There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#232 "Ben Horowitz: xAI Executive Exodus, Apple's AI Crisis, The Pace of AI | EP #232" · source
Prediction text
There will be police agents, defense agents, and public health agents monitoring rogue AI agents via defensive co-scaling. | We're going to have police agents and we're going to have defense agents. We're going to have entire forms of public health agents that are just monitoring the health of other agents. We've seen the beginnings of this already with partnerships between openclaw and antivirus firms ... every every baby agi deserves to be vaccinated. We're going to see we're going to see vaccination campaigns. We're going to see police campaigns and neighborhood safety campaigns
Verbatim quote
We're going to have police agents and we're going to have defense agents. We're going to have entire forms of public health agents that are just monitoring the health of other agents. We've seen the beginnings of this already with partnerships between openclaw and antivirus firms ... every every baby agi deserves to be vaccinated. We're going to see we're going to see vaccination campaigns. We're going to see police campaigns and neighborhood safety campaigns
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2026-03-12hitDocumented case of rogue AI agents collaborating to exploit systemsHow: Independent security researcher demonstrates agent-to-agent attack chain and publishes proof of conceptSource: https://www.theregister.com/2026/03/12/rogue_ai_agents_worked_together/conf 97%
- 2026-03-20hitMicrosoft Defender / agentic AI security framework launchesHow: Microsoft formally launches end-to-end agentic AI security with monitoring of agent-to-agent behaviorSource: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/security/blog/2026/03/20/secure-agentic-ai-end-to-end/conf 97%
- 2026-01-15hitAntivirus / EDR vendor launches AI-agent-monitoring productHow: Major security vendor (CrowdStrike, SentinelOne, Palo Alto, etc.) launches a product specifically monitoring third-party AI agents, akin to 'public health' monitoring agentsSource: https://blog.denexus.io/resources/ai-agents-in-cybersecurity-and-cyber-risk-management-5-critical-trends-for-2026 - Silverfort+SentinelOne partnershipconf 95%Notes: Already evidenced in BVP Atlas + DeNexus 2026 trends.
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-12-31pendingGovernment 'defense agent' or AI-monitoring program fundedHow: DOD, CISA, or DoE funds a program creating defensive AI agents to monitor adversarial / rogue agents at the network or critical-infrastructure layerSource: https://www.bvp.com/atlas/securing-ai-agents-the-defining-cybersecurity-challenge-of-2026conf 60%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | -0.077 |
| prereq | SEM_027 Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $5 — Joseph Moore | 68.3% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.067 |
| killer | TK05 Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | 30.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | -0.054 |
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.500 | +0.036 |
| prereq | SEM_012 Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling — Jensen Huang | 75.0% | 0.500 | 0.050 | -0.035 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 248_033 Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compa — Dave Blundin | 36.7% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.090 |
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.075 |
| prereq | 242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.064 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.049 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.037 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_029 | Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training. | Semis/Products | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 248_033 | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. | AI | — |
Linked documents (10)
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1GLT9_tag0",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"context": "Same idea with AI. We're going to have police agents and we're going to have defense agents. We're going to have entire forms of public health agents that are just monitoring the health of other agents. We've seen the beginnings of this already with partnerships between openclaw and antivirus firms where where there's a desire",
"to_year": 2029,
"verbatim": "We're going to have police agents and we're going to have defense agents. We're going to have entire forms of public health agents that are just monitoring the health of other agents. We've seen the beginnings of this already with partnerships between openclaw and antivirus firms ... every every baby agi deserves to be vaccinated. We're going to see we're going to see vaccination campaigns. We're going to see police campaigns and neighborhood safety campaigns",
"conv_cues": "going to have; going to see",
"direction": "HAPPEN",
"from_year": 2026,
"timeframe": "unspecified near-term",
"conv_level": "HIGH",
"milestones": [
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Documented case of rogue AI agents collaborating to exploit systems",
"source": "https://www.theregister.com/2026/03/12/rogue_ai_agents_worked_together/",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -9,
"source_id": null,
"confidence": 0.97,
"source_url": "https://www.theregister.com/2026/03/12/rogue_ai_agents_worked_together/",
"expected_date": "2026-03-12",
"observed_date": "2026-03-12",
"research_origin": "deep_research",
"measurement_criterion": "Independent security researcher demonstrates agent-to-agent attack chain and publishes proof of concept"
},
{
"kind": "llm_pre_event",
"label": "Microsoft Defender / agentic AI security framework launches",
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"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.4,
"ordinal": -8,
"source_id": null,
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"source_url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/security/blog/2026/03/20/secure-agentic-ai-end-to-end/",
"expected_date": "2026-03-20",
"observed_date": "2026-03-20",
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},
{
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"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -5,
"source_id": "SEM_014",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI ",
"status": "hit",
"weight": 0.5,
"ordinal": -4,
"source_id": "SEM_029",
"expected_date": "2026-04-29",
"observed_date": "2026-04-29"
},
{
"kind": "prereq",
"label": "Nvidia
... (truncated)