Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain)

Everyone is underestimating the next year of AI improvements (more than 2x gain) | that's also why everyone's really underestimating the next year because we did a 1000x like what are you expecting in the next year? Oh 2x like what are you talking about?

that's also why everyone's really underestimating the next year because we did a 1000x like what are you expecting in the next year? Oh 2x like what are you talking about?

Beneficiaries (24)

Adverse (6)

{
  "nia": false,
  "qty": ">>2x",
  "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOGHXAfvK8w",
  "mode": "PREDICTION",
  "role": "Host",
  "context": "that's also why everyone's really underestimating the next year because we did a 1000x like what are you expecting in the next year? Oh 2x like what are you talking about? Yeah, it's not it's not going to happen that way.",
  "to_year": 2027,
  "verbatim": "that's also why everyone's really underestimating the next year because we did a 1000x like what are you expecting in the next year? Oh 2x like what are you talking about?",
  "conv_cues": "not going to happen that way",
  "direction": "DOWN",
  "from_year": 2026,
  "timeframe": "Next year (2026-2027)",
  "conv_level": "HIGH",
  "milestones": [
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "ARC-AGI-2 doubles year-over-year",
      "source": "LM Council Benchmarks — 'Gemini 3.1 Pro 77.1% on ARC-AGI-2, double predecessor'",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -9,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://lmcouncil.ai/benchmarks",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-15",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-15",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "Best ARC-AGI-2 score reaches 77.1% (Gemini 3.1 Pro), double its predecessor"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "GPT-5.5 ships with massive coding/reasoning benchmark gains",
      "notes": "HIT — direct evidence of >2x improvement on long-context reasoning benchmark.",
      "source": "Artificial Analysis — 'OpenAI's GPT-5.5 is the new leading AI model'",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -8,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.99,
      "source_url": "https://artificialanalysis.ai/articles/openai-gpt5-5-is-the-new-leading-AI-model",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-23",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-23",
      "research_origin": "deep_research",
      "measurement_criterion": "OpenAI ships GPT-5.5 scoring 82.7% on Terminal-Bench 2.0 (up from 75.1% GPT-5.4) and 74.0% on 1M-token MRCR v2 (up from 36.6%)"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia became the world's first $5 trillion company (late 2025), operating a near-monopoly on advanced AI chips.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -7,
      "source_id": "SEM_011",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia Data Center revenue +66% YoY, contributing ~90% of $57B fiscal Q3 revenue; >$4.5T market cap entirely underpinned by AI silicon.",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -6,
      "source_id": "SEM_027",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia's Arizona-based TSMC factory successfully fabricated cutting-edge semiconductors on US soil for first time in decades (October 2025).",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -5,
      "source_id": "SEM_014",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "prereq",
      "label": "Nvidia quadrupled chip production output while only doubling human headcount — achieved by deploying AI coding tools (Cursor, Claude Code) a",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.5,
      "ordinal": -4,
      "source_id": "SEM_012",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-29",
      "observed_date": "2026-04-29"
    },
    {
      "kind": "llm_pre_event",
      "label": "Humanity's Last Exam top score crosses 50% threshold",
      "source": "IEEE Spectrum — 'Stanford's AI Index 2026' + LM Council Benchmarks",
      "status": "hit",
      "weight": 0.4,
      "ordinal": -3,
      "source_id": null,
      "confidence": 0.95,
      "source_url": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/state-of-ai-index-2026",
      "expected_date": "2026-04-30",
      "observe
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