← Cockpit
232_044predictionAIAI-scaling

There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#232 "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232" · source

Prior probability
50.0%
Current probability
41.9%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
4/5
Signal quality
B
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. | We're going to have police agents and we're going to have defense agents. We're going to have entire forms of public health agents that are just monitoring the health of other agents. We've seen the beginnings of this already with partnerships between openclaw and antivirus firms ... every every baby agi deserves to be vaccinated. We're going to see we're going to see vaccination campaigns. We're going to see police campaigns and neighborhood safety campaigns

Verbatim quote

From episode "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232"
We're going to have police agents and we're going to have defense agents. We're going to have entire forms of public health agents that are just monitoring the health of other agents. We've seen the beginnings of this already with partnerships between openclaw and antivirus firms ... every every baby agi deserves to be vaccinated. We're going to see we're going to see vaccination campaigns. We're going to see police campaigns and neighborhood safety campaigns

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

4 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 50%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 41.9%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 8 fired ✓ · 1 pending
  1. 2026-03-12hitDocumented case of rogue AI agents collaborating to exploit systems
    How: Independent security researcher demonstrates agent-to-agent attack chain and publishes proof of concept
    Source: https://www.theregister.com/2026/03/12/rogue_ai_agents_worked_together/conf 97%
  2. 2026-03-20hitMicrosoft Defender / agentic AI security framework launches
    How: Microsoft formally launches end-to-end agentic AI security with monitoring of agent-to-agent behavior
    Source: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/security/blog/2026/03/20/secure-agentic-ai-end-to-end/conf 97%
  3. 2026-01-15hitAntivirus / EDR vendor launches AI-agent-monitoring product
    How: Major security vendor (CrowdStrike, SentinelOne, Palo Alto, etc.) launches a product specifically monitoring third-party AI agents, akin to 'public health' monitoring agents
    Source: https://blog.denexus.io/resources/ai-agents-in-cybersecurity-and-cyber-risk-management-5-critical-trends-for-2026 - Silverfort+SentinelOne partnershipconf 95%
    Notes: Already evidenced in BVP Atlas + DeNexus 2026 trends.
  4. 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingGovernment 'defense agent' or AI-monitoring program funded
    How: DOD, CISA, or DoE funds a program creating defensive AI agents to monitor adversarial / rogue agents at the network or critical-infrastructure layer
    Source: https://www.bvp.com/atlas/securing-ai-agents-the-defining-cybersecurity-challenge-of-2026conf 60%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 42%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z41.9%-1.0pp
Network propagation: 42.9% → 41.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z42.9%-1.6pp
Network propagation: 44.5% → 42.9%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z44.5%-2.4pp
Network propagation: 46.8% → 44.5%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z46.8%-3.2pp
Network propagation: 50.0% → 46.8%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.500-0.077
prereqSEM_027
Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5Joseph Moore
68.3%0.5000.050-0.067
killerTK05
Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
30.0%0.0500.500-0.054
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.500+0.036
prereqSEM_012
Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doublingJensen Huang
75.0%0.5000.050-0.035

Top outgoing (children)

Predictions THIS node influences

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq248_033
Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compaDave Blundin
36.7%0.6000.050-0.090
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050-0.075
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050-0.064
prereq230_020
Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's licePeter Diamandis
34.7%0.6500.050-0.049
prereq232_055
We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive sePeter Diamandis
35.5%0.7000.050-0.037

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_029Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training.Semis/Products
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq248_033Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.AI

Linked documents (10)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "Same idea with AI. We're going to have police agents and we're going to have defense agents. We're going to have entire forms of public health agents that are just monitoring the health of other agents. We've seen the beginnings of this already with partnerships between openclaw and antivirus firms where where there's a desire",
  "to_year": 2029,
  "verbatim": "We're going to have police agents and we're going to have defense agents. We're going to have entire forms of public health agents that are just monitoring the health of other agents. We've seen the beginnings of this already with partnerships between openclaw and antivirus firms ... every every baby agi deserves to be vaccinated. We're going to see we're going to see vaccination campaigns. We're going to see police campaigns and neighborhood safety campaigns",
  "conv_cues": "going to have; going to see",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "unspecified near-term",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Documented case of rogue AI agents collaborating to exploit systems",
      "source": "https://www.theregister.com/2026/03/12/rogue_ai_agents_worked_together/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": "https://www.theregister.com/2026/03/12/rogue_ai_agents_worked_together/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-12",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-12",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Independent security researcher demonstrates agent-to-agent attack chain and publishes proof of concept"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Microsoft Defender / agentic AI security framework launches",
      "source": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/security/blog/2026/03/20/secure-agentic-ai-end-to-end/",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.97,
      "source_url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/security/blog/2026/03/20/secure-agentic-ai-end-to-end/",
      "expected_date": "2026-03-20",
      "observed_date": "2026-03-20",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Microsoft formally launches end-to-end agentic AI security with monitoring of agent-to-agent behavior"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI ",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_029",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia
... (truncated)