Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months.

Remaining research math problems will be solved within next couple months. | If it can solve six out of 10, it can solve all within the next couple months. It'll happen in massive parallel.

If it can solve six out of 10, it can solve all within the next couple months. It'll happen in massive parallel.

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "all 10",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HklyjXKYFng",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "here it'll happen instantaneously. If it can solve six out of 10, it can solve all within the next couple months. It'll happen in massive parallel. There's no limit to the to the number of parallel agents up to the to the number of GPUs that are available.",
  "to_year": 2026,
  "verbatim": "If it can solve six out of 10, it can solve all within the next couple months. It'll happen in massive parallel.",
  "conv_cues": "it can; it'll happen",
  "direction": "HAPPEN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "next couple months",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Frontier models score >=99% on AIME 2025/2026 competition math",
      "notes": "HIT for COMPETITION math; prediction targets RESEARCH math which is harder.",
      "source": "https://benchlm.ai/math",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://benchlm.ai/math",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Top frontier models (GPT-5.4, Claude Opus 4.6, Gemini 3 Flash) all score >=95% on AIME 2025 / 2026"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "FrontierMath Tier 1-3 solve rate >40% by GPT-5.2/Claude Opus 4.6",
      "notes": "Mid-progress: prediction targets ALL 10 of a specific problem set; FrontierMath is broader. Partial validation only.",
      "source": "https://epoch.ai/frontiermath",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.9,
      "source_url": "https://epoch.ai/frontiermath",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Public benchmark confirms top frontier models solve >=40% of FrontierMath Tier 1-3 problems"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Aletheia (Gemini Deep Think) achieves publishable PhD-level result in arithmetic geometry",
      "source": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/ai-math-benchmarks",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.85,
      "source_url": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/ai-math-benchmarks",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Google DeepMind publicly announces Aletheia produces publishable research-grade result in mathematics"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Clau
... (truncated)