FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times.
Predictor: Dave Blundin · ep#248 "Sam Altman's Attack, Amazon vs. Starlink, and What Opus 4.7 Actually Means | #248" · source
Prediction text
FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government must accelerate regulation speed thousands of times. | So the FDA will have to be the first to get out of the way. And then that'll set the the tone for the rest of the government agencies that are going to have to, you know, get out of not get out of the way, but accelerate their rate of regulation by thousands of times to keep up with all the AI innovation.
Verbatim quote
So the FDA will have to be the first to get out of the way. And then that'll set the the tone for the rest of the government agencies that are going to have to, you know, get out of not get out of the way, but accelerate their rate of regulation by thousands of times to keep up with all the AI innovation.
Resolution evidence
FDA accelerating 1000x regulation — aspirational. Some 2025 reforms but not 1000x.
Predictor: Dave Blundin
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Dave Blundin is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-12-01hitFDA deploys agentic AI to all employeesHow: FDA officially deploys agentic AI capabilities to all agency staffSource: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12598624/conf 99%Notes: HIT — Agentic AI deployment to all FDA employees confirmed Dec 2025.
- 2026-04-15hitFDA launches real-time AI-driven clinical trial pilotHow: FDA Commissioner Makary announces first-ever real-time clinical trial monitoring via AI/cloud, projecting 20-40% time reductionSource: https://www.nextgov.com/artificial-intelligence/2026/04/fda-pilot-real-time-clinical-drug-trials-cloud-ai/413200/conf 99%Notes: HIT — FDA pilot announced 2026-04, directly targets faster approvals via AI.
- 2026-04-15hitFDA consolidates 40 systems into single platform; saves $120M/yrHow: FDA reports consolidation of 40 application intake systems into one and projected $120M annual savingsSource: https://www.govexec.com/technology/2026/04/fda-pilot-real-time-clinical-drug-trials-cloud-ai/413199/conf 95%Notes: HIT — System consolidation publicly announced.
- 2026-04-01 → 2026-09-30pendingFDA finalizes AI-in-drug-development guidance (Q2 2026)How: FDA publishes final guidance on AI use in drug regulatory decision-making (after Jan 2025 draft)Source: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1155/joch/5202999conf 85%Notes: Final guidance expected Q2 2026 per industry trackers.
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingOther federal agency follows FDA accelerated regulatory patternHow: USDA, NRC, EPA, FCC, or comparable agency announces AI-accelerated regulatory framework citing FDA pilot as modelSource: Agency rulemaking trackersconf 55%Notes: Cascade — validates Blundin's broader claim that FDA is template for rest of government.
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.088 |
| prereq | SEM_015 Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue direct — Jensen Huang | 66.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.076 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.075 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | -0.060 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.600 | +0.050 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 232_057 First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Op — Dave Blundin | 34.8% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.029 |
| prereq | 242_023 World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 — Dave Blundin | 34.2% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.023 |
| prereq | 246_016 Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 203 — Peter Diamandis | 35.6% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.013 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.004 |
| prereq | 240_036 TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electr — Peter Diamandis | 34.3% | 0.650 | 0.050 | +0.000 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_015 | Nvidia agreed to remit 15% of China chip-sale revenue directly to US government in exchange for reversing specific AI chip export bans. | Policy/Semis | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 246_016 | Dragonfly nuclear-powered octicopter arrives at Titan in 2034. | Space | — |
| prereq | 240_036 | TEPCO's restarted reactor will support 20% of Japan's electric needs by 2040 | Energy | — |
| prereq | 232_057 | First person to arrive on moon/Mars will find bed made by Optimus robots; robots not astronauts lead exploration. | Robotics | — |
| prereq | 242_023 | World will have 10x more wealth around 2034-2036 | Macro/Economy | — |
Expected milestones (1)
| Expected by | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
| 2031-03-31 | [Geopolitics 2031-03] AI next funding round; IPO timing; reve [248_030] FDA will be first government agency forced to get out of the way; government mus [231_011] The country that trains its next generation on AI wins the entire talent war. | pending |
Linked documents (10)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.596 | fda | FDA NDA218197: TRUQAP (CAPIVASERTIB) — ASTRAZENECA | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-27 |
| 0.593 | fda | FDA NDA217379: NDA217379 ((unspecified)) — FLEX PHARMA, LLC | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-29 |
| 0.588 | fda | FDA ANDA220421: ANDA220421 ((unspecified)) — HETERO LABS LIMITED, VEMAGAL | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-01 |
| 0.587 | fda | FDA NDA207947: UPTRAVI (SELEXIPAG) — ACTELION | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-23 |
| 0.586 | fda | FDA ANDA211182: ANDA211182 ((unspecified)) — HETERO LABS LTD V | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-16 |
| 0.583 | fda | FDA BLA761070: FASENRA (BENRALIZUMAB) — ASTRAZENECA AB | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-13 |
| 0.583 | fda | FDA NDA018569: FUROSEMIDE (FUROSEMIDE) — EPIC PHARMA LLC | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-02 |
| 0.582 | fda | FDA ANDA077420: LAMOTRIGINE (LAMOTRIGINE) — RISING | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-15 |
| 0.581 | fda | FDA ANDA220274: SODIUM ACETATE (SODIUM ACETATE) — EXTROVIS | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-17 |
| 0.580 | fda | FDA NDA214275: UPTRAVI (SELEXIPAG) — ACTELION | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-23 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "regulation speed x1000",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LVvleNtllPk",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "the FDA will have to be the first to get out of the way... accelerate their rate of regulation by thousands of times to keep up with all the AI innovation.",
"to_year": 2026,
"verbatim": "So the FDA will have to be the first to get out of the way. And then that'll set the the tone for the rest of the government agencies that are going to have to, you know, get out of not get out of the way, but accelerate their rate of regulation by thousands of times to keep up with all the AI innovation.",
"conv_cues": "will have to",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "future",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "FDA deploys agentic AI to all employees",
"notes": "HIT — Agentic AI deployment to all FDA employees confirmed Dec 2025.",
"source": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12598624/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -7,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12598624/",
"expected_date": "2025-12-01",
"observed_date": "2025-12-01",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "FDA officially deploys agentic AI capabilities to all agency staff"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -6,
"source_id": "SEM_011",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_027",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_014",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -3,
"source_id": "SEM_012",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "FDA launches real-time AI-driven clinical trial pilot",
"notes": "HIT — FDA pilot announced 2026-04, directly targets faster approvals via AI.",
"source": "https://www.nextgov.com/artificial-intelligence/2026/04/fda-pilot-real-time-clinical-drug-trials-cloud-ai/413200/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -2,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.99,
"source_url": "https://www.nextgov.com/artificial-intelligence/2026/04/fda-pilot-real-time-clinical-drug-trials-cloud-ai/413200/",
"expected_date": "2026-04-30",
"observed_date": "2026-04-15",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "FDA Commissioner Makary announces first-ever real-time clinical trial monitoring via AI/cloud, projecting 20-40% time reduction"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "FDA consolidates 40 systems into single platform; saves $120M/yr",
"notes": "HIT — System consolidation publicly announced.",
"source": "https://www.govexec.com/te
... (truncated)