GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross · ep#235 "Amazon's $35B AGI Ultimatum to OpenAI & Anthropic Drops AI Safety | EP #235" · source
Prediction text
GPT5-caliber model could shrink to 30-40B parameters, potentially as low as 1-2B or millions. | Alex, you said this. I think you're the first person I ever heard from it saying, look, you know, the equivalent of a GPT5 is going to be maybe 30 40 billion parameters, but it could get as low as one or two billion truly because right now when they train that caliber of model, it has all this junk knowledge in it too.
Verbatim quote
Alex, you said this. I think you're the first person I ever heard from it saying, look, you know, the equivalent of a GPT5 is going to be maybe 30 40 billion parameters, but it could get as low as one or two billion truly because right now when they train that caliber of model, it has all this junk knowledge in it too.
Predictor: Alex Wissner-Gross
Calibration plot (stated vs observed)
Evidence about this node from Alex Wissner-Gross is multiplied by κ in /api/intake. Lower κ = less weight; floors at 0.10 (effectively silenced) and caps at 1.00 (full weight).
Reference class
This node isn't linked to a reference class. The Bayesian update applies without outside-view blending.
Probability over time
Milestone chain
- 2025-12-01 → 2026-09-30overdueOpen-weights 30-40B model matches GPT-5 on aggregated benchmarksHow: An open or proprietary 30-40B parameter model achieves parity (within 2pp) with GPT-5 on MMLU-Pro / GPQA / HumanEval composite.Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 60%
- 2026-01-01 → 2026-12-31pendingSub-10B parameter model achieves prior-frontier (GPT-4 class) performanceHow: Open or closed 1-10B model matches GPT-4 baseline on standard benchmarks per HF leaderboard or vendor card.Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 70%
- 2026-06-01 → 2027-06-30pendingFrontier-quality 1-2B parameter model demonstratedHow: Vendor or research lab demonstrates 1-2B model within 5pp of GPT-5 on at least one major reasoning benchmark.Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 40%
- 2027-06-22pendingMillion-parameter narrow-domain model matches frontier in verticalHow: Sub-10M parameter specialist model documented to match GPT-5 on a narrow vertical (e.g., legal redline, ICD-10 coding).Source: deep_research_enrichedconf 30%
What if this resolves?
Click a button to clamp this prediction and run a Gibbs sample. Returns the predictions whose marginals shift most. ~30s per run; ideal for stress-testing "if X resolves, what else moves?"
Evidence chain
Raw metadata
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"weight": 0.4,
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}Network propagation neighbors
Top incoming (parents)
Edges that influence THIS node's belief
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| killer | TK03 AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | 10.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.056 |
| killer | TK02 AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | 12.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.048 |
| killer | TK09 Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | 35.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | -0.044 |
| prereq | SEM_014 Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated — Jensen Huang | 86.1% | 0.450 | 0.050 | +0.037 |
| killer | TK01 AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | 15.0% | 0.050 | 0.450 | +0.036 |
Top outgoing (children)
Predictions THIS node influences
| Kind | Node | Their prob | P(c|s=T) | P(c|s=F) | Δ implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years — Peter Diamandis | 48.4% | 0.920 | 0.050 | -0.121 |
| prereq | 248_033 Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compa — Dave Blundin | 36.7% | 0.600 | 0.050 | -0.119 |
| prereq | 242_031 Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2 — Peter Diamandis | 36.1% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.095 |
| prereq | 230_020 Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's lice — Peter Diamandis | 34.7% | 0.650 | 0.050 | -0.081 |
| prereq | 232_055 We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive se — Peter Diamandis | 35.5% | 0.700 | 0.050 | -0.071 |
Ticker exposure
Beneficiaries (24)
Adverse (6)
Prerequisites (10)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | SEM_011 | Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_027 | Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon. | Capital Markets | — |
| prereq | SEM_014 | Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025). | Manufacturing | — |
| prereq | SEM_029 | Blackwell RTX PRO 5000 (72GB) engineered with 50% memory boost over previous generation — deliberate architectural concession for larger AI training. | Semis/Products | — |
| prereq | SEM_012 | Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) across engineering. | AI/Manufacturing | — |
| killer | TK09 | Energy Grid Cap (Data Center Power Wall) | — | — |
| killer | TK05 | Rate Regime Persistence (10y > 5% through 2028) | — | — |
| killer | TK01 | AGI Capability Plateau (2026-27 Training Stall) | — | — |
| killer | TK02 | AI Compute Supply Shock (TSMC/Taiwan Disruption) | — | — |
| killer | TK03 | AI Regulatory Moratorium (EU/US Capability Freeze) | — | — |
Dependents (5)
| Type | Pred | Title | Domain | Lag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| prereq | 244_019 | Peter's son won't need a driver's license in 2 years | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 232_055 | We're exiting the industrial age permanently as recursive self-improvement unfolds. | AI | — |
| prereq | 242_031 | Most large companies' business models will be disrupted in 2-5 years | Markets/Stocks | — |
| prereq | 230_020 | Peter's 14-year-old son Milan will never get a driver's license. | Auto/Transport | — |
| prereq | 248_033 | Superhuman AI will make BCI-enhanced humans irrelevant compared to AI 2 years from today. | AI | — |
Linked documents (5)
| Sim | Source | Title | Market prob | Polarity | Reviewed | Published |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.588 | arxiv | GPart: End-to-End Isometric Fine-Tuning via Global Parameter Partitioning | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-14 |
| 0.588 | manifold | What amounts of mana will manifolders managram me? | — | mentions | pending | 2026-05-24 |
| 0.574 | manifold | Will I solve a TSTST problem with MMP? | 8% | mentions | pending | 2026-05-04 |
| 0.563 | gdelt | article 033592a1 2509 5cc8 b25f 1d2c39a9265c.html | — | mentions | pending | 2026-04-30 |
| 0.545 | arxiv | BPS Non-Renormalization in the BMN Matrix Model | — | mentions | pending | 2026-06-03 |
Raw metadata
{
"nia": false,
"qty": "30-40B parameters, potentially 1-2B or millions",
"url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8X6kp-pcKs",
"mode": "PREDICTION",
"role": "Host",
"caveats": "After stripping junk knowledge",
"context": "look, you know, the equivalent of a GPT5 is going to be maybe 30 40 billion parameters, but it could get as low as one or two billion truly because right now when they train that caliber of model, it has all this junk knowledge in it too. I I could imagine scenarios where it's only a few million parameter equivalent that's sort of the core micro kernel of AGI or super intelligence",
"to_year": 2028,
"cited_by": "Dave Blundin",
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... (truncated)