← Cockpit
248_030predictionGeopoliticsAI-scaling

FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times.

Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source

Prior probability
60.0%
Current probability
49.5%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
A
Resolution
pending
Window
2026-06-01 – 2026-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
38

Prediction text

FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. | So the FDA will have to be the first to get out of the way. And then that'll set the the tone for the rest of the government agencies that are going to have to, you know, get out of not get out of the way, but accelerate their rate of regulation by thousands of times to keep up with all the AI innovation.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248"
So the FDA will have to be the first to get out of the way. And then that'll set the the tone for the rest of the government agencies that are going to have to, you know, get out of not get out of the way, but accelerate their rate of regulation by thousands of times to keep up with all the AI innovation.

Resolution evidence

Status: pending

FDA accelerating 1000x regulation — aspirational. Some 2025 reforms but not 1000x.

Predictor: Dave Blundin

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.821
Brier
0.0491
excellent
Hits / Misses
3 / 2
of 9 resolved
Hit rate
33.3%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 60%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 49.5%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 7 fired ✓
  1. 2025-12-01hitFDA deploys agentic AI to all employees
    How: FDA officially deploys agentic AI capabilities to all agency staff
    Source: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12598624/conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — Agentic AI deployment to all FDA employees confirmed Dec 2025.
  2. 2026-04-15hitFDA launches real-time AI-driven clinical trial pilot
    How: FDA Commissioner Makary announces first-ever real-time clinical trial monitoring via AI/cloud, projecting 20-40% time reduction
    Source: https://www.nextgov.com/artificial-intelligence/2026/04/fda-pilot-real-time-clinical-drug-trials-cloud-ai/413200/conf 99%
    Notes: HIT — FDA pilot announced 2026-04, directly targets faster approvals via AI.
  3. 2026-04-15hitFDA consolidates 40 systems into single platform; saves $120M/yr
    How: FDA reports consolidation of 40 application intake systems into one and projected $120M annual savings
    Source: https://www.govexec.com/technology/2026/04/fda-pilot-real-time-clinical-drug-trials-cloud-ai/413199/conf 95%
    Notes: HIT — System consolidation publicly announced.
  4. 2026-04-01 → 2026-09-30pendingFDA finalizes AI-in-drug-development guidance (Q2 2026)
    How: FDA publishes final guidance on AI use in drug regulatory decision-making (after Jan 2025 draft)
    Source: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1155/joch/5202999conf 85%
    Notes: Final guidance expected Q2 2026 per industry trackers.
  5. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingOther federal agency follows FDA accelerated regulatory pattern
    How: USDA, NRC, EPA, FCC, or comparable agency announces AI-accelerated regulatory framework citing FDA pilot as model
    Source: Agency rulemaking trackersconf 55%
    Notes: Cascade — validates Blundin's broader claim that FDA is template for rest of government.

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 50%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z49.5%-1.2pp
Network propagation: 50.7% → 49.5%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z50.7%-2.2pp
Network propagation: 52.9% → 50.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z52.9%-2.9pp
Network propagation: 55.8% → 52.9%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z55.8%-4.2pp
Network propagation: 60.0% → 55.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.600-0.088
prereqSEM_015
Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directJensen Huang
66.3%0.6000.050-0.076
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.6000.050-0.075
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.600-0.060
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.600+0.050

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq232_057
First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by OpDave Blundin
34.8%0.6000.050-0.029
prereq242_023
World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Dave Blundin
34.2%0.6000.050-0.023
prereq246_016
Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203Peter Diamandis
35.6%0.6500.050-0.013
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.004
prereq240_036
TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electrPeter Diamandis
34.3%0.6500.050+0.000

Ticker exposure

38 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

NBISNVDAPLABEQIXAPLDASMIYASMLWULFIRENALABMUCRWVAMZNMSFTSTXSFTBYDELLAMTORCLGOOGLAAPLIRMLNVGYMETA

Adverse (6)

IBMACNCHGGGENLRNWNS

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
prereqSEM_015Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans.Policy/Semis
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq246_016Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034.Space
prereq240_036TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040Energy
prereq232_057First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration.Robotics
prereq242_023World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036Macro/Economy

Expected milestones (1)

From Sheet 17 Monitoring Triggers
Expected byDescriptionStatus
2031-03-31[Geopolitics 2031-03] AI next funding round; IPO timing; reve [248_030] FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government mus [231_011] The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war.pending

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.596fdaFDA NDA218197: TRUQAP (CAPIVASERTIB) — ASTRAZENECAmentionspending2026-05-27
0.593fdaFDA NDA217379: NDA217379 ((unspecified)) — FLEX PHARMA, LLCmentionspending2026-05-29
0.588fdaFDA ANDA220421: ANDA220421 ((unspecified)) — HETERO LABS LIMITED, VEMAGALmentionspending2026-05-01
0.587fdaFDA NDA207947: UPTRAVI (SELEXIPAG) — ACTELIONmentionspending2026-05-23
0.586fdaFDA ANDA211182: ANDA211182 ((unspecified)) — HETERO LABS LTD Vmentionspending2026-04-16
0.583fdaFDA BLA761070: FASENRA (BENRALIZUMAB) — ASTRAZENECA ABmentionspending2026-05-13
0.583fdaFDA NDA018569: FUROSEMIDE (FUROSEMIDE) — EPIC PHARMA LLCmentionspending2026-06-02
0.582fdaFDA ANDA077420: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — RISINGmentionspending2026-05-15
0.581fdaFDA ANDA220274: SODIUM ACETATE (SODIUM ACETATE) — EXTROVISmentionspending2026-04-17
0.580fdaFDA NDA214275: UPTRAVI (SELEXIPAG) — ACTELIONmentionspending2026-05-23

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "regulation speed x1000",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "the FDA will have to be the first to get out of the way... accelerate their rate of regulation by thousands of times to keep up with all the AI innovation.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "So the FDA will have to be the first to get out of the way. And then that'll set the the tone for the rest of the government agencies that are going to have to, you know, get out of not get out of the way, but accelerate their rate of regulation by thousands of times to keep up with all the AI innovation.",
  "conv_cues": "will have to",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "future",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "FDA deploys agentic AI to all employees",
      "notes": "HIT — Agentic AI deployment to all FDA employees confirmed Dec 2025.",
      "source": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12598624/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12598624/",
      "expected_date": "2025-12-01",
      "observed_date": "2025-12-01",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "FDA officially deploys agentic AI capabilities to all agency staff"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "FDA launches real-time AI-driven clinical trial pilot",
      "notes": "HIT — FDA pilot announced 2026-04, directly targets faster approvals via AI.",
      "source": "https://www.nextgov.com/artificial-intelligence/2026/04/fda-pilot-real-time-clinical-drug-trials-cloud-ai/413200/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -2,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://www.nextgov.com/artificial-intelligence/2026/04/fda-pilot-real-time-clinical-drug-trials-cloud-ai/413200/",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "FDA Commissioner Makary announces first-ever real-time clinical trial monitoring via AI/cloud, projecting 20-40% time reduction"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "FDA consolidates 40 systems into single platform; saves $120M/yr",
      "notes": "HIT — System consolidation publicly announced.",
      "source": "https://www.govexec.com/te
... (truncated)