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235_015predictionAIAI-scaling

GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source

Prior probability
45.0%
Current probability
35.4%
evolves via intake + LBP
Conviction
3/5
Signal quality
C
Resolution
pending
Window
2027-06-01 – 2027-06-30
Edges in / out
10 / 5
Tickers exposed
37

Prediction text

GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. | Alex, you said this. I think you're the first person I ever heard from it saying, look, you know, the equivalent of a GPT5 is going to be maybe 30 40 billion parameters, but it could get as low as one or two billion truly because right now when they train that caliber of model, it has all this junk knowledge in it too.

Verbatim quote

From episode "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235"
Alex, you said this. I think you're the first person I ever heard from it saying, look, you know, the equivalent of a GPT5 is going to be maybe 30 40 billion parameters, but it could get as low as one or two billion truly because right now when they train that caliber of model, it has all this junk knowledge in it too.

Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross

κ + Brier as of 2026-05-22
κ (discount)
0.844
Brier
0.0341
excellent
Hits / Misses
6 / 1
of 11 resolved
Hit rate
54.5%
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)

Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).

Reference class

Not linked

This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.

Probability over time

5 prob_history rows
0%25%50%75%100%prior 45%2026-04-302026-05-032026-05-10
intake v2milestone miss sweeplbp propagationreference class assignedlegacy v1prior_prob (analyst seed)current = 35.4%

Milestone chain

Pre-event signals (upstream prereqs + window checkpoints) → resolution event → downstream cascades. Status/dates update from linked nodes; re-derive nightly via scripts/ops/derive_milestones.py.
Leading chain: 5 fired ✓ · 1 overdue ⏱ · 2 pending
  1. 2025-12-01 → 2026-09-30overdueOpen-weights 30-40B model matches GPT-5 on aggregated benchmarks
    How: An open or proprietary 30-40B parameter model achieves parity (within 2pp) with GPT-5 on MMLU-Pro / GPQA / HumanEval composite.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
  2. 2026-01-01 → 2026-12-31pendingSub-10B parameter model achieves prior-frontier (GPT-4 class) performance
    How: Open or closed 1-10B model matches GPT-4 baseline on standard benchmarks per HF leaderboard or vendor card.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
  3. 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFrontier-quality 1-2B parameter model demonstrated
    How: Vendor or research lab demonstrates 1-2B model within 5pp of GPT-5 on at least one major reasoning benchmark.
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
  4. 2027-06-22pendingMillion-parameter narrow-domain model matches frontier in vertical
    How: Sub-10M parameter specialist model documented to match GPT-5 on a narrow vertical (e.g., legal redline, ICD-10 coding).
    Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 30%

What if this resolves?

Clamp this prediction TRUE or FALSE and run a counterfactual Gibbs sample. Surfaces the predictions whose marginals shift most under that assumption.
(live posterior: 35%)

Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"

Evidence chain

Every probability update with full Bayesian provenance — chronological, latest first
LBP2026-05-10T02:00:02Z35.4%+1.4pp
Network propagation: 33.9% → 35.4%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00584 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run e5c18d29
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep2026-05-09T22:14:10Z33.9%-4.7pp
metadata_milestone_miss_sweep bayesian_v2 n=1 inside=0.339 blend=0.339 LLR=-0.205 κ=0.84 no_blend
Raw metadata
{
  "trf": 1,
  "kappa": 0.8438,
  "base_rate": null,
  "predictor": "Alex Wissner-Gross",
  "total_llr": -0.4054651081081644,
  "grace_days": 7,
  "bayesian_v2": true,
  "prior_logit": -0.4605117964938232,
  "bayes_factor": "1.2:1 against",
  "blend_reason": "no reference_class linked",
  "inside_prior": 0.3868644185312044,
  "kappa_source": "predictor_table",
  "n_milestones": 1,
  "blend_applied": false,
  "contributions": [
    {
      "llr": -0.4054651081081644,
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "kappa": 0.50628,
      "label": "Open-weights 30-40B model matches GPT-5 on aggregated benchmarks",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "strength": "weak",
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://www.marktechpost.com/2026/02/01/nvidia-ai-brings-nemotron-3-nano-30b-to-nvfp4-with-quantization-aware-distillation-qad-for-efficient-reasoning-inference/",
      "adjusted_llr": -0.20527887493300145,
      "expected_date": "2026-05-01",
      "measurement_criterion": "An open or proprietary 30-40B parameter model achieves parity (within 2pp) with GPT-5 on MMLU-Pro / GPQA / HumanEval composite."
    }
  ],
  "evidence_kind": "metadata_milestone_miss_sweep",
  "inside_source": "history_v2",
  "inside_weight": 0.3,
  "outside_weight": 0.7,
  "posterior_prob": 0.33944001968393095,
  "posterior_logit": -0.6657906714268247,
  "predictor_brier": 0.03413,
  "inside_posterior": 0.33944001968393095,
  "blended_posterior": 0.33944001968393095,
  "reference_class_id": null,
  "total_adjusted_llr": -0.20527887493300145,
  "predictor_n_resolved": 11
}
LBP2026-05-03T02:00:01Z38.7%-1.4pp
Network propagation: 40.1% → 38.7%
6-iter LBP, residual 0.00677 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v3 · run 1a683ac9
LBP2026-04-30T16:39:51Z40.1%-2.1pp
Network propagation: 42.2% → 40.1%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v2 · run 0c8a4ea3
LBP2026-04-30T02:18:57Z42.2%-2.8pp
Network propagation: 45.0% → 42.2%
5-iter LBP, residual 0.00825 · damping 0.5, w_intrinsic 0.5 · method lbp_v1 · run 592311ef

Network propagation neighbors

Top edges sorted by latest LBP cross-impact
All propagation →

Top incoming (parents)

Edges that influence THIS node's belief

KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
killerTK03
AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)
10.0%0.0500.450+0.056
killerTK02
AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
12.0%0.0500.450+0.048
killerTK09
Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
35.0%0.0500.450-0.044
prereqSEM_014
Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated Jensen Huang
86.1%0.4500.050+0.037
killerTK01
AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
15.0%0.0500.450+0.036

Top outgoing (children)

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KindNodeTheir probP(c|s=T)P(c|s=F)Δ implied
prereq244_019
Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsPeter Diamandis
48.4%0.9200.050-0.121
prereq248_033
Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compaDave Blundin
36.7%0.6000.050-0.119
prereq242_031
Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2Peter Diamandis
36.1%0.6500.050-0.095
prereq230_020
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34.7%0.6500.050-0.081
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35.5%0.7000.050-0.071

Ticker exposure

37 ticker(s) linked

Beneficiaries (24)

MUWULFIRENEQIXALABAPLDASMIYASMLPLABNVDANBISCRWVAAPLAMTAMZNDELLGOOGLIRMLNVGYMETAMSFTORCLSFTBYSTX

Adverse (6)

ACNGENCHGGIBMWNSLRN

Prerequisites (10)

Predictions that must hit first
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereqSEM_011Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_027Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.Capital Markets
prereqSEM_014Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).Manufacturing
prereqSEM_029Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training.Semis/Products
prereqSEM_012Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering.AI/Manufacturing
killerTK09Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall)
killerTK05Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028)
killerTK01AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall)
killerTK02AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption)
killerTK03AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze)

Dependents (5)

Predictions enabled by this
TypePredTitleDomainLag
prereq244_019Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 yearsAuto/Transport
prereq232_055We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds.AI
prereq242_031Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 yearsMarkets/Stocks
prereq230_020Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license.Auto/Transport
prereq248_033Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today.AI

Linked documents (5)

Auto-generated by cosine similarity from Polymarket / Manifold / EDGAR / GDELT
SimSourceTitleMarket probPolarityReviewedPublished
0.588arxivGPart: End-to-End Isometric Fine-Tuning via Global Parameter Partitioningmentionspending2026-05-14
0.588manifoldWhat amounts of mana will manifolders managram me?mentionspending2026-05-24
0.574manifoldWill I solve a TSTST problem with MMP?8%mentionspending2026-05-04
0.563gdeltarticle 033592a1 2509 5cc8 b25f 1d2c39a9265c.htmlmentionspending2026-04-30
0.545arxivBPS Non-Renormalization in the BMN Matrix Modelmentionspending2026-06-03

Raw metadata

From Thesis_Timeline_v1.0_FINAL workbook
{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": "30-40B parameters, potentially 1-2B or millions",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "caveats": "After stripping junk knowledge",
  "context": "look, you know, the equivalent of a GPT5 is going to be maybe 30 40 billion parameters, but it could get as low as one or two billion truly because right now when they train that caliber of model, it has all this junk knowledge in it too. I I could imagine scenarios where it's only a few million parameter equivalent that's sort of the core micro kernel of AGI or super intelligence",
  "to_year": 2028,
  "cited_by": "Dave Blundin",
  "verbatim": "Alex, you said this. I think you're the first person I ever heard from it saying, look, you know, the equivalent of a GPT5 is going to be maybe 30 40 billion parameters, but it could get as low as one or two billion truly because right now when they train that caliber of model, it has all this junk knowledge in it too.",
  "conv_cues": "going to be; could get",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "unspecified future",
  "conv_level": "MEDIUM",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI ",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_029",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Open-weights 30-40B model matches GPT-5 on aggregated benchmarks",
      "source": "deep_research_enriched",
      "status": "overdue",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.6,
      "source_url": "https://www.marktechpost.com/2026/02/01/nvidia-ai-brings-nemotron-3-nano-30b-to-nvfp4-with-quantization-aware-distillation-qad-for-efficient-reasoning-inference/",
      "expected_date": "2026-05-01",
      "miss_emitted_at": "2026-05-09T22:14:10.596691+00:00",
      "miss_emitted_by": "metadata_milestone_sweep",
      "research_origin": "training",
      "expected_date_range": {
        "to": "2026-09-30",
        "from": "2025-12-01"
      },
      "measurement_criterion": "An open or proprietary 30-40B parameter model achieves parity (within 2pp) with GPT-5 on MMLU-Pro / GPQA / HumanEval composite."
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Sub-10B parameter model achieves prior-frontier (GPT-4 class) per
... (truncated)