsing beyond-GDP framework
    How: UNGA passes resolution endorsing or adopting the HLEG Beyond-GDP recommendations (per the September 2026 expected action) — confirmed via UN voting record
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 60%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2028-12-31pendingPeer-reviewed paper proposes 'Abundance Capability Index' or named-equivalent
    How: Working paper, preprint, or peer-reviewed publication explicitly proposing an 'Abundance Capability Index' or a named composite measuring 'capacity to solve problems' as GDP alternative — search Google Scholar / SSRN / NBER
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 40%
  4. 2026-09-01 → 2029-12-31pendingFirst G7 or G20 member adopts beyond-GDP composite as official statistic alongside GDP
    How: National statistics agency (ONS UK, Statistics Canada, INSEE France, BEA US, etc.) formally publishes a beyond-GDP composite (well-being, sustainability, capability) as a regularly-released national statistic — not just a one-off study
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 50%
  5. 2028-01-01 → 2031-12-31pendingMajor investment bank or rating agency publishes ACI-style sovereign rating supplement
    How: Moody's, S&P, Fitch, BlackRock, MSCI, or comparable financial institution publishes a sovereign analysis supplement using an abundance-capability or solve-capacity composite alongside conventional GDP-based metrics — confirmed via published research note
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 25%
  6. 2030-01-01 → 2035-12-31pendingMultiple national constitutions or budget laws reference beyond-GDP measure
    How: At least 3 sovereign nations enshrine in budget law, constitutional amendment, or sovereign planning act a named beyond-GDP composite as official policy benchmark — verifiable via parliamentary records
    Source: llm_enrichedconf 15%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 39%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z38.6%-1.5pp
Network propagation: 40.1% → 38.6%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.1%-1.9pp
Network propagation: 42.1% → 40.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z42.1%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 42.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.4500.050-0.068
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.4500.050-0.067
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.450-0.056
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.4500.050-0.039
killerTK04
Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
25.0%0.0500.450-0.036

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_057
First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by OpDave Blundin
34.8%0.6000.050-0.090
prereq242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Dave Blundin
34.2%0.6000.050-0.084
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.080
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.070
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050-0.066

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK04Macro Recession 2026-27 (Structural Deleveraging)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq232_057First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Robotics
prereq242_023World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Macro/Economy

Linked documents (5)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.613github_releasefacebookresearch/balance 0.20.0mentionspending2026-04-26
0.598github_releasefacebookresearch/balance 0.18.0mentionspending2026-03-24
0.583github_releasefacebookresearch/balance 0.4.0mentionspending2023-02-08
0.580github_releasefacebookresearch/balance 0.12.1mentionspending2025-11-03
0.550github_releasefacebookresearch/balance 0.6.0mentionspending2023-04-05

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6P0uTDGDr-I",
  "mode": "ASPIRATION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "A proposal rather than certain forecast",
  "context": "the paper proposes replacing GDP with something called the abundance capability index which is measuring a nation's capacity to solve problems rather than how much money changes hands.",
  "to_year": 2035,
  "verbatim": "The P paper proposes replacing GDP with something called the abundance capability index which is measuring a nation's capacity to solve problems rather than how much money changes hands.",
  "conv_cues": "proposes",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "unspecified",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -10,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_015",
      "expected_date": "2026-06-25",
      "observed_date": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "UN High-Level Expert Group Beyond-GDP final indicator dashboard published",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "expected_date": "2026-08-16",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-12-31",
        "from": "2026-04-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "United Nations Statistical Commission or HLEG releases the Beyond-GDP indicator dashboard with ~30 indicators (per March 2026 briefing schedule) — confirmed via UN.org publication or UNGA agenda item"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "UN General Assembly resolution endorsing beyond-GDP framework",
      "source": "llm_enriched",
      "status": "pending",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "expected_date": "2027-03-17",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2027-09-30",
        "from": "2026-09-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "UNGA passes resolution endorsing or adopting the HLEG Beyond-GDP recommendations (per the September 2026 expected action) — confirmed via UN voting record"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Peer-reviewed paper proposes 'Abundance Capability Index' or named-equivalent",
      "source": "llm
... (truncated)